The Nuggets' first-quarter struggles have started to cost them wins

Michael Malone’s reaction said it all. After a Joe Harris three at the 8:57 mark of the first quarter in the Nuggets’ 112-110 loss to the Nets Friday, his second three in less than five minutes to open the game, Denver’s coach quickly rose from his spot on the bench, walked a few paces to right right and signaled for Juancho Hernangomez to make his way to the scorer’s table to check into the game.

The Nuggets were already trailing 18-8 and in a familiar first-quarter hole. Earlier this week, Denver trailed Boston 10-2 after just three minutes and 43 seconds before eventually coming back from 18 down to win behind Jamal Murray’s 48 points. Against the Cavs on Nov. 1, the Nuggets fell behind by 12 points after one quarter but were able to rally to win. Poor starts finally caught up with Denver versus Brooklyn.

“We lost that game in the first quarter,” Malone lamented afterward.

The Nuggets have one of the league’s best point differentials in the league to date. Denver has outscored its opponent by 90 points this season, or 7.5 points per game, good for fifth-most in the NBA. The Nuggets have a plus-51 point differential in second quarters this season, a plus-31 differential in third quarters and a plus-15 differential in fourth quarters. But Denver has been outscored by a combined eight points in first quarters this year.

“It’s just low energy,” Torrey Craig said after the Nuggets fell to Brooklyn and were outscored 34-24 in the first. “We’re coming out not being ready to play.”

The Nuggets’ inability to score in first quarters this season sticks out like a sore thumb. As a team, Denver boasts the 11th-most efficient offense in the league and has a 109.8 Offensive Rating (points scored per 100 possessions). However, over the first 12 minutes of the game, Denver’s offense slips to 26th. The Nuggets are scoring 99.3 points per 100 possessions in the first quarter this year, ahead of just the Wizards, Knicks, Celtics and Suns, all bottom-10 offenses so far this season.

A deeper dive into the numbers shows why.

Denver’s starting five has struggled to score

The more games that Will Barton misses, the void he left in the Nuggets’ starting lineup becomes harder and harder to ignore. Barton was a key component to Denver’s first five. He’s a confident and willing ball handler who’s a smooth operator out of pick-and-rolls, pick-and-pops and dribble-hand-offs. His chemistry with Nikola Jokic in all those actions was rivaled only by Gary Harris, and he’s developed into a strong three-point shooter, converting on 37.0 percent of his threes in each of the last two seasons.

Without its starting small forward, Denver has struggled to generate offense at the beginning of games. Murray, Harris, Craig, Jokic and Paul Millsap played the first 5:14 against Brooklyn. The Nuggets shot 3-7 from the field and committed five turnovers in the 12 possessions over that span.

Denver’s starting lineup has posted a 96.3 Offensive Rating in 142 minutes this season, which is quite a bit lower than the pace that the bottom-three offenses in the league, the Suns (100.1 points per 100), the Hawks (102.1 points per 100) and the Magic (102.2) have scored at this season. In first quarters, the current starting lineup’s Offensive Rating dips to 85.5 points per 100 possessions.

In Barton’s absence, the Nuggets have rolled with Craig in their starting lineup. Malone likes Craig’s defensive resume and the fact that he’s logged high-leverage minutes for Denver over the last two seasons. Craig’s played well on the defensive end of the floor in spots this season, like when he limited Mike Conley to just four points on 2-9 shooting in the Nuggets’ 89-87 loss to the Grizzlies. But on the other end, he’s hasn’t given Denver much. Craig is shooting 18-47 this season, just 4-25 from three-point range, and those four threes are his only makes outside of 5 feet. Defenses are taking notice.

The Nets were content to let Craig beat them Saturday. Brooklyn used Joe Harris, who was matched up on Denver’s starting small forward for most of that nine minutes Craig logged at the beginning of the first and third quarters, as a rover defender who was quick to jump over and help out one of his teammates on the other side of the floor.

Here, Harris slides over the elbow to thwart a Murray drive, not the least bit worried about leaving Craig, who’s standing around 10 feet away wide open at the three-point line. Murray doesn’t look Craig’s way as the ball eventually finds Millsap, who launches a step-back jumper as Harris again leaves Craig and shades over to the strong side.

After halftime, Harris started to camp out near the basket and left Craig free to roam free around the three-point line. A clogged paint gave Jokic and the Nuggets trouble finding clean looks with the realms of their offense.

Two nights earlier in Memphis, it was more of the same.

When Malik Beasley plays alongside the Nuggets’ other four starters, Denver’s Offensive Rating rises to 131.3. When it’s Juancho Hernangomez, the Nuggets are scoring 115.9 points per 100 possessions.

Even though Beasley (32.4 percent shooting from three-point range) and Hernangomez (41.9 percent shooting from three-point range) don’t have a ton of three-point makes under their belt early on this season, they possess more gravity than Craig when spaced out along the three-point line. The ball moves quicker when Beasley and Hernangomez have played with Denver’s starting group too, leading to a greater number of assists and a more organic offense.

A progression to the mean should be coming

A quick fix like inserting Beasley or Hernangomez into the Nuggets’ starting lineup could ignite Denver’s starters on offense, but it might not matter if Denver’s top jump shooters don’t start making open shots.

On the season, the Nuggets are shooting 30.7 from three-point range, good for the second-worst percentage in the league. On wide open shots, which NBA.com categorizes as field goals where the closest defender is at least six feet away, Denver is shooting 32.6 percent from three. It’s the third-worst mark in the league, ahead of just the Oklahoma City and Detroit. Last season the Nuggets ranked seventh in three-point percentage (37.1) and third in wide-open three-point percentage (41.5).

It’s a disturbing and surprising trend to start the season considering how potent the Nuggets were from three-point range last season with much of the same rotation. Denver returned 15,486 of 19,880 minutes from last season’s 46-win team. Gone is Wilson Chandler, who hit 35.6 percent of his threes last season, but Emmanuel Mudiay, Devin Harris and Kenneth Faried weren’t sharpshooters by any means.

Gary Harris is still hovering well under 30 percent from three-point range after hitting around 40 percent of his threes last season and shooting 42 percent from distance in 2016-17. Jamal Murray has started the season in a three-point slump for the third consecutive year, currently converting on just 29.5 percent of his threes after shooting 37.8 percent from deep last year. Trey Lyles, who shot 38.1 percent from three on 3.0 attempts per game, is just 8-39 (20.5) percent from three so far this year.

Harris is the most surprising outlier of the bunch. Over the last two seasons, the 24-year-old has entrenched himself as one of the NBA’s top perimeter threats and shot 40.6 percent on catch-and-shoot threes last year. This season, he’s hitting just 30.0 percent of his shots of that variety and went 0-5 from three-point range against Brooklyn, missing open threes that would have been money for Harris last year. As a team, the Nuggets shot 5-18 from three versus the Nets and Denver’s starting lineup converted on just 2 of their 9 attempts from distance.

Harris’ three-point shooting will come around, as will Murray’s and likely Lyles’ too. When Denver’s starters eventually convert at a higher rate from three, more high-quality looks will begin to open up within its halfcourt offense. But if Craig’s doesn’t, and the Nuggets continue to roll with him in their starting lineup instead of trying either Beasley or Hernangomez, Denver’s offense could continue to struggle in first quarters.