The hidden value of Nikola Jokic

1. One of the big improvements to Nikola Jokic’s game over the last few seasons has been his comfort level attacking the basket off of the dribble. He shot 68.4% on 1.8 field goal attempts off of drives this season, by far the best mark among players with at least 1.8 attempts per game. Most of Jokic’s drives come off of kickouts like the clips below where his elite footwork and ball-handling help give him a quick first step relative to other bigs.

2. Jokic has also become a more frequent cutter, especially off of slip cuts like in the clips below.

3. One of my favorite plays of the season. Jokic and Will Barton have such great chemistry together that they can invert their typical roles within the flow of the offense and get the same result. Here, Jokic is faking a pindown or clearout to the opposite side of the floor before slipping to the basket and receiving a perfectly timed pass for the easy score.

4. The Nuggets have used Jokic as the ball-handler in the PnR for years and each year he gets a bit more comfortable trying more complicated reads as a scorer. Here, he gives a nice hesitation dribble that freezes the wing defender. We take it for granted but that is a 7-foot center shaking a defensive stopping wing with a hesi in the PnR.

5. Luka Doncic is the master of the “Euro Stomp” but Jokic has also perfected it. He loves to use it as a finishing move after blowing by the first line of defense on the perimeter.

6. Michael Malone has placed Jokic in spots typically reserved for Chris Paul, James Harden, and other lead ball-handling point guards. One great example of this is the play below which the Nuggets have run for years using Jamal Murray as the point guard. With Murray out of the lineup, the Nuggets have placed Jokic in the point spot and run the play the exact same way.

Again, we take for granted how unique this is in NBA history. We’ve seen versatile bigs before but not big who routinely oscillates between playing like Shaquille O’Neal and playing like Chris Paul.

7. The Nuggets even run him off of Iverson cuts, named after the hall of fame scoring guard.

8. What really stands out about Jokic the more you comb over the tape is how frequently he manipulates the defense with subtle, quick decisions like the ones below. It’s not just about the pass or shot that leads to the basket. Quite often it is more about how well a player can manipulate the defense throughout the possession to set the offense up for success. Below are just two examples from the same half of basketball that highlight how often Jokic turns little advantages into enormous ones by constantly reading the court.

9. One underrated thing about this season has been how much Jokic has had to orchestrate the offense while many of the Nuggets’ players have been learning the playbook. Not only is Jokic reading the defense, he’s also often telling his teammates where to go and what to do in real-time. Truly playing chess with all of the other 9 players on the court.

10. Much has been made recently about how Jokic’s absurd rebound numbers may be inflating his defensive impact in the advanced metrics. I’m not so sure that is true. Jokic is an elite rebounder in that he grabs a lot of defensive rebounds, including contested rebounds. But what makes Jokic’s rebounding even more valuable is that he compounds his defensive rebounds by being an elite coast-to-coast threat who forces mismatches in transition.

11. Here are two more great examples of how Jokic turns defensive rebounds into cross-matches on the other end. Defense and offense are separated by possession but they are often intertwined, especially with Jokic who seamlessly transforms from glass-clearing big to playmaking point as quickly as a possession flips from defense to offense.

12. Jokic finished the season 12th in the league in steals per game and 1st among power forwards and centers. He averaged 2.4 “stocks” (steals + blocks) per game which is comparable to Joel Embiid who averaged 2.6 or Giannis who averaged 2.5. While Jokic’s steals don’t always create the same rim protection as an Embiid block, they do add a certain “paint protection” in that he routinely punishes defenders for over-dribbling towards the basket. The result is that players often settle for floaters outside of the restricted area rather than challenging Jokic off of the dribble at the rim.

13. Jokic is the Usain Bolt of the 1-foot dash. That is, Jokic is often the quickest player to react to the ball in 1-foot spaces. He beats players to loose balls or offensive rebounds because of his quick reaction speed and incredible touch.

14. Jokic shot 65.2% on 2FGAs this season which is an absurd number. Embiid shot over 10% lower on 2’s this season, for reference. Even more absurd is the fact that Jokic rebounded his own misses at an elite level this season. One way or another, a Jokic 2-point shot in the half-court results in points almost every single time.

15. And when the ball-movement and half-court offense grinds to a halt, Jokic is one of the best bailout scorers in the league. Jokic took more shots with between 4-7 seconds on the clock than any other player in the NBA and shot better on those attempts than any other player in the top 50 in that category.

He took the 7th most FGAs with 0-4 seconds on the clock and shot a respectable 39% from the field including 45% on 2-point attempts.

16. Another one of Jokic’s best traits as a defender is that he doesn’t give up easy points. Half of the battle on defense is just making guys make their shots without giving them a foul or a blowby. Jokic doesn’t always block shots but he also rarely bails scorers out at the rim.

17. Lastly, as a hope for better days ahead, this sequence from the Nuggets provides a glimmer of hope for how easy things become for Jokic once the team gets some of their best offensive weapons back. Barton was on a roll and knocking down his three-point shot. This forced the Lakers to overplay him on the perimeter which allowed Jokic to more easily pick apart the rotations on the backside.