The Nuggets have a plan to fix their late-game offensive woes

BOULDER — As the final second’s ticked off the clock on a chilly night in Minneapolis last January, the Nuggets, who trailed by two with roughly 14 seconds left, came across half court looking for the game-tying or perhaps game-winning bucket.

Who knows what a win that night in Minnesota against the Wolves and Karl-Anthony Towns would have done for Denver’s playoff hopes, with the Nuggets sitting at 18-24 to that point. But as the final sequence played, with Jameer Nelson circling the paint with his dribble seemingly looking for someone to pass to, the Nuggets failed to get off a good look and dropped another winnable game against an inferior team.

The Nuggets ended last season with a 40-42 record and finished one game out of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. In games decided by three points or less, the Nuggets were 5-10. In what NBA.com defines as the “clutch,”, where the margin is five points or less with less than five minutes remaining, Denver was 16-24.

Even though the Nuggets had the 21st-most efficient offense in the league last season in the clutch, per NBA.com, they shot a league-worst 36.7 percent in those situations and just 22.9 percent from three, which ranked 29th.

The Nuggets struggled to score and manufacture good shots at the end of games. It wasn’t what ultimately led to them missing out on the playoffs but it was a contributing factor that was evident time and again late in the fourth quarter when defenses locked in and locked up Denver’s offense – which otherwise was the best in the league post-Dec. 15.

Enter Paul Millsap, the Nuggets’ marquee free-agent acquisition this summer who won’t eliminate the Nuggets’ late-game snags, but will help. The four-time All-Star has taken and made game-winning shots before. He’s closed out games in the regular season, playoffs and will do the same for the Nuggets at times this year.

Millsap won’t be counted on to take every shot down the stretch for Denver, but he’ll be one of head coach Michael Malone’s first options. The 32-year old shot 41.3 percent in the clutch last season from the field and 3-16 (18.8 percent) for Atlanta — better than anyone on the Nuggets, who took a significant amount of field goals in those situations not named Nikola Jokic.

Those numbers won’t put Millsap on a pantheon with the game’s best clutch scorers today like C.J. McCollum, LeBron James, and DeMar DeRozan, but his percentages late in games put him on par with likes of the Carmelo Anthony, DeMarcus Cousins, and Anthony Davis.

“I think he is a go-to player,” Malone said of Millsap. “And the great thing about him being a go-to player is that he’s not just a guy who can score for you but he’s going to make the right play. He’s going to create double-teams at times and he’s so skilled if he is double-teamed he’ll make the right play and find the open man.”

Malone’s spot on. Millsap can make plays for himself and also has the basketball IQ to make plays for others when double-teams arrive.

Many of Millsap’s shots in the clutch last season came via actions that are similar to what the Nuggets ran on offense last year. Atlanta played a similar style to Denver in terms of their ball and player movement and it was a huge reason why Millsap was so high on Denver and the prospects of playing in the Nuggets’ system this summer when the free agent recruiting period opened on July 1.

Millsap will get plenty of late-game looks off of cuts and screens within the realms of Denver’s high-flying attack. But he’s also not afraid to ISO his man on the block or wing, and go hard to the rack with the game on the line. Late in games, Millsap also loves to work from the mid-post, sizing up his defender, backing him down or turning and facing to see and assessing the defense.

They’re not the most efficient shots, but late in games defenders lock in and last year Denver’s free-flowing offense didn’t have the same pizzaz in the last five minutes of games that it did in the first 43.

“That’s part of the reason why I’m here, why they brought me here,” Millsap said of his ability to close games. “But not just specifically to get a bucket, but to make the right play down the stretch, whether that’s finding the open guy or creating a shot for someone else and just the poise of trying to win games down the stretch.”

Denver will be better in the clutch with Millsap than they were last season because of his late-game prowess, but also because they improved as the season went on last year. The Nuggets’ clutch field goal percentage climbed steadily in March and April as Jokic kicked Denver’s offense into another gear. Denver went from shooting a league-worst 35.3 percent from the field in the clutch prior to the All-Star break to 42.6 percent in the second half of last season which slotted them 21st in the league.

“Obviously last year, coming off a season where we were 5-10 in games decided by three points or less, adding a player that you can go to later in games to score to get fouled or to created ad double team is always valuable,” Michael Malone said of his starting power forward. “And he’s that guy.”