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On Tuesday, we highlighted why the Nuggets selecting a guard in the first round seems likely. But Nuggets president Tim Connelly has never been afraid to take the best player available at his particular draft slot. In the 2020 draft, Denver didn’t need another guard, but Connelly traded back into the first round to nab RJ Hampton at No. 24 overall because he believed in his scout and Hampton’s talent.
That worked out pretty well. The Nuggets were able to center a trade package around Hampton at last season’s trade deadline that brought them Aaron Gordon, who looked like the missing piece until Jamal Murray’s ACL injury derailed a potential dream season.
If there’s a player — even a wing or big man — that the Nuggets deem as good value at No. 26 or elsewhere in the first or second round, you should never be surprised to see Connelly get aggressive.
Here’s how the DNVR Nuggets crew ranks the available wings and big men ahead of Thursday night’s draft.
Wings/Forwards
1. Scottie Barnes | Florida St. | Fresh. | 19-years-old | 6-9, 7-3 wingspan
10.3 pts (50.3 FG%, 27.5 3P%, 62.1 FT%), 4 rebs, 4.1 asts, 1.5 stls in 24.8 mins
NBA Comparison: Pascal Siakam
Strengths: All-around premier defender, ultra-high IQ in all facets
Weaknesses: Shooting
The skinny: Barnes does everything well except shoot, and even if he never shoots he could still be an All-Star because of his defense, passing, and versatility (cue the Ben Simmons jokes.) He pretty much played point guard for Florida State last season and is as unique of a prospect as you’ll find in this draft. He can defend all five positions. He can pass and has great vision. I’m a fan because I love unique, high-level prospects. Barnes is that through and through even without a jumper.
2. Jonathan Kuminga | G League | 19-years-old | 6-8, 7-0 wingspan
NBA Comparison: Jeff Green
15.8 pts (38.7 FG%, 24.6 3P%, 62.5 FT%), 7.2 rebs, 2.7 asts, 1 stl in 32.8 mins
Strengths: Sky-high ceiling, good athlete who can handle
Weaknesses: Inconsistent shot, defense comes and goes
The skinny: If you’re drafting Kuminga you believe in his upside, not what he can do right now. He’s got the tools, the NBA frame, the shooting form and the intangibles to be a very, very high level player. But when will he put it all together? Will the GM who drafts Kuminga in the top-10 be able to keep his job long enough to reap the benefits? This feels like a situation where the team Kuminga gets drafted to really matters. He needs a strong player development program and good coaching to be successful.
3. James Bouknight | UConn | Soph. | 20-years-old | 6-5, 6-8 wingspan
18.7 pts (44.7 FG%, 29.3 3P%, 77.8 FT%), 5.7 rebs, 1.8 asts, 1.1 stls in 31.7 mins
NBA Comparison: CJ McCollum
Strengths: NBA offensive game, good athlete and crafty ball handler
Weaknesses: Streaky shooter with poor shot selection, inconsistent on-ball defender
The skinny: Bouknight’s going to be a very good scorer at the next level and his game looks like it might better be suited for the NBA than college. He’ll be a good shooter too even though he wasn’t at UConn. He’s also wired to score with a silky pull-up game. Bouknight could eventually average 20 per game depending on his situation in the NBA, but he’s got so-so vision and is just an OK passer. I’m lower on him than most.
4. Franz Wagner | Michigan | Soph. |19-years-old | 6-8
12.5 pts (47.7 FG%, 34.3 3P%, 83.5 FT%), 6.5 rebs, 3 asts, 1.3 stls, 1 blk in 31.7 mins
NBA Comparison: Robert Covington
Strengths: Strong feel for the game, defense, playmaking upside
Weaknesses: Not an incredible athlete or shooter
The skinny: The first thing you notice about Wagner is his feel for the game. He generally knows where to be and plays an unselfish brand of basketball. Then, it’s his defense. He’s a high IQ individual and team defender with great instincts. If Wagner finds his shot at the next level he’s starter material for sure. He has the playmaking upside and two-way steadiness to fill that role.
5. Moses Moody | Arkansas | Fresh. | 19-years-old | 6-6, 7-1 wingspan
NBA Comparison: Mikal Bridges
16.8 pts (42.7 FG%, 35.8 3P%, 81.2 FT%), 5.8 rebs, 1.6 asts, 1 stl in 33.8 mins
Strengths: Strong 3-point shooter, stout, reliable perimeter defender
Weaknesses: Below-the-rim player, little shake to his game
The skinny: Moody looks like your prototypical 3-and-D wing, He’s just 19-years-old. He should be able to shoot it and defend some top perimeter options in the NBA as soon as he slips on a team’s jersey for the first time. Moody has some polish to his game too despite his age, and although there’s some knocks against him because he’s not a premier athlete, I like how he knows how to play at his own pace.
6. Trey Murphy | Virginia | Junior | 21-years-old | 6-9, 7-0 wingspan
NBA Comparison: Cam Johnson
11.3 pts (50.3 FG%, 43.4 3P%, 92.7 FT%), 3.4 rebs, 1.2 asts, 0.8 stls in 29.6 mins
Strengths: Elite, elite shooting, versatile, long, rangy defender
Weaknesses: Needs to add strength and a handle
The skinny: I’m in awe of Trey Murphy’s jumper. Seriously. It’s a thing of beauty. He’s going to be a lights out shooter in the NBA and last year at Virginia shot 43% from distance and 38-41 from the free-throw line. Murphy’s also long and can defend. He’s only Cam Johnson on offense. On defense, he’s way more versatile and skilled. I don’t know if he has an All-Star ceiling or if he’ll be anymore than a catch-and-shoot sniper and cutter, but Murphy will be a quality role player for a decade-plus.
7. Corey Kispert | Gonzaga | Senior | 22-years-old | 6-7, 6-7 wingspan
NBA Comparison: Doug McDermott
18.6 pts (52.9 FG%, 44 3P%, 87.8 FT%), 5 rebs, 1.8 asts, 0.9 stls in 31.8 mins
Strengths: Elite 3-point shooting, high IQ player
Weaknesses: Lacks athleticism, perimeter defense is a concern
The skinny: Kispert can flat out shoot it both on the catch and on the move. He’s a smart, high IQ player who could be able to fill a Joe Harris or Doug McDermott-type role. There are obviously questions about his defense and if he’ll be able to do anything other than shoot. Those are real. Kispert will be best long-term on a good team where he can play to his strengths. Translation: I’ll be concerned if he winds up in say…Sacramento.
8. Keon Johnson | Tennessee | Fresh. | 19-years-old, 6-5, 6-7 wingspan
11.3 pts (44.9 FG%, 27.1 3P%, 70.3 FT%), 3.5 rebs, 2.5 asts, 1.1 stls in 25.5 mins
NBA Comparison: RJ Hampton
Strengths: Explosive athlete, should have defensive upside with his makeup
Weaknesses: Poor shooter, decision-making needs to improve, very unpolished
The skinny: Keon Johnson is one of the best athletes in the draft. He broke the vertical jump record at the NBA combine and can absolutely sky. What else can he do? Well… He can cut and finish around the rim because of his athleticism. He should be a quality defender because of his motor, frame and measurables. Johnson’s shot is shaky and he could be a bit of a project.
9. Jalen Johnson | Duke | Freshman | 19-years-old | 6-8, 7-0 wingspan
11.2 pts (52.3 FG%, 44.4 3P%, 63.2 FT%), 6.1 rebs, 2.2 asts, 1.2 stls, 1.2 blks in 21.4 mins
NBA Comparison: Aaron Gordon
Strengths: Natural playmaker, speed, athleticism
Weaknesses: Inconsistent shooter and defender, character questions
The skinny: It’s easy to get excited about Jalen Johnson. He’s an athletic 6-9 swingman with a great frame and feel for the game, awesome body control around the rim and in transition, and is just someone who looks like a player. But there are questions. He left his last two teams — IMG Academy and Duke — in the middle of the season, which raises eyebrows. Johnson’s jumper leaves a lot to be desired too. He’s probably an all-or-nothing pick. If Johnson hits, he’ll really hit. If doesn’t, you won’t hear from him much.
10. Zaire Williams | Stanford | Fresh. | 19-years-old | 6-9, 6-10 wingspan
10.7 pts (37.4 FG%, 29.1 3P%, 79.6 FT%), 4.6 rebs, 2.2 asts, 0.9 stls in 27.9 mins
NBA Comparison: Brandon Ingram
Strengths: Fluid athlete and ball handler, go-to scorer potential
Weaknesses: Strength, doesn’t seek out contact, shooting questions
The skinny: Speaking of boom or bust picks, I’d slot Zaire Williams into a similar category as Johnson. He showed little at Stanford other than his ideal NBA wing frame and athleticism. Williams looks like he’ll be a good shooter at the next level despite his poor numbers in college. You can talk yourself into him being a go-to perimeter option because the natural talent is just there. But there’s risk that comes with him too.
11. JT Thor | Auburn | Fresh. | 18-years-old | 6-10, 7-3 wingspan
9.4 pts (44 FG%, 29.7 3P%, 74.1 FT%), 5 rebs, 0.9 asts, 1.4 blks in 23 mins
Strengths: Explosive athlete, off-ball defense, rim protection
Weaknesses: Inconsistent shooter, turnover prone
NBA Comparison: Jonathan Isaac
The skinny: Thor reminds me of Bol Bol — albeit a couple inches shorter — in a lot of ways. Except he’s quicker and has a higher motor. Thor plays on the perimeter, his jumper looks promising, and he’s a great weak-side defender. He’s long and athletic too. I’m a fan, but Thor will need time to develop. Take Thor in the second round and let him cook in the G League for a season.
12. Herb Jones | Alabama | Senior | 22-years-old | 6-7, 7-0 wingspan
11.2 pts (44.6 FG%, 35.1 3P%, 71.3 FT%), 6.6 rebs, 3.3 asts, 1.7 stls, 1.1 blks in 27.3 mins
Strengths: Elite defensive potential, smart off-ball player
Weaknesses: Shooting, limited upside at 22-years-old
NBA Comparison: Andre Roberson
The skinny: Jones is my kind of player. He loves to defend, has a huge wingspan, and is a high IQ team player who knows his own strengths and weaknesses. He doesn’t have the upside of most typical first round pick but could be a quality role player. Jones is also pretty athletic and bouncy and has the body to defend big-time offensive wings.
13. Isaiah Todd | G League | 19-years-old | 6-9, 7-1 wingspan
12.3 pts (43.7 FG%, 36.2 3P%, 82.4 FT%), 4.9 rebs, 0.8 asts, 0.7 blks in 24.4 mins
Strengths: Perimeter shooting, athleticism
Weaknesses: Very raw, shot selection, roams on the 3-point line
NBA Comparison: Michael Beasley
The skinny: Todd is a project who’s at least a season or two away from becoming a reliable player. But the good news is he’s young at just from the tape has the ability to develop into a skilled pick-and-pop big. The former 15th ranked recruit is also athletic for his size and you can see the path forward. He played in the G League this last season, and that figures to be where he’ll stick for next year too.
Bigs
1. Evan Mobley | USC | Fresh. | 20-years-old | 7-0, 7-4 wingspan
16.4 pts (57.8 FG%, 30 3P%, 69.4 FT%), 8.7 rebs, 2.4 asts, 2.9 blks in 33.9 mins
Strengths: Shot-blocking, defense, modern NBA big
Weaknesses: Thin frame, shooting
NBA Comparison: Chris Bosh
The skinny: If you’re selecting a 7-footer at the top of the draft, that player MUST be able to defend on the perimeter. That’s a requirement in today’s NBA for selecting a big man as early as Mobley will hear his name called Thursday. The good news is Mobley should be able to. With his defense and two-way potential, Mobley has future All-Star written all over him. He’s my second-ranked player in the draft.
2. Alperen Sengun | Beşiktaş | 19-years-old | 6-10, 7-0 wingspan
19.2 pts (4.6 FG%, 19 3P%, 81.2 FT%), 9.4 rebs, 2.5 asts, 1.7 blks in 28.3 mins
Strengths: Post-scoring, feel for the game, rebounding
Weaknesses: Non-shooter, defense
NBA Comparison: Enes Kanter
The skinny: Sengun should be able to score in the NBA after putting up historic numbers in Turkey as a 19-year-old. He has elite footwork, great touch and an elite feel for his defender on the block. But his defense is concerning. There are real questions there and he also will enter the NBA without much of a jumpshot.
3. Usman Garuba | Real Madrid | 19-years-old | 6-8, 7-2 wingspan
5.6 pts (46.1 FG%, 33.8 3P%, 67.6 FT%), 5.3 rebs, 1.1 asts, 0.8 blks in 18.7 mins
Strengths: Versatile, switchable defender, hustler, passing
Weaknesses: A bit undersized, poor shooter
NBA Comparison: Draymond Green
The skinny: Comparing any prospect to Draymond Green is a death wish, but there are some similarities there. Garuba is arguably the best defensive prospect in the draft and at his age the prospects of the type of defender he’ll be able to develop into are scary. He’s shown a passing gene too and the ability to read the defense off the short role. His shot needs work and exactly what role he’ll play on offense is a bit up in the air. I like the potential though.
4. Kai Jones | Texas | Soph. | 20-years-old | 6-11, 7-2 wingspan
8.8 pts (58 FG%, 38.2 3P%, 68.9 FT%), 4.8 rebs, 0.8 stls, 0.9 blks in 22.8 mins
Strengths: Big-time athlete, shooting potential
Weaknesses: Lacks a post game, strength
NBA Comparison: JaVale McGee
The skinny: Jones will enter the NBA as one of the best athletes at his position — and maybe the best. He can run jump, dunk and do everything at the rim that a modern-day lob-catching big man needs to. It also looks like he’ll be a good shooter long-term and his athleticism and foot-speed means that he could defend out on the perimeter. The downside the Jones is that he needs time to develop. He only started playing organized basketball at 15-years-old.
5. Isaiah Jackson | Kentucky | Fresh. 19-years-old | 6-10, 7-4 wingspan
8.4 pts (54 FG%, 0 3P%, 70 FT%), 6.6 rebs, 0.9 stls, 2.6 blks in 20.8 mins
Strengths: Athleticism, rim protection
Weaknesses: Strength, scoring, playmaking
NBA Comparison: Nerlens Noel
The skinny: Like Jones, Jackson is a big-time athlete and leaper. He can run the floor like a deer, catch lobs, and block shots at the rim especially when he comes over from the weakside. He can block jump shots too. Imagine Jackson in the Clint Capela, Mitchell Robinson rim-running center mold.
6. Day’Ron Sharpe | North Carolina | Fresh. | 19-years-old | 6-11, 7-1 wingspan
9.5 pts (51.9 FG%, 0 3P%, 50.5 FT%), 7.6 rebs, 1.4 asts, 0.9 blks in 19.2 mins
Strengths: Strong screener, nose for the ball, hustler
Weaknesses: No jumpshot, not versatile
NBA Comparison: Richaun Holmes
The skinny: Sharpe has a great motor and that’s a big part of what’s going to get him drafted Thursday. The guy never stops hustling. He’s also a smart player, knows where to be on the defensive end of the floor and does his job. He’s not the above-the-rim center that Kai Jones and Isaiah Jackson are. Sharpe is more of a bruiser but has quicker feet than you’d expect. There are questions about his touch inside and what his offensive game will look like at the NBA level.