The Rockies' path to the NL West title begins with three players

DENVER – It can be easy to forget sometimes, especially these days, that Major League Baseball isn’t a video game. Or a fantasy sport.

It’s the real deal.

And in a new season of projections and speculations and declarations that some teams have definitively improved while others have assuredly gotten worse, the truth of where wins come from over the course of a 162 game season remains elusive.

We are all observing patterns, picking the ones we like the best – the most intricate equations, the most pristine eye, the most innovative roster-construction theories – but there is one thing that, despite constant debate among ever-expanding schools of thought, seems to be universally agreed upon; if you want to win baseball games, you have to pitch good.

It’s the time of year where we should rightfully be wondering how the Colorado Rockies can replace the value lost by DJ LeMahieu, Adam Ottavino, Carlos Gonzalez, and Gerardo Parra.

It’s the time of year when it makes all the sense in the word to ask if the young position players can take the next step forward and make their jersey the next hot item in LoDo or if Daniel Murphy is a legitimate game-changer for the offense.

But let’s not all lose sight of the forest through these trees.

If the Rockies are going to make the postseason in 2019, they will need to get there on the same strength that saw them in the dance in the last two seasons. Pitching.

We broke down how deep the Rockies run in the starting pitching department earlier this offseason, so let’s hear what manager Bud Black – who knows a thing or two about this art – has to say.

“Last year we felt really good about our rotation based on what we saw in ’17,” he began.

“This year we feel the same, with German [Marquez] and Kyle [Freeland] and Jon [Gray] and Chad [Bettis] and Tyler [Anderson] and Antonio [Senztela]. Jeff Hoffman, I think, hopefully, bounces back. And Peter Lambert is a year older, touched Triple-A. He’s looking to make an impact too.”

Colorado’s 13 doesn’t stop there, the manager who is generally reluctant to speak too much about minor league players says.

“There’s some guys in Double-A that are making some noise. And with some of these younger guys emerging, they’re getting closer, that helps. That helps the entire group. But as far as like guys pushing to being in the rotation, our guys are so competitive that they don’t need to be pushed. There’s a natural great competition amongst our guys to pitch well and to go out there and perform.”

This competition has led to back-to-back seasons of the best production any Colorado rotation has ever seen. Which begs the question of whether or not they can keep up such a pace.

To be fair, some of those accomplishments come from a relatively low bar set throughout Rockies’ pitching history, which has famously been a quagmire. There is still plenty of room for improvement.

But there is even an argument to be made that they’ve gotten lucky, especially when it comes to their health.

“Knock on wood, we’ve been fortunate about the health of these fellows,” said Black. “There’s only a couple rotations that have made their starts like our guys have. And we haven’t really had to go deep into the ninth, 10th, 11th, 12th starter. And our guys have gone to the post, which is what you need. It’s been a big part of our success.”

While that may be the case, it doesn’t change the underlying fact that the Rockies have gotten what they have the last couple of season from Freeland, Marquez, Gray and the rest not because of some unlikely sequencing but because they are some of the most talented pitchers that the organization has ever seen.

And they grew up in it.  (Marquez was adopted into it a little later, but still.)

This is why, for the first time in history, the Rockies are actually getting some national attention not for the number of runs scored at their home ballpark, but for the number of runs they prevent.

Freeland’s fourth-place finish in 2018 Cy Young voting speaks to that.

“Isn’t that great?” Black says.

“I’m so proud of our guys. I mean you can’t say that enough. Keep talking about it. That just goes to show the talent they have and how they pitched last year. They were good. They were really good. And through thick and thin.”

You mean the disadvantage of pitching at Coors Field that is often overlooked in the same breath as someone discounting Nolan Arenado’s MVP candidacy because of his splits?

“You’ve heard me say we don’t talk about it,” Black reiterated for easily the hundredth time. “It’s a baseball field. And there’s a game being played by two teams. But is pitching in altitude a real thing? Absolutely it’s real. But I’ve said this before that when the game’s over, somebody’s going to win. So we just gotta outplay the other team. Gotta outpitch them and outhit them and out defend them.”

It can be easy to forget that the Rockies have done just that on their way to consecutive postseason appearances, relying on pitchers with no more than two seasons of MLB experience.

That leaves the path for betterment an obvious, if not easy, one.

“I’m a big believer in passing the test of time,” Black says. “Kyle’s two years, he’s shown that consistency. I know the second half of ’17 was maybe a little variable. But from the first part of May to the end of the season he was as consistent as any pitcher in the big leagues. Now, the challenge for Kyle is to continue that performance, and I’m very confident that he can do it. I’m confident that he believes he can do it.”

And he’s not alone.

“German and a lot of young pitchers,” Black added. “There’s still growth there. We saw the changeup make great strides. I think there’s still a little bit of growth there with the changeup usage and the consistency of the breaking ball, again, fastball command.”

It’s easy to understand how players like Gray, Anderson, or Senzatela could have better seasons if they can just be a bit more consistent. And it would make sense why some would expect regression from the dynamic duo at the top of the rotation.

In fact, Gray himself might be the biggest key to the Rockies upcoming season because if he gets himself back to his best, Colorado has a three-headed monster in their rotation that can’t be rivaled by anyone in the National League.

But it may well be the case that even when it comes to Freeland and Marquez, we ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

Don’t rule out the possibility that the Rockies get better in 2019 and it has little or nothing to do with acquisitions, youth development, maneuvering, clever managing, or any other attempt to address (or not) the problems with the roster.

It is entirely possible that the Colorado club wins more games in 2019 on the basis that their already fantastic pitching staff – still the most important element of any baseball team – becomes one of the most feared in all of baseball.

They’ve broken the franchise records. It’s time to set their sights on the other ones.