There's a fourth-down revolution happening. Here's why Vic Fangio and the Broncos need to be at the center of it

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Moments after the Broncos’ 27-13 dismantling of the New York Giants last Sunday, Vic Fangio recalled the sound he heard from his assistant coaches over his headset when he brought up the notion of going for it on fourth-and-2 from the Giants 49-yard line as the second-quarter clock drained into its final 60 seconds.

The silence didn’t mean a lack of support — at least not for the man responsible for making the fourth-down play-call.

“My role is to pick a play that we’re going to run,” offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur said, “so I told him just mark me down as yes.”

Teddy Bridgewater and Courtland Sutton justified the call with a 14-yard connection that launched the Broncos on a trajectory to their first touchdown of the day and a 10-7 halftime advantage. They would never relinquish the lead after that.

They had gone for it on fourth down once before. They did so once again. Both succeeded, with the final third-down try ending in a Bridgewater-to-Albert Okwuegbunam touchdown connection.

All of the choices were clear calls from Fangio. As Shurmur explained Thursday, when Fangio makes that call, he says, “Pat, we’re going for it.”

Then, Shurmur goes to work.

“So, my concern is OK it’s fourth and whatever, what play do I want to call for us,” Shurmur explained. “I think it’s good. I think it’s strategic to go for it.”

“There are certain times when you don’t and there are certain times that you do. My responsibility is to make sure when the boss wants to go for it, we do our very best to put the players in the best position to make it work.”

Fangio has called the choice a “gut feeling.”

But for many teams, the fourth-down choice is based in analytics.

“You have to get the right situation in the right field position at the right time,” Fangio said. “Some of those can be deceiving — fourth quarter, way behind.

“It’s the ones that have a major impact on the game in the first three quarters of a close game that you really take a close look at.”

So, let’s do just that and focus on the first three quarters of a close, competitive game. We’ll define that as being within 16 points — the maximum two-score gap — either way.

In Week 1, there were 30 such plays — not including special-teams plays that went askew. In the same week last season, there were 19, with a high of 24 such calls in Week 8.

The Broncos and Browns tied for the league lead with three such third-down attempts apiece — and they converted all of them. Meanwhile, the rest of the NFL was 11-of-24. Thanks to the Broncos and Browns, the success rate was 56.7 percent. Last year, the season-long success rate was 62.7 percent.

Throughout the 2020 season, there were 273 fourth-down attempts in the scenario Fangio described — an average of 1.07 per game (combined for both teams in the contest), according to data from pro-football-reference.com. That rate increased to 1.88 per game last weekend.

But what is more revealing is the number of fourth-down attempts when the game was within two scores in the first three quarters. The data shows that a once-gradual trend has accelerated in the last three years.

• 2010: 161, 0.63 per game
• 2011: 121, 0.47 per game
• 2012: 144, 0.56 per game
• 2013: 163, 0.64 per game
• 2014: 133, 0.52 per game
• 2015: 162, 0.63 per game
• 2016: 188, 0.73 per game
• 2017: 184, 0.72 per game
• 2018: 201, 0.79 per game
• 2019: 233, 0.91 per game
• 2020: 273, 1.07 per game
• 2021: 30, 1.88 per game (through one week)

Having 30 of these types of plays in a week around the league? Do not expect that in the coming weeks.

But do expect the fourth-down revolution to continue and to see that season-long rate continue to increase.

“There’s no doubt people are more open to it than maybe in the past,” Fangio said. “Again, it’s the negative effects of not getting it in real-time situations — not a fourth-quarter, big score deficit — that can be negative too, and far outweigh the positive in some cases.

“Luckily for us, the three we did worked out so I’ve got some equity built up.”

Indeed, the Broncos do. But they would be wise to not lose their nerve when — inevitably — a fourth-down try in the game situation Fangio cited fails. Falling victim to focusing on the single negative result rather than the proper process ensures a lesser outcome in the long term.

Fangio and the Broncos need to maintain their nerve and keep going for it.

The man calling the offensive plays approves wholeheartedly.

“Well, I love it, so just mark me down for, ‘Yeah, let’s do it,’” Shurmur said.