The Denver Nuggets' season all comes down to this

DENVER — The Nuggets are set to play the most important game in the franchise’s last four seasons Tuesday night in Portland.

Care to know what’s on the line?

Oh, nothing in particular. Just three years of regular season disappointment, sub .500 seasons and an opportunity to revitalize a fan base and city who put the Nuggets on the backburner in 2013 when the team and coach George Karl parted ways.

What about the impact Jusuf Nurkic has made in Portland’s since he arrived there via Denver shortly before February’s trade deadline? Mason Plumlee‘s been good with the Nuggets and will be an above-average reserve center for the next few years, but losing a playoff race to Portland with Nurkic as a driving force in the middle would be a tough pill to swallow.

Here’s what else is at stake: A chance to host two playoff games at Pepsi Center, an arena that’s seen capacity crowds just a few seldom nights this season, and at the same time give valuable playoff exposure to Nikola Jokic, Gary Harris, and Jamal Murray, experience you can’t put a price tag on.

How about the prospects of what one or two dominating performances against the Warriors would do for Jokic, win or lose? The league at large is still catching onto Jokic and they’ll eventually get there, but a big showing on a national stage could help push players and free agents towards wanting to play with Jokic, a notion that’s starting to percolate but still seems a year or two away from happening organically.

The list goes on.

But Tuesday night in Portland, at the Moda Center, against the Trail Blazers, is an elimination game for Denver.

Michael Malone tried to downplay the importance of the showdown with Portland after the Nuggets’ loss to the Pelicans Sunday, calling Tuesday night “the biggest game of the season, because it’s the next game,” but the mood inside Denver’s locker room was different.

One player told BSN Denver after the Nuggets’ loss Sunday that the matchup with Portland was a “the most important game of the season,” and he’s right. With no shot at either tiebreaker (Denver currently trails Portland 1-2 in the season series and is guaranteed a worse division record), Tuesday’s affair is a must-win.

A win over Portland would give Denver a one-game advantage over the Trail Blazers and control of their own destiny, something any team around the league would take at this point in the season. A loss would put the Nuggets a full game behind Portland to start a five-game, 11-day road trip, which takes Denver from Portland to Charlotte, Miami, New Orleans, and Houston.

The loss to the Pelicans Sunday night, a team who may or may not be better without DeMarcus Cousins in the lineup, (Cousins did not play versus Denver), hurts, there’s no doubt about it. The Nuggets had a rare sellout crowd who was loud and rowdy throughout, behind them and flopped. New Orleans is a desperate team right now who’s not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs but is in it just enough to inspire their coaching staff and roster. That hunger and drive was evident Tuesday.

The Nuggets and Trail Blazers are surely hot on each others’ minds ahead of their highly anticipated matchup. Except the Nuggets are holding onto their playoff hopes while the Trail Blazers are hoping to shut that door.

The reality is that Denver has a lot to worry about in Portland Tuesday night. Damian Lillard‘s averaging 30.0 points on 49.0 percent shooting from the field and 43.3 percent from three since the All-Star break. Nurkic, who’s averaging practically a double-double with Portland; 14.3 points and 9.9 rebounds, has transformed the Trail Blazers from a modest defense since he’s been in Rip City that’s giving up 108.4 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the bench, to a stingy one that surrenders just 103.6 points per 100 when he’s on the floor, will be high on Denver’s priority list as well.

The Nuggets would be wise to go after Nurkic early and get the big man in foul trouble, something he was prone to over his time in Denver. However, Jokic is also susceptible to fouls, especially frustration fouls and could just as easily find himself on the bench midway through the first quarter. Which big man can log the most minutes Tuesday could go a long way towards deciding an outcome.

Denver missing the playoffs this season would be a disappointment. Although few saw the eighth seed in the West coming in at such a low win total, the Nuggets’ goal before the season was the playoffs, and that goal became more realistic once it was evident that only 40 wins could take the eighth seed.

A win Tuesday wouldn’t come to close to clinching the eighth seed for Denver, but it will put the Nuggets back in the drivers’ seat for the West’s last playoff spot. Denver has eight games remaining and a difficult schedule, but one that could soften up down the stretch if Oklahoma City is locked into the sixth slot (who the Nuggets play twice over their last three regular season games), and Dallas, who’s 3.5 games out and could be looking towards the lottery by that point.

A loss, on the other hand, which would drop Denver to essentially two games behind Portland with eight to play factoring in tiebreakers, could be too much to overcome. It could also jumpstart one of the most interesting offseasons in recent memory. Denver will navigate the likely unrestricted free agency of Danilo Gallinari, the uncertainty around Wilson Chandler, who voiced displeasure around his role prior to the trade deadline, and an overcrowded roster that’s bursting at the seams with Murray and Juancho Hernangomez due for increased roles next season.

“It will be fun,” Jameer Nelson said of Tuesday night’s contest. “Obviously it’s going to be a playoff atmosphere. It will be a fun game, and we’ll see what happens.”