The Broncos' third down and red zone problems stem from a different problem

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — September 24th was the first time “red zone” and “third down” struggles were murmured within the Denver Broncos organization, moments after the team’s first loss of the season at the hands of the Buffalo Bills.

Over the following month, the murmurs turned into daily chants and the No. 1 talking point by the offensive staff, nearly every player and even all the way up to head coach Vance Joseph in terms of how to “fix” the struggling offense.

Rightfully so, too.

After starting the first two games on an impressive tear on third down conversions—converting over 56 percent—the offense took a step back against the Bills—going 6-for-14, still a respectable 43 percent—before plummeting the last three weeks, converting just over 27 percent—third-worst in the league in that time.

The Broncos’ red zone statistics mirror their third-down pattern over the first six weeks. After starting 7-for-9 in the red zone the first two games, they’ve gone a dismal 2-for-12 over the past four games greatly contributing to the team’s 1-3 record during that stretch.

But the problems of both, specifically third down, stem further than the devastating statistics themselves. The root of the problem can be traced back to the start of each down and distance.

“We have to be better first and second down in general,” quarterback Trevor Siemian stressed when asked how to fix the offenses third down struggles. “When we throw it, I have to be better to get out of these third and longs because they’ve killed us the last couple weeks.”

Over the past three games, while Denver has the sixth-fewest third down conversions (4.3), they have the third-most attempts (15.7). This means not only have the Broncos been awful at converting third downs, they’ve given themselves too many opportunities by not getting the job done on second, and more importantly, first down.

“Right now, we’re bad at winning first downs,” Joseph said bluntly as he reflected on the offenses lull. “When you’re behind the sticks so much—in our three losses it’s been that way. First down is a stuff, second down is a quick pass, incomplete, and now we’re third-and-10. Who wants to operate like that?”

Joseph’s question, of course, was rhetorical. But his team has had to answer that many times mid-game the past month as they’ve consistently been in third-and-long situations.

“We had third-and-long probably eight to nine times [against the Los Angeles Chargers]. We can’t operate like that,” Joseph said with clear frustration in his voice. “Again, offensively, our formula is to run the football, play action pass and to keep us in manageable third downs. That’s where Trevor is comfortable. It doesn’t matter who the quarterback is if he’s not being protected or the run game is not effective.”

Against popular belief, the Broncos aren’t abandoning the run late into a game when they are down, they are abandoning it each and every series depending on the success of first down. That is the losing formula that Joseph has preached against the past month.

“We want to be good on first and second downs—getting the rhythm,” Siemian said. “If we’re good on the first and second downs, then we get a rhythm, and it’ll help with crowd noise. It will help our offense. It will help our defense. I think that’s where our focus is right now.”

Third-and-longs, along with having a lower success rate than shorter third downs, makes the team one-dimensional and makes that one-dimension even more difficult because the defense can tee off on the quarterback and drop more players into coverage. While a 3rd-and-3 will force a defense to prepare for both the run and pass, a 3rd-and-8 can allow them to just prepare for a pass.

When Joseph was asked how the Broncos’ can better protect Siemian, seemingly an unrelated question to first down success, he pointed directly to this problem that has greatly contributed to Denver scoring an average of 10.5 points per game over their last four.

“That comes with a lot of things, and that comes with winning first downs,” he said. “If we can stay out of third and longs, we can protect Trevor better. But once the sticks get longer and longer, you have two guys like that off the edge, it’s tough to protect. You can’t help both tackles. You can’t. You can help one guy. I think running the football better and having our quick game work on early downs will help protect Trevor better.”

It will likely be easier said than done, but an important step in fixing any problem is first identifying the root cause. Last year the Broncos were among the worst at converting 3rd-and-short. This year, that looks like a dream as they haven’t been able to get in 3rd-and-shorts often.