The Worst Case Scenario for the 2020 Colorado Rockies

If the 60-game sprint leaves the 2020 Colorado Rockies with strained hamstrings and wicked case of plantar fasciitis, it won’t be a major shock.

A disappointment, yes. A surprise, no.

With an abbreviated and unpredictable season that increases favorable outcomes for even the worst teams – Baltimore and Miami could actually slip into the postseason – not a lot would need to happen to spoil the Rockies’ year.

Colorado still has a roster comprised of many key players who made consecutive postseasons in 2017-18, which makes one think it could be time for the third Rocktober in just four seasons.

It’s with that same rationale that one must consider the polar opposite of success: a last place finish in the NL West.

This possibility is not one begging to be acknowledged, but someone has to do it and all must be prepared for its undeniable possibility.

Foundational Failures

Colorado has three All-Stars on offense that have been consistent with their production at the plate the last few seasons: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story.

Simply put, the Rockies will take a hit in the win column for any of those nationally known entities to be any less than their benchmark.

Arenado has been incredibly consistent the past five seasons and is the least likely to suffer any setbacks. The five-time Silver Slugger Award winner has been known to fall into brief slumps during the summer months – something that can be said of almost any player not named Mike Trout – and the shortened season could magnify such a downturn in production.

Blackmon has gotten himself ready for Opening Day in a short amount time as he missed the first two weeks of Summer Camp due to testing positive for COVID-19. Should he not be fully recovered, which would be more than understood, or if age begins to be a factor, the 34-year-old could also contribute negatively towards a worst-case scenario.

Story, the youngest of the trio, put together consecutive full-seasons of offensive output after his rookie campaign was cut short at just 97 games in 2016. Much like Arenado and Blackmon, he’s been too consistent for a long enough stretch to have any worries.

If any of these three stars hit the injured list, even for the minimum 10 days, Colorado could take a major hit. With each game having a value of 2.7 times what a game is normally worth, a short IL stint is akin to missing a month during a normal 162-game season.

David Dahl was also selected to the Midsummer Classic last season, his first of what hopes to be many. However, Dahl has yet to play more than 100 games in a season and prove his abilities over a full year and in consecutive campaigns.

He’s a natural fit as the team’s new leadoff hitter, so should he not be the Dahl of 2019, the entire lineup will suffer from any rejiggering. There’s also the matter of being immunocompromised, so any uptick in positive COVID-19 tests in the clubhouse could result in him stepping away from the team as a safety concern.

On the pitching side, another three-headed monster exists, albeit one that could become a nightmare for the Rockies rather than one that serves to do their bidding against other western division rivals.

For all the well-earned praise heaped upon starting pitchers Jon Gray and German Márquez, the duo has made 30 or more starts once each in the last three seasons. Colorado can simply not afford for either of their aces to miss a single start during this heightened campaign. Missing any starts will be paramount to entering battle without a general.

Scott Oberg’s IL stint to open the year only heaps more pressure upon 2019 saviors Carlos Estévez and Jairo Díaz while all but assuring Wade Davis will need to be perfect.

It’s not a pleasant scenario to imagine by any stretch of the imagination, but it is one with its pessimistic possibilities.

Supplemental Missteps

Many within the game agree that the next logical recipient of stardom on this roster is Ryan McMahon. In a normal world, RyMac would be the fifth All-Star in the lineup and, when paired with the fellow left-handed hitting Daniel Murphy, give the Rockies as formidable a lineup one-through-six as any team in MLB.

For all intents and purposes, McMahon was a rookie in 2019. He had spells in the majors in 2017-18, but he was only three weeks from having rookie eligibility last season. So, it wouldn’t be too far fetched to think that the dreaded sophomore slump would strike the 25-year-old infielder.

Daniel Murphy was besieged with a fractured finger for five months of the season, preventing the career .298 hitter to become everything the organization hoped when they signed him to a deal and allowed DJ LeMahieu to ply his trade with the Yankees for the same contract. Is the 35-year-old able to contribute like purple first baggers of the past such as Andrés Galarraga, Todd Helton or Justin Morneau?

Raimel Tapia and Sam Hilliard represent two sides of the same coin: young, left-handed hitting outfielders with palpable upside. The presence of veteran corner outfielder Matt Kemp could reduce playing time and, thus, stunt any potential for growth.

There’s also the matter of the question marks hanging over the final three spots in the rotation.

Kyle Freeland will not repeat 2019, but there are strong odds suggesting he won’t repeat 2018 either. Antonio Senzatela is now a grizzled veteran at age-25 and he’ll need to pitch like it. The fifth starter will need consistency as the caravan of capable hurlers is dwindling, lest the bullpen be taxed to make up for shortcomings.

Relievers. Few teams in the game go into the season with immense confidence in their ‘pen. And yet few teams are successful without solidity for that corps.

The loss of Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee could actually hurt the Rockies in 2020, as reliever depth could be critical for the first weeks of the season as starters build up abilities and lengthen their outings.

All the Wrong Things

A lot of little things need to go wrong in a worst-case scenario. If the main offensive cogs produce and the top of the rotation provides exactly what is expected, Colorado can still suffer through 2020 if enough of the auxiliary factors go to pot.

Regardless of the elements the Rockies can control, there are nine teams opposing them over the next two months.

The Los Angeles Dodgers will be as good as advertised and the Arizona Diamondbacks could be back ahead of schedule after the loss of several key figures.

The real pivotal club that could make Colorado’s season a living hell are the San Diego Padres. Should their mix of uber prospects and high-priced veterans deliver on their promise, the pummeling of all things purple might extend well beyond this season.

In the AL West, only the Seattle Mariners appear to be pushovers as the franchise continues to rebuild with an exciting group of youngsters. Because of that, the 17 games remaining against AL Champion Astros, star-packed Angels, always-interesting Athletics and improved Texas Rangers could make the abbreviated calendar more painful than the previously scheduled series versus the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals.

Silver Linings

Suffering through a disappointing season wouldn’t be all that bad. After all, the asterisk that plagues 2020 can be used to Colorado’s advantage.

While it would mean the first consecutive losing seasons since 2015-16, the results can be skewed by supporters because of the small sample size. Considering the reigning World Series Champions started the year at 19-31 before going on a run for the ages, it will be hard to make too many conclusions from 60 games.

No major players will enter free agency in the offseason and the entirety of a strong, young core will come back for a more complete run next season.

The best part about being bad for nine weeks: the 2021 MLB Draft.

Regardless of one’s stance on tanking, there’s a lot of evidence that this type of strategy can improve an organization in the long run, especially middle-to-small market teams.

Since 2009, the top two picks in the Rule 4 Draft have produced a cadre of superstars: Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Kris Bryant, and Alex Bregman. Extend the search to the top five selections and even more All-Stars and better-than-average players emerge.

For the first time in the history of sports, you won’t have to waste hundreds of dollars going to the ballpark to be disappointed in your team in order for it earn draft picks that will benefit the franchise several years later.

It’s unknown at this point whether or not Colorado will elevate to the best of their abilities or deflate to the worst.

Ultimately, I guess that’s why they play the game.