The List: How the Denver Nuggets can generate more threes

“The List” is a brand new series that serves as a companion piece for the “Notebook” episodes of the Locked on Nuggets podcast and the DNVR Nuggets podcast. In this edition, I talk about the reasons the Denver Nuggets are struggling to generate three-point shots and highlight Will Barton’s defense in the clutch.

1. One of the concerns for the Denver Nuggets this season has been their low three-point attempt rate, especially from their key shooters like Jamal Murray. Just 31.8% of Denver’s shots come from the three-point line, the third lowest rate in the NBA. Just 29.1% of Murray’s shots come from behind the arc, 6% fewer than last season and 12% fewer than the season before.

It’s no secret that the three-point shot has become an increasingly important component of success in today’s league. Three is more valuable than two and the teams who generate the most good three-point attempts tend to have the most efficient offenses. The Nuggets rank 24th in offensive efficiency, a large reason why they have had seven of their first nine games come down to the wire.

One way that the Nuggets might be able to generate more three-point attempts while also creating more spacing is to push their ball screens as high up the floor as possible. The Portland Trail Blazers do this really well with Damian Lillard, hunting opportunities for that transition screen to sneak up to the logo and beyond.

Far too often with Denver, that initial screen takes place either at the level of the three-point line or one pace above.

Even when the defender gets caught on a screen or goes under, Murray still seems to pass up three-point opportunities in favor of attacking the basket or getting into the mid-range.

Only four players have taken more attempts from the mid-range, according to NBA.com. Murray is knocking down 41% of these shots so far this season, a decent percentage but still an inefficient form of offense from a leading scorer.

There is a ripple effect on the Nuggets’ offense from all of this. Fewer pull up three-point attempts means that rim protectors are able to sink into the paint a step or two more making it easier to cut off driving and cutting lanes toward the basket. As a result, the Nuggets are taking just 25.1% of their shots between 0-3 feet, per basketball-reference.com, the 6th lowest rate in the league.

2. One other way that the Nuggets can generate more offense going toward the basket is to create more space between Jokic and the guards who are running toward dribble handoffs (DHOs). The Timberwolves provided an excellent example of this on the very first possession of the game when Andrew Wiggins beat Gary Harris backdoor for the jam. Just watch how much space there is between Karl-Anthony Towns and Wiggins when Wiggins begins his back cut.

That extra spacing forces Harris to defend Wiggins across multiple steps. Too often Denver’s DHO game is contained within tight spaces, making it harder for the Nuggets’ wings to juke their defender back door.

3. Another reason that the paint has been clogged is because rim protecting bigs are daring Jokic to shoot the three. Jokic is attempting a career-high 4.6 three-pointers per game and connecting on a career-low 24.4% of them. Against the Philadelphia 76ers, Joel Embiid ignored Jokic’s three-point attempt for most of the game in favor of taking away any shots at the rim. For three quarters, Jokic wasn’t able to make him pay for it.

Just look at how much Embiid was able to disrupt any drives toward the basket.

And look at how Embiid changed his defensive attack in the 4th quarter after Jokic had knocked down a pair of threes that had helped cut the lead to six.

4. Denver’s second unit got worked over in Friday night’s game against the Philadelphia 76ers but they still contributed to the win in one important way: speeding up the game. Joel Embiid scored 10 of his 19 points in that quarter but it might’ve worked as a bit of a rope-a-dope as the pace of play picked up and might’ve worn him down.

5. How many centers could make this one-handed catch off of a bullet pass through traffic? How many players from any position? Jokic has suction cups for hands.

6. Will Barton made two huge defensive plays in the closing minutes of the 4th quarter against the 76ers. The first was a perfect example of a stunt that caused just enough doubt to force a turnover.

The second was a pure hustle play on a four-on-two fast break for the 76ers. Barton was open on the wing and calling for the ball when Murray got trapped and turned it over with a lazy pass. With just two minutes left in the game, every possession meant the difference between a win and a loss. Fortunately, Barton never gave up on the play and kept Denver’s rally alive.