The Rockies won't be rebuilding, here's why

 

The Colorado Rockies had an absolutely miserable campaign in 2019, there’s no way around it.

As such it is natural, expected even, that national audiences – including 29 GMs in MLB – would be wondering aloud whether or not the club might have some interest in rebuilding.

Despite the fact that Jeff Bridich made it crystal clear in contrasting his own star player after the season, insisting the Rockies were not rebuilding and had no plans to, rumors are running rampant about whether or not they could, would, or should be aggressive in seeking offers for players like Trevor Story, Jon Gray, and Scott Oberg.

Forgetting for a moment that the wisest place to begin a rebuild (that again, is not in the works) would be by entertaining trades of players like Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon, let’s skip past what the organization has said and done over the last few years and take a look at why it simply does not make sense for Colorado to be moving in this direction.

It is easy to understand why anyone might roll their eyes at the notion that a 71-win team is trying to add pieces to compete rather than sell them off for a better future. But the specifics of their situation, the nature of their window, and the structure of their payroll, suggests this is the only direction it makes sense for the club to go right now.

It’s more likely that the Rockies are working on contract extensions for Story, Gray, and Oberg than they are looking to unload them for other talented players who would only have a hope and a wish that they could somehow make up for these players’ production.

It makes sense that an outside audience would look at these three players and reach the conclusion that they might look good in another uniform without realizing what they mean to the franchise they are already with.

Gray, based on the numbers, looks like a decent number two or three in someone else’s rotation, often described as a solid-but-not-great power arm with upside.

For Colorado, he is on the verge of being the best pitcher they’ve ever had and has done so before reaching his 27th birthday or unlocking his full potential. He may just be the answer to the question “how do you pitch at Coors Field?” regularly putting up better numbers at home than out on the road.

That fact may not matter at all to other clubs but it is absolutely vital to the Rockies which makes him close to impossible to deal for fair value.

He stands as the only modern example of pitching consistently well in  Colorado, flirting with domination, getting chewed up and spit out by the toughest pitching environment in baseball and emerging from the other side as an even better competitor.

The Rockies would clone Jon Gray five times long before they would trade him for a prospect whose best hope would be that he becomes only the second-ever version of…the guy he was traded for.

A similar principle applies to Oberg.

These are players that the Rockies are trying not only to build their rotation and bullpen around respectively, but who also stand as shining examples of how to handle the Coors Effect and how to navigate the rapids of unique early-career struggles related to it.

They are rare commodities in the history of the organization.

Story, on the other hand, is just a true five-tool star-level player in this game that no team would consider trading unless they were worried they might lose him for nothing.

While that eventuality may come to haunt the Rockies, they aren’t there yet with Story who is under control through 2021. They can always explore the possibility of a blockbuster move involving him if they can’t right the ship before then. It could even make sense as soon as next year’s trade deadline, should Colorado get off to a bad start, but there’s no need to put that cart before the horse.

The point is, there is almost no way to trade any of these players and have the franchise take anything less than a big step backward in the immediacy. All transactions are on the table but only insofar as they can help Colorado compete now and not years down the road.

They’ve earned the right to see which is more sustainable: the nearly 400 games they played from 2017 into 2019 that saw them post the fourth best record in the National League or the 68 games that followed and saw them post one of the worst records in baseball.

So, with recent events being the most fresh in everyone’s minds, of course teams are calling about the Rockies most enticing pieces and of course Colorado is listening.

But they are by no means stuck.

The good news here for Rockies fans is that, despite their disappointing season, they’ve lost almost nothing of value to free agency and aren’t at risk of losing anything of value anytime soon. They’ve got time.

And they hold the leverage.

It may ultimately end up being the case that the team is, indeed, too fundamentally flawed to bounce back in 2020 with fringe moves and rebounds from key players. If that comes to pass, though, Colorado will still be in a position of power when it comes to dealing any of the players that are currently being discussed.

Also, at a time when several clubs have made it clear that they have no intention of truly contending, isn’t this what baseball wants and needs?

The Rockies are trying to win as many baseball games as they can behind a team that is largely homegrown and mostly well compensated. They are looking for creative ways to keep the band together while clubs like Cleveland are frantically searching for new homes for fan favorites.

Nothing is guaranteed in this game. The Phillies acquired four All-Stars from the previous season then missed the playoffs. Wheeling and dealing and getting objectively good baseball players isn’t always a promise for a better future. And a losing season isn’t always a sign that it is time to sell off your best players.

Colorado is likely to be more active this off season than in the last several years but if you are a fan (or GM) of another team, I wouldn’t get your hopes up about adding one of these guys for cheap.

You may see them as a nice complimentary piece that could put you over the top, but here they are fundamental and nearly irreplaceable parts of a core that gave the franchise their best back-to-back seasons ever.

They deserve one more chance to prove what they can accomplish together before anyone truly considers tearing them apart.