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How is it possible that a team that made so few offseason changes to their lineup has introduced an entirely new element to the offense?
Those who claim the Colorado Rockies had a lackluster run-scoring prowess a year ago, and that they’ve done little from a personnel standpoint to address those concerns, are right on both counts.
They will return the same starting players at third, shortstop, second, center, and left field. Right field and first base appear to be primed for young players we’ve seen before, though admittedly not enough to arrive at any conclusions. It’s hard to even earnestly frame the new catcher (get it?) as a new catcher.
It also looks like every member of the bench will be a returning player unless a late acquisition is made.
Sure, Chris Iannetta spent some time in Los Angeles, Seattle, and Arizona in between, but every member of this roster has been a Rockie before.
So, how is it possible that they can now do something they couldn’t before? And what exactly am I talking about?
There are plenty of ways in which the offense could improve from within, and we’ve discussed these before, but there is one specific aspect of the offense that will almost certainly be leaps and bounds better than it was in 2017. Speed.
In many ways, the expected improvements in this department come from the same places in which the offense, in general, should be expected to get better, beginning with the health of a couple of key outfielders in Ian Desmond and David Dahl.
Desmond was by far the most dangerous Rockie on the basepaths a year ago, which speaks to how much room there is to improve here. He led Colorado with 15 stolen bases but otherwise made his athleticism a factor on multiple occasions, at one point leading MLB in infield hits and regularly taking extra bases that led to runs. That he only played in 95 games meant that the Rockies spent much of the season without their best speed threat.
Even if he doesn’t play better, if he only plays more but at pretty much the same rate, Desmond’s feet are sure to play a bigger role in 2018.
The far more extreme example of this problem came in the complete absence of David Dahl who, like Desmond, simply has to play a bit more to have this weapon in his arsenal serve the team. Once Dahl is added to the MLB roster, he becomes at worst the second-fastest player on the club, after Raimel Tapia, and the best overall baserunner.
Speaking of Tapia, it remains to be seen whether he can better Carlos Gonzalez of a year ago at the plate, but there is no doubt that he poses a much bigger threat on the basepaths.
With the expected increase in use of those three players alone, Colorado is looking at approximately 1,000 more at-bats for the team by players who can run well. These at-bats were taken last season by Gonzalez, Gerardo Parra, and Alexi Amarista.
Ryan McMahon should have a harder time replacing Mark Reynold’s bat than Tapia will Gonzalez, but the speed difference is similar. McMahon isn’t exactly a burner but you absolutely have to be aware of him and he’ll be far superior to the remarkably slow Reynolds.
On top of all this is the possibility that players like Desmond and Trevor Story do bounce back and get on base more in 2018, giving their legs more opportunities to go to work.
As it stands, Colorado could comfortably throw out a lineup with four guys with great speed (Tapia, Dahl, Desmond, Story) and two guys with good speed (two of Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, or Ryan McMahon) and still have one on the bench.
speed plays up the more guys in your lineup who have it. There’s less of a chance a speedy player gets stuck behind a slow one and it creates a constant pressure on pitchers and defenses. It can take the focus off the hitter for just a moment, giving an advantage to the hitter, and it can turn those frustrating moments of a runner stuck at third into runs on balls in the dirt or more green lights in the first place.
While it’s always nice to dream about adding a player with 30 home run power or a potential .330 hitter, those almost always come with tradeoffs somewhere. They say guys like J.D. Martinez make up for the lack of defense and speed by just hitting the lights out. That may be true.
But it may also be true that baseball games are won in context, not out of them, and having a weakness in the wrong spot at the wrong time can cost you everything in this game. Charlie Blackmon came to symbolize what the Rockies consider to be the ideal baseball player before he broke out as a star when he was just a good all-around player who didn’t give you negative value anywhere on the diamond. They’ve slowly been building toward a roster full of these players ever since. And now they have it.
Believe it or not, this was always a part of the Desmond plan.
The 2017 Colorado Rockies offense was, indeed, lackluster. And they made the postseason anyway. The investment in the bullpen and commitment to players with excellent defense and, yes, speed shows a team determined to win games on the margins.
And that’s where the championships are.