The Avalanche's Faustian Bargain: whether to play Cale Makar or not

First off, a Faustian Bargain is: damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

The Avalanche, it would seem, have one on their hands. If they DO sign Cale Makar to a contract tonight or tomorrow, and he DOES play one minute for the Avs in these playoffs, the phenom defenseman prospect automatically burns a year off his entry-level contract AND he’ll have to be protected in the next NHL expansion draft for the Seattle franchise, which will happen some time in 2021.

If the Avs DON’T sign and play Makar, they will deprive themselves of having the services of a blue-chip prospect, a guy who could step right in and make a real difference in the Avs winning this series and advancing further in the playoffs or not.

Under the expansion rules, which are expected to be the same as they were for Las Vegas, the Avs will be able to protect three defensemen, seven forwards or eight skaters of any combination, and one goalie.

Because Erik Johnson has a no-movement clause in his contract, he would have to be a defenseman protected. However, he COULD waive that no-move clause and be exposed, if he chose.

If Makar doesn’t play at all in these playoffs, he’ll be exempt from the expansion draft.

It would seem a no-brainer to many of you out there to just wait until next year on the kid, right? Why burn that ELC year and have to protect him and thus maybe expose someone like a Tyson Barrie or a Nikita Zadorov or a Sam Girard?

Here’s one point that gets overlooked, though, in favor of signing him now. The Avs may want those three years of the ELC to burn off as fast as they can, because four years from now, his market value probably will be a lot higher than three years from now. He’d theoretically cost less on that first post-ELC deal than having to keep waiting another year for it to expire. If he signs a contract by tomorrow and does NOT play in the playoffs, a year of his ELC will burn off anyway.

The Avs are saying they will try to sign him right away tonight or tomorrow.

Maybe this is what the plan is: sign him, burn that ELC so they’re closer to re-signing him on that second deal and NOT playing him, to make him exempt from the expansion draft.

That would accomplish one goal, and arguably be very sensible in another aspect.

But what if they want to just roll the dice and get their Hobey Baker winner out there right away, and expansion draft be damned? Damn the Faustian Bargain, in other words.

It should be a very interesting next 48 hours around here.