The Skins and Jets save Thanksgiving, analyzing our Week 12 picks

 

Time to look back on another week of picks to analyze our numbers and see how we did. The NFL’s week 12 gave us some satisfactions as our Thanksgiving pick worked out nicely and we would have had a perfect Sunday if not for being on the wrong side of a half point with the Miami Dolphins pick. After a 2-and-1 record in hand Sunday night and a guarantee to avoid a losing week we felt good about things, but Monday night didn’t go our way taking us to 2-and-2. That puts us at 23-22-2 overall on the year with our picks.

For our numbers the big takeaway was that our YPP metric went 3-1 with differentials over 5 points – the Indianapolis Colts were also favored over that differential but considering their quarterback injury we don’t count that game. Overall YPP was 3-4 when we widen the sample to differentials over 3 points, so it was certainly a good week to take the 5 and over games.

On the EW side, the big differentials did not work  out (3 or more) going 0-2 and 3-5 with differentials over 2. Our EW pick of the week was one of those two games with a differential over 3 points.

It was another exciting week of NFL action as the month of November really saw better play and more exciting games. As the playoff race has become more fierce and the nail biters more constant, it’s certainly a great time to be invested in all these games.

Here’s what happened in Week 12 with our picks.

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The Skins keep it close enough on Thanksgiving

As this game started off and the Dallas Cowboys put together a picture perfect drive in the games opening series this did not look good.

The Cowboys opened holes with ease in the run game as Ezekiel Elliott punished tacklers and Dak Prescott made essential plays when needed. But Washington’s defense played better after that though they never were able to make the crucial stop when they needed it towards the end, it was still enough for us to cover the 7 point spread.

What really saved this pick was the Redskins aerial attack as Kirk Cousins once again was on fire. Cousins torched the Cowboys secondary for 449 yards and an impressive 77-percent completion on 53 attempts (!).

This game gave the entertainment that it promised (at least from a betting perspective) going in as the fourth quarter was back-and-forth with the offenses exchanging scores.

Washington’s final drive was crucial as Cousins found Jordan Reed for the 9-yard score to make it 31-26 with 1:53 remaining. From a betters perspective, this ended perfectly as Dallas ran out the clock after getting a crucial first down.

The Jets pull off the big cover

With Ryan Fitzpatrick’s return, YPP said the New York Jets at home, deserved to only be 1 point underdogs for a full 7 point differential from the actual spread. Once we adjusted for Tom Brady’s return and the increase in offensive performance the New England Patriots were still only 2.5 point favorites per our YPP suggested spread so we threw caution to the wind and went against the Pats.

The metrics proved us correct as New York kept this close throughout even taking the lead early in the fourth quarter. The Pats didn’t look like themselves offensively with the Jets playing some fine ‘D’ while Fitzpatrick kept the attack churning just enough. If not for two costly fumbles, New York might have made this even more of a contest but ultimately New England prevailed by 5 points, giving us the cover.

YPP’s statistics bared out in this one as the Patriots looked beatable offensively and Brady was forced to drop back 50 times, completing 30 for lots of short passes (5.7 average yards per completion) while the Jets looked like a better team than their now 3-8 record would suggest.

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The half point and Miami cost us big

Early in the fourth quarter as the Miami Dolphins extended their lead to 31-14 with 11:31 left in the game this seemed like an easy win for us. After all, the Fins attack had finally broken through to take a 15-point lead and the San Francisco 49ers offense seemed far from able to shorten the gap.

With Miami having to cover 7.5 this seemed all over with. In a betting nightmare scenario at the end, the Dolphins won by 7 points keeping us out of the money by a mere half point.

What happened after the Dolphins took the 15 point lead is hard to explain as Colin Kaepernick came to life, driving his team down three separate times and almost pulling off the comeback win.

What kills here was Chip Kelly getting into field goal position with 2:15 and down 21-31 to take the kick instead of going for it on 4th-and-10 from the Dolphins 18. The 49ers covered that way and Miami was unable to respond as they stalled on 3rd-and-9 with Jay Ajayi getting stopped a yard short on an 8-yard run.

Kaepernick would be stopped just two yards short of the goal line as time ran out stopping this from going to OT but all was long lost by then. The Dolphins just took the lead too early and soft prevent defense killed us as the 49ers were able to quickly close the gap.

The Fins have been nothing but good to us this year but their inexperience showed in this game as they should have never allowed this game to be so close.

EW Pick of the week streak ends

Betting against the Green Bay Packers had worked out for us the previous two weeks with Vegas slowly rising the spread higher and higher against Green Bay.

EW keeps on favoring the Philadelphia Eagles though they’ve certainly trended downward after their impressive start. But at home and against a struggling Pack attack we liked the Eagles defense in this matchup.

In retrospect it was a horrible pick and as the old expression goes “when you play with fire you’re going to get burned” we eventually got burned. The Packers here aren’t the fire in this analogy as they’ve been a middling team, the fire we played with that burned us was Aaron Rodgers, who all night made throws that just shouldn’t be made.

He put the Eagles on their back heels from the get go and kept throwing into tight windows to keep this out of reach. He threw deep and with ultra quick decision making and release. The Philadelphia secondary was often in great position but seemingly every time Rodgers found ways to thread the needle while his receivers made bit time grabs. Rookie Carson Wentz and the rest of the Eagles attack just couldn’t keep up with that type of performance.

Philly was an 8-point favorite per our EW suggested spread but with Rodgers and the Green Bay’s passing offense in that type of form, there was just not stopping them. As the game ended on a few miraculous bobbled receptions by the visitors you knew there was no shot, with Monday night ruining our winning week.

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An early Week 13 numbers preview

As is our weekly tradition to preview the upcoming NFL week, here’s our EW metric using the pre-season Vegas over/under win totals suggested spreads.

Teams	Current Spread	Expected Wins 2016 prices	Advantage	Home Field	Suggested Spread	Difference
DAL	-3.5	8.5
@MIN		9.5	2	3	-5	8.5
KC		9.5	4		-0.5	4
@ATL	-3.5	7.5		3.5
DET		7				2
@NO	-5.5	7		3.5	-3.5
LAR		7.5				4
@NE	-13.5	10.5	6	3.5	-9.5
DEN	-5	9	3		Even
@JAX		7.5		3	Even	5
HOU		8.5
@GB	-4.5	10.5	4	3.5	-7.5	3
PHI	-2.5	7.5
@CIN		9.5	4	3	-7	9.5
MIA		7.5
@BAL	-3.5	8.5	2	3	-5	1.5
SF		5.5
@CHI	-2.5	7.5	4	3	-7	4.5
BUF		8
@OAK	-3	8.5	1	3	-4	1
NYG		8.5				1.5
@PIT	-6	10.5	4	3.5	-7.5
WSH		7.5				5.5
@AZ	-2.5	10	5	3	-8
TB		7.5	1			2.5
@SD	-4.5	7		3	-2
CAR		10.5				3
@SEA	-6.5	10.5		3.5	-3.5
IND	-1	9.5	4		-1	0
@NYJ		7.5		3