The Avs took a calculated risk at goaltender this summer; did Colorado get it right in net?

On June 26th, 2022, the job was done. It was speculated but not yet known that Darcy Kuemper had simultaneously played his final game in an Avalanche uniform. He spent just one season in Denver, but it was enough to become a Stanley Cup Champion. From the risk he carried coming from Arizona on the heels of a 0.907 SV% season to the cost of it all: Conor Timmins, a first-round pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, and a conditional third-round pick in the 2024 NHL Draft, Kuemper’s time in Colorado left a mark.

He finished 37-12-4 with 57 starts, a 0.921 SV%, and made 1,616 saves – the 6th most of any Avalanche goaltender just behind Semyon Varlamov’s 2014-15 season. He had a career-best with respect to both his total starts – the most of any season – alongside the expected goals against based on the caliber of shots he faced, but in the playoffs, his numbers suffered by comparison.

He found a way despite the unfortunate eye injury in Game 3 of the first round against Nashville – an injury that would follow him throughout the playoffs. It was panic-inducing at times too. Through this, goaltender Pavel Francouz gave us additional fond memories. Francouz closed out that Nashville series and swept the Western Conference Final. The joint effort in net combined with a relentless Colorado team granted almost everyone a perfect, short summer.

The risk of bringing on an unproven goaltender like Kuemper was partially mitigated by the short term, just one year remaining in his contract, and $1 million retained by Arizona. This meant that free agency crept up fast. There were conversations on both sides but on July 13th, Kuemper signed with the Washington Capitals on a $5×5.25 AAV contract. It is just the fourth time in NHL history that the starting goaltender from the Stanley Cup-winning team vacated the role in the offseason. It placed Colorado in a familiar position of goaltender turnover.

After three seasons, Philipp Grubauer tested the market and departed in a similar fashion. Before him was the long tenure of Semyon Varlamov who gave the Avs eight seasons in net but injuries played a role in Colorado’s approach to the position.

Varlamov missed time in the 2016-17 season after undergoing hip surgery. He attempted to complete the next season following the procedure, but a collision in late March sidelined him for the remainder of that year. The Avs had to rely on the services of their backup goaltender, Jonathan Bernier who was later injured as well. He left that summer in free agency. 

The goaltending landscape underwent an overhaul in general –  Colorado brought in goaltender coach, Jussi Parkkila that July.

Next entered Pavel Francouz. Just a couple of weeks after Nashville eliminated them in the playoffs, Colorado pursued the undrafted goaltender looking to transition to the NHL. Francouz signed a one-year, one-way deal that May. A month later, Grubauer and Brooks Orpik were acquired in a trade in exchange for a 2018 second-round pick. The following day, the Avs locked Grubauer into that three-year deal that would come and go.

The 6’0” right-catching netminder had risen through the ranks of Czechia national teams and pro leagues before making the leap to the KHL where he saw great success.

That first season Francouz, a Czechia native who spent three seasons with KHL’s Traktor Chelyabinsk, acclimated to North American ice in the AHL with the Colorado Eagles. He assumed the role of starting goaltender, posted a 0.918 SV%, was named to the 2019 AHL All-Star Classic, and made his NHL debut in his rookie 2018-19 season.

The next year, Grubauer experienced recurring injury troubles and split starts with Francouz. The tandem saw success in the shortened COVID-19 season. Francouz posted a 0.923 SV% through 34 games and Grubauer earned a 0.916 SV% through 36 games.

That year in the bubble playoffs Francouz struggled. Colorado surpassed Arizona in the first round 5-1 with the help of solid goaltending from Grubauer. His season unfortunately ended in Game 1 against the Dallas Stars and Francouz came in as relief. The Avs were bounced in seven games and Michael Hutchinson played the final three games after Francouz was deemed unfit to dress due to injury. He finished with a 3.23 GAA and a 0.892 SV%.

He built a positive portfolio of work in the regular season (11.11 GSAA), but the disappointment of the second round exit blemished Francouz’s year. His progress was further interrupted. He had double knee surgery in the offseason and was placed on long term injury reserve for the 2020-21 season. He then had hip surgery in February and missed the entire year.

When he returned for the 2021-22 season, he also entered the final year of his contract. During a preseason game against the Vegas Golden Knights, he left the game in the second period with a sprained ankle that kept him sidelined until his conditioning stint with the Colorado Eagles in December.

Finally he could resume what he started. By March he had a 0.918 SV% through 11 games played. On March 12th, he re-signed with Colorado for two more years. He knew their starter at the time, Darcy Kuemper, would enter free agency that summer with the possibility to re-sign in Denver again. It didn’t influence his decision to re-up in spring.

“Especially after what happened the year before when I had hip surgery, the team took great care of me,” Francouz explained. “So, I felt like I didn’t have any reason to change anything. I’m happy here, [and] so is my family. It’s one of the best teams in the world. It was a no-brainer for me to sign the deal. I could have waited for the offseason to try free agency, but as I mentioned, I have [had] zero thoughts about changing.”

The extension was a key step in solidifying the Avs’ future in net. Colorado had other roster decisions to nail down too – namely a massive Nathan MacKinnon contract. On July 10th, Alexandar Georgiev was acquired from the New York Rangers in exchange for a third and fifth round pick in the NHL Draft (which they used to select Bryce McConnell-Barker and Maxim Barbashev) as well as a third-round pick in 2023. He signed a contract for $3×3.4 AAV.

Together, Georgiev’s and Francouz’s contracts were a combined $5.4 million cap hit – a decidedly low cost compared to other tandems throughout the league and just $150K more than what Kuemper alone got from the Caps.

The price point was convincing, but would it be a viable solution? Yet again, Colorado would test an unproven goaltender in net. Joe Sakic said that Georgiev was brought in to be the starter. Jared Bednar reaffirmed that sentiment, “He finds himself looking for a starting position. We have one that’s available or at least up for grabs.”

The introduction of Georgiev was a shake-up. Had this changed much for Francouz’s future? Critics have been mixed on the evaluation of his upside. He played comfortably behind Kuemper and clawed the Avs through the dog days of the playoffs. Could he too be a starter?

“You [can’t] see what’s going to happen in the future,” Francouz said. “ I’m always trying to be the best possible me and focus on that. In today’s today’s NHL, you need to play with both goalies to keep them fresh. The schedule is also really tight, so I think we will both see a lot of action. I hope we’ll push each other to be better and help this team to win as many games as possible.”

That 2019-20 season was a successful example of shared starts, but it was brought on out of necessity due to Grubauer’s injuries. The recreation of that season relies heavily on one critical unknown – can Alexandar Georgiev re-launch his career as a starter and assume much of that workload?

Colorado and Georgiev are certainly counting on it. A three-year contract, not so different from the one given to Grubauer once upon a time, hopes to strike a sweet spot of keeping Georgiev past this season but without too much risk on term. There’s a lot for him to prove here.

Similar to Francouz, Georgiev went undrafted and impressed through several seasons in the Finnish pro league. The left-catching goaltender helped Russia earn a silver medal in 2016 with a 3-1 record, along with a 2.52 GAA, in five games. He also established Liiga career-bests in his final season in wins, league-leading goals against average, and save percentage (0.923).

He was invited to the New York Rangers 2017 camp and earned a professional contract. He made his NHL debut that year but would split the first two seasons in the AHL. By the 2019-20 season, he solidified a full-time place in the NHL, but his record over the next three seasons revealed a concerning trend: a decline from each regular season to the next. The 26-year-old’s last season ended with an 0.898 SV% in 33 games (28 starts).

His high-danger save percentage improved from his 2021 season (0.798) into 2022 (0.804), but the overall projection alongside other goaltenders in the league still left much to be desired.

Important context for Georgiev’s last year in New York was his well-known desire to be a full-time starter. Behind Vezina winner Igor Shesterkin, that dream wasn’t very conceivable. He changed agents in March and it was reported that he wanted to be moved. The organization needed a backup for the remainder of the year, so it would not happen until the summer.

“I was looking for opportunities to be a starter and I was expecting to be moved for a while,” Georgiev explained. “ [I’m] not going to say how long, but [it was] a while. The change [of agents] was kind of connected with that as well.”

“It definitely did affect the season,” Georgiev explained of his head space last spring. “Not too much fun to be had last season. I wanted an opportunity to be in a place where I thought it was the right spot for me. I’m grateful for the opportunity here. It’s what I’ve always wanted, so I’m happy to get going.”

An intriguing and possibly understated component for consideration is the impact of Jussi Parkkila. Parkkila’s first three seasons in Colorado were also Grubauer’s. In his third season, Grubauer emerged as a Vezina finalist. Under his tutelage, Kuemper raised his save percentage and achieved a career-high goals saved above expected.

Francouz has worked with Parkkila for several seasons.

“He has a good personality for [it] because he really demands every little detail to be as best as possible,” Francouz said. “Not perfect. Perfect would be perfect for him. He’s a really tough coach but also he’s fair. He’s fun to be around. You can joke around, but also when it’s business time, he’s really sharp. When he sees something, he will tell you. He’s really honest, that’s what makes him really good.”

A good goaltending coach helps. Just look at Benoit Allaire, the goaltending coach for the New York Rangers who has had a hand in the emergence of Henrik Lundqvist and Shesterkin.

“He’s a super experienced goalie coach,” Georgiev said. “He was at the forefront of inventing [the] butterfly, and he had so many great goalies that he worked with. I picked up a lot of things from him. We worked a lot [on] how he saw the game [and] how he wanted the goalies to play.”

Sometimes a new perspective helps too.

“It’s very different,” Georgiev explained of his experience with Parkkila so far. “We come out early every day to work. Some things are the same but at the same time, he sees a different vision for how he wants me to play the game. We’ll be working on that step by step. It’s already very enjoyable. We also watch a lot of video too. I’m excited to get going with him.”

Colorado undoubtedly took a risk in net for this season. Parkkila may be doing some of the heavy lifting to inspire the organization’s confidence in the outcome. Much of it rests in the individual hands of Francouz and Georgiev. The quiet difference between a split tandem and the emergence of a true starter will be an interesting storyline to keep an eye on too.

Another angle is the current construction of this Avalanche team. Colorado worked hard to bring back personnel from last year’s Cup-winning team: Josh Manson, Val Nichushkin, Darren Helm, Andrew Cogliano, and former RFA Arturri Lehkonen. It came at the expense of Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakovsky, and Darcy Kuemper, but like everything the front office does, it’s all a calculated risk.

With a defense that is made up of Norris trophy winner Cale Makar, Devon Toews, Bo Byram, Sam Girard, Erik Johnson, and Manson – it remains highly competitive. This may be another significant factor in Colorado’s calculations.

Finally, there’s nothing quite like a renewed opportunity to give a goaltender a clean slate.

“The team is so amazing,” Georgiev said. “There’s so much [to like]. Everybody wants to win every single game here. It makes me so excited. Everything is so exciting: the teammates, the atmosphere, and a new city as well. It’s awesome. It’s very beautiful – the nature. [It’s] so clean, so sunny.”