The last four games of the season could dramatically impact Denver’s future

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — The past three years, Decembers in the Mile High City have been more about looking toward the NFL Draft than about looking at playoff positioning.

This year, unfortunately for the Denver Broncos, is no different.

While the Broncos aren’t technically eliminated from the playoffs yet, it would take a near miracle for Denver to be playing postseason ball this year.

The Broncos need the Miami Dolphins to lose their final four games, while Denver wins out. It’s also possible for the Broncos to make the postseason if the Colts lose out and Denver sweeps their final four games. Is that too much to ask?

At 4-8, that certainly seems like too much to ask. That’s why more eyes are beginning to focus on Denver’s draft position, not playoff position, down the stretch.

Entering Week 14, the Broncos are slated to have the 10th-overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. However, they’re in a four-way tie as three other teams have a 4-8 record. Unfortunately, Denver loses the tiebreaker with Carolina, Atlanta and Miami (via Houston) as the Broncos have the most difficult strength of schedule of the four teams.

Denver’s difficult strength of schedule could very well come back to bite them, again, in almost every scenario in which they have the same record as another team. Strength of schedule is the first tiebreaker used when it comes to determining draft order, with the teams with the most difficult schedule getting the worse pick.

Unfortunately, the Broncos are on track to end the season with the second most difficult strength of schedule (.568) in the entire NFL, only behind the Jets (.599), who Denver likely won’t be tied with at the end of the year.

Saying that, there’s a very large range of where John Elway could be picking in the first round of the draft in a few months.

While it’s still mathematically possible for the Broncos to get the No. 1 overall pick or make the playoffs and have a pick in the 20s, both are highly unlikely.

With the 0-12 Jets, 1-11 Jaguars and 2-9-1 Bengals all hard-pressed to win multiple games in the final quarter of the season, it’s unlikely Denver will have a shot at a top-three pick, even if they don’t win another game this season. However, picking No. 4 overall isn’t out of the question one bit.

Currently, the 3-9 Cowboys have the fourth-overall pick followed by the 3-9 Chargers and the 3-8-1 Eagles. The four 4-8 teams round out the top 10.

That means the Broncos only have one more win than the current No. 4 overall pick. Additionally, Denver plays both the Panthers and the Chargers in their remaining four games. Losses to those teams would significantly help the Broncos get a higher pick in the draft.

However, it’s also quite possible the Broncos win a game, or two, or three, or even four, in the final quarter of the season, which would push them further back in the draft.

The Washington Football Team, the Lions, the Bears and the 49ers all sit one game ahead of the Broncos at 5-7. If Denver wins just one more game than any, or all, of those teams, with their tough strength of schedule, they’ll fall further back in the draft, potentially all the way to No. 14.

The next two picks of the draft, No. 15 and No. 16, are held by the 6-6 Cardinals and Patriots, respectively. Both teams have been wildly inconsistent, so it’s certainly possible for Denver to finish with the same record as them, although that would take at least two, if not three or four, wins by the Broncos.

To round out the non-playoff teams, the 7-5 Ravens and 7-5 Raiders currently own the 17th and 18th overall picks. If those teams win two games down the stretch, it will be impossible for the Broncos to have a worse pick than them in the draft since the best record Denver can now have is 8-8.

Currently sitting with the 10th-overall pick, the Broncos are within one game of the sixth-overall pick and the 14th-overall pick. Elway is two games out of the fourth-overall pick and the 16th pick. That potential eight-to-12 pick swing could have massive implications on Denver’s future.

In the 2020 NFL Draft, the first offensive tackle was taken with the fourth-overall pick. With the 16th-overall pick, the draft’s second cornerback was selected. In 2019, the second quarterback was taken with the sixth-overall pick. Eight picks later, at No. 14, an offensive guard was drafted.

Of course, the success of the draft will ultimately come down to who Elway and the Broncos brass select, not where. But there’s no doubt they’ll have a better chance at landing the right player the higher they are in the draft.

Unfortunately for the team’s draft position, with Denver’s difficult strength of schedule, which is unlikely to change drastically in the final four games, the Broncos are closer to falling back in the draft than they are to moving up.