The Avalanche can learn a lot from Martin Kaut's success

In what was a season full of fun Avalanche stories, the halting of the NHL season stole what might have been a memorable playoff run and overshadowed an important story that emerged during the second rash of ridiculous injuries for the Avalanche.

That story was Martin Kaut.

When the charismatic 19-year-old was called up, it was meaningful for several reasons.

Not only was it the first NHL look for Colorado’s 2018 first round selection, but it was also the Avs turning to one of their impact prospects looking for help.

Their forward call-ups to that point had been the usual suspects, guys like Logan O’Connor, A.J. Greer, Jayson Megna, and T.J. Tynan.

Because of the soured relationship between Greer and the organization, O’Connor is the only one who could be considered a real prospect with Megna and Tynan both at least 27-years-old and even the best-case scenario for O’Connor is carving out an NHL career killing penalties and using his speed to cause problems from the fourth line.

The same can’t be said for Kaut, who came into the year as one of Colorado’s top prospects as he entered his second year in the AHL after being plucked out of the Czech Republic’s top pro league.

After a promising preseason that included a very strong performance at the Rookie Showcase in California, Kaut struggled early on with the Eagles as injuries and ineffectiveness got him off to a glacial start to his sophomore campaign.

He got healthy and slowly built towards a stronger second half of the year and when he finally got the call from the Avs, he contributed immediately.

It wasn’t that Kaut was incredible in his nine-game sample. It was that he was simply ready. He registered three points (2g, 1a) in nine games while averaging 10:08 of ice time and recorded at least one shot on goal in all of his appearances except his debut, where he also had his lowest ice time.

Kaut got consistently better and looked very comfortable in all three zones, a rarity for a player of his age. The underlying shot metrics support a player still finding his way on offense but one who responsibly took care of his own zone.

Despite the league coming to a halt because of the pandemic, the Avalanche had already decided they were sending Kaut back to the Eagles to preserve the entirety of his entry-level contract. The reality was that despite his promising performance, Kaut wasn’t going to crack the roster once the Avs got healthy, which they were rapidly approaching when everything shut down.

It was a business decision with Kaut but his performance should have sent the front office not just a message about how to plan for next season’s team but how the Avs should consider altering their strategy calling players up.

Again, Kaut wasn’t a star. He was simply ready to make a difference. The same can’t be said for Megna and Tynan, two AHL veterans who seemed to get calls based on good preseason play (something Jared Bednar has valued highly because it’s his own evaluation of the players) and strong AHL performances.

But the tinkering with Megna and Tynan ended with predictable results: 24 games combined, 1 assist registered.

While you aren’t expecting those guys to light the world on fire, especially in limited roles (both averaged under the 10:08 of ice time Kaut averaged), they can’t be offensive black holes, either. It simply puts too much pressure on guys ahead of them who are already playing up in the lineup.

The answer here is to stop with the AHL veterans. Maybe not entirely, as we saw the Avs unearth a gem in Ryan Graves but Graves was also 23, so his career trajectory was still trending upwards, but certainly as their main focus of the call-up process.

In previous years, it was understandable when Colorado used their call-ups primarily on the Andrew Aggozino’s of the world. Their AHL club hasn’t been a breeding ground for many prolonged NHL careers in recent years.

With the Avs boasting the strongest prospect pipeline they’ve arguably ever had, the success of Kaut should signal to the front office that a shift in their circular logic should be in order.

It’s natural to want to reward the best efforts from your AHL club, but when the AHL team is giving the AHL veterans such as Tynan and Megna (among others) the bulk of the ice time, it’s also natural for them to succeed at the highest rate.

That success then justifies the thinking of calling them up, resulting in a feedback loop that has consistently left developing prospects out in the cold. It’s been a problem in the last few years and with the strength of the current system, it’s time we see the organization make the shift towards deferring to younger players.

It’s a strategy that has been successful most notably in Pittsburgh, an organization that has regularly produced NHL regulars from its mid-round selections and undrafted free agents. The common thread between guys like Conor Sheary, Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust, and Teddy Blueger is simply opportunity.

When the Penguins have needed reinforcements, they’ve leaned on prospects first and then resorted to AHL veterans (such as Agozzino himself this past year). Doing so not only has created a culture where prospects are getting the opportunity in the NHL, it shows that putting the work in at the AHL level is getting rewarded as well.

It also has the added benefit of giving the prospects a little taste of the NHL, which can be a very powerful motivating factor. After his nine-game sample this year, which version of Martin Kaut do you think is showing up at the next Avalanche training camp? It will be the best version of him we’ve ever seen and that’s no small part due to the experience he had as a call-up.

As Colorado looks to perfect the balancing act of developing and competing in the next few years, using Martin Kaut’s success should be something the organization notes and prioritizes next season as they try to find room for other young players knocking on the NHL’s door such as Conor Timmins and Shane Bowers.

How the Avalanche transition their top-flight prospect system into NHL players will play a major role in determining how successful this era of Avalanche hockey will be. Should they succeed, it’s not unreasonable to believe multiple Stanley Cup wins await.

If they’re unable to transition into Cup contention on the back of their young stars, it will be another indictment of a development system that has long struggled to produce consistent results beyond the top 10 of the draft.