The Nuggets' playoff rotation seems decided; Who's in and who's out?

The version of Reggie Jackson that the Nuggets hoped they were getting when Denver signed the veteran guard off the buyout market finally emerged last night in Phoenix.

Jackson played his best game as a Nugget Thursday against the Suns, tallying 20 points (7-15 FG’s, 2-5 3FG’s), 6 assists and 2 steals in 30 minutes. He played composed, limited his mistakes, and hit a number of challenging, contested, and well-guarded jumpers — the types of shots that Jackson sometimes just sinks.

Was this the official coming out party for “Playoff” Reggie Jackson, who has been known to level up his game in the postseason? Is “Mr. June” officially here? Will he even play in the playoffs?

Here’s my take on where the Nuggets’ rotation stands and what questions still remain about who Michael Malone will play in the playoffs.

Rotation Locks

• Nikola Jokic
• Jamal Murray
• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
• Michael Porter Jr.
• Aaron Gordon

The Nuggets’ starting lineup played 17.2 minutes together on average during the regular season. That was the most that any five-man lineup in the league played together this year. Expect that number to creep up closer to 20 minutes per game in the playoffs as the Nuggets cut down their overall bench minutes.

These are the five-man lineups that average the most minutes this season:

Jokic (33.8 minutes per game this season), Murray (32.9) and Caldwell-Pope (31.4) will all see their minutes increase. Gordon (30.3), who could log minutes at backup center, will probably play a minimum of the 32 minutes per game he played in last year’s playoffs. Porter (29.1), who we saw stagger with the bench late this season when Denver went to a small ball look with its second unit, will see his minutes jump too. I hope we see what Porter can do in around 33-35 minutes per game.

Rotation Locks off the Bench

• Bruce Brown
• Christian Braun
• Jeff Green

When the Nuggets have been at full strength over the last month or so, Brown and Braun have been the Nuggets’ first two players off the bench. Green checks in shortly after. I expect that to remain the same in the playoffs.

Braun is someone who’s minutes should be upped significantly in the playoffs. He needs to definitely be playing 20 minutes per game in the postseason — and I think you can make the argument that it should be even higher. If the Nuggets match up against the Suns in the 2nd round, Braun might need to play around 30 minutes per game. I don’t think that’s a crazy notion. His defense is that good — it was phenomenal again last night against the full-strength Suns — and I think he’s the Nuggets’ best individual defender right now.

Nuggets may have to play Christian Braun 30+ minutes/game in the playoffs, especially if they get the Suns in the 2nd round. Don't think that would be crazy. He was phenomenal again defensively last night.

He guards Chris Paul, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker in the same possession. pic.twitter.com/bal75FRhQI

— Harrison Wind (@HarrisonWind) April 7, 2023

Green has put a good amount of distance between himself and Vlatko Cancar for the “first forward off the bench” spot in Michael Malone’s rotation. It felt like Cancar moved ahead of Green in the pecking order back in December/January when the Nuggets’ bench played as well as it had all season with Cancar at backup power forward — this was when Green was sidelined for around one month due to a fractured hand. But when Cancar missed four games due to a wrist sprain in early March, his spot in the rotation went back to Green. It’s stayed with the veteran ever since and Green has had some strong games lately to lock in his playoff spot.

Near-Rotation Locks off the Bench

• Zeke Nnaji

Nnaji should begin most playoff games in the Nuggets’ rotation, and by now it’s obvious that he’s the only player that Malone really trusts at backup center in high-leverage situations. But if his first stint goes awry or Denver slims down its second-half rotation, I think Nnaji’s minutes will be the first that get cut. When the Nuggets’ bench has looked good this season, Nnaji’s has played a major role. His switchability on defense and athleticism is important to that group.

Next up

• Peyton Watson
• Reggie Jackson
• DeAndre Jordan

Watson and Jackson should start the playoff out of the regular rotation. Watson could be used situationally though. What he’s flashed over the last few games has felt real and potentially useful. He was excellent defensively against Kevin Durant and the Suns on Thursday. His length was a real factor.

Jackson’s recent performance against the Suns likely doesn’t put him back into the firm rotation, but we do know Malone trusts him. I don’t think he’d be afraid to try Jackson if the Nuggets’ second unit is struggling. I only put Jordan on here because you can envision a scenario where Denver’s bench struggles to rebound. If that was to play out and if the Nuggets are desperate, it’s Jordan who Denver would go to.

On the outside looking in

• Vlatko Cancar
• Ish Smith
• Thomas Bryant

Cancar is the one player in this group who could actually see some real playoff minutes — and I think he should. Cancar is legitimately good, and has played well whenever he’s gotten a real shot this season. I think he’d help the bench, but I don’t see him being in the normal rotation.

Smith and Bryant shouldn’t factor into the postseason.