The Nuggets' key to Game 5? Getting Draymond Green in foul trouble

SAN FRANCISCO — One key to the Nuggets’ 7-0 run over the last 2:05 of the fourth quarter of Game 4 vs. the Warriors was the absence of the Warriors’ heart and soul. Draymond Green, whose offense, defense, and playmaking dominated the first two games of the Nuggets and Warriors first-round series watched the end of regulation from the bench after fouling out with just over two minutes remaining in the game.

Green’s sixth foul changed the course of Saturday’s Nuggets’ win. Denver and Golden State both know that. Green controls the Warrior’s pace and direction on offense. On defense, he’s the concrete and foundation that holds what was the second-ranked defense this season together.

“We outscored them 7-0 to close the game,” Michael Malone said after the Nuggets’ Tuesday practice in Denver. “I thought the offensive execution, the shot-making, not rushing, not panicking, also Draymond was out of the game, that definitely helped.”

Finding a way to coax Green into foul trouble will be a key in tonight’s Game 5, and much of that responsibility will fall on Nikola Jokic. Green avoided foul trouble in Games 1 and 2 — both blowout Warriors wins — but committed five fouls in Game 3 and six in Game 4. Of those 11 combined fouls in Games 3 and 4, seven were drawn when Green was guarding Jokic.

Here are all 11 of Green’s fouls in Games 3 and 4:

Malone was asked at practice Tuesday if he feels there are places on the floor or actions that the Nuggets can run with Jokic that are more likely to result in a foul on Green. Denver’s coach didn’t reveal what the Nuggets’ staff had definitely discussed behind closed doors over the last few days, but Malone admitted he thinks there are.

“Yes. We won’t go into all the details,” he said. “Draymond’s a hell of a defender, anywhere on the court. When he’s not guarding Nikola, he’s guarding Nikola. And when he is guarding Nikola, he’s very effective and he has a pretty wide leash in terms of how he guards Nikola. That’s what happens when you’re a defensive player of the year. We understand that. There definitely are actions and areas of the floor where we feel Nikola has a better chance of scoring playmaking and being effective. And we look to exploit those.”

Of the 11 fouls Green committed across Games 3 and 4, these are the five that caught my eye (pun intended). If Jokic gets Green on the move, whether it’s popping to the 3-point line or coming around a screen/cutting and moving towards the basket near the paint, Green can be compromised. I wouldn’t be surprised if Denver tried to get Jokic in even more of these types of actions tonight.

Of note: James Capers is the crew chief for Game 5. He hasn’t officiated a game yet this series, but Capers famously ejected Jokic in a 2019 loss to the Wizards. Capers also officiated the Nuggets’ 136-130 home loss to the Timberwolves on April 1 when Minnesota shot 36 free-throws (Denver shot 29 that night).

It’s no surprise that the Warriors are favored by 8.5 points as of Wednesday morning. They’ve already blown out the Nuggets twice at home in this series, Steph Curry is trending towards rejoining the Warriors’ starting lineup, and Golden State is simply a much better team than Denver on paper. However, Vegas can’t account for how the Jokic-led Nuggets adapt and overcome in playoff basketball. They gain confidence as the series progresses. Slowly but surely, Jokic figures out his opposition.

That’s what gradually took place throughout Game 3 and then in Denver’s Game 4 win. It could happen again tonight, or the Warriors could blow through a Nuggets team that just doesn’t have the horses. I could see both scenarios unfolding. But to get a win and extend this series, the Nuggets have to make Green uncomfortable. Foul trouble is one way Denver can make that happen.