Sundays at the Rink: Trade Deadline comes and goes

Jesse’s Observations

Avalanche stand pat on Deadline Day

Whew. What a week. 

This was one of the more chaotic NHL trade deadlines that I can remember in recent years. Big names on the move, teams unexpectedly deciding to sell, and more deals in the days and weeks leading up to the deadline than ever before. 

We’ll get into all of that here in just a few moments, but let’s start with what ultimately ended up being a complete dud of a day (league-wide) on March 3rd.

43 trades made in the two weeks leading up to the NHL’s trade cutoff date, yet when we got to the big day itself, there were fewer than a half dozen trades locked in with less than 90 minutes to go before the deadline passed. 

With every trade that happened leading up to it, the anticipation built for what we all thought was going to be an explosive deadline day with trades rolling in fast than we could keep track of. The expectation was that contending teams would be loading up at the last minute like never before, given what we had been seeing in the Eastern Conference. 

That expectation absolutely extended to the Colorado Avalanche. We here at DNVR had been treating this deadline like it was a forgone conclusion that the Avs would be active all season long. I wrote last week that I believed it was always Colorado’s plan to take a big swing at this year’s deadline. I even said I thought that was specifically why they worked so hard to hold on to their 2023 1st Round pick.

Early on there were a number of big names available on the trade market, and a number of them made sense for the Avs and their roster needs. 

Guys like Ryan O’Reilly, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Bo Horvat, Adam Henrique. In maybe that next talent tier down there were guys like Max Domi or Vlad Tarasenko.

The Avs have had a glaring hole in their top six ever since Nazem Kadri left to sign with the Calgary Flames and that was always what we assumed they would make their top priority. 

There was also always going to be depth additions they could make, and we knew that would happen too. It just really felt like all the stars had aligned over the last few seasons for them to make a strong push in a weak Western Conference, and push their chips to the middle in Nathan MacKinnon’s last season as a $6M player in an attempt to repeat as back-to-back Stanley Cup Champions. 

The depth moves came down the pipe (more on that in a second) as expected, but what never materialized for the Avs was the big splash. The big move that put them head and shoulders above the rest of the Western Conference. 

Avs fans hated it, and I’ll be honest, I definitely understand why come felt like it was a disappointment. 

Given the state of the conference, and the needs this Avalanche team had, it felt like a bit of a letdown for the Avalanche to add nothing to their top six. There are a couple factors that play into this. 

First, I think the market kind of shrunk beneath them. Let’s look at those names I listed a few paragraphs back.  O’Reilly, traded three weeks before the deadline. Toews, season over due to symptoms of long-covid. Kane, utilized his NTC and said “Rangers or bust”. Horvat, moved a month ahead of the deadline. 

Anybody that you would consider to be a ‘Plan A’ type of player was, for all intents and purposes, never available. 

When it came to that next tier of players, I believe the Avalanche either didn’t feel comfortable with prices that were being asked, or didn’t have the assets to outbid any competitors. 

Maybe I shouldn’t say they couldn’t outbid other teams, they would have just had to pay a much higher premium in order to do so.

As much as Avalanche fans want to be disappointed or frustrated with the way things shook out, and I don’t totally blame them, it’s important to keep in mind that this is the exact same management group that has turned everything they’ve touched into gold for the last five years. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to take a “wait and see” approach with how all of this ultimately goes. 

If Colorado goes on another deep run here, them holding onto their assets will look brilliant. If it turns into. First round exit, I think it would be fair to say they needed to do more. 

My personal theory is that Chris MacFarland looked at each other and said… we’ve gotten zero luck this year, we can’t even say with 100% certainty that our own guys will be back healthy, let’s just roll with what we’ve got because we still believe we have the best team in the West. 

I don’t think it’s a terrible bet. 

Lars Eller highlights depth moves

The Avalanche stood pat on the day of, but they were plenty busy in the weeks leading up by bolstering their depth. 

Part of what made them so extremely difficult to play against in last year’s postseason was the fact that they just rolled line after line after line. They could go 12 players deep on most nights and other teams just couldn’t. So it was obvious that was a formal they were going to try and replicate. 

It started by bringing back Matt Nieto in what was probably the best deal the Avs made this season. MacFarland moved two non-roster players for a legitimate impact bottom-six player and an intriguing prospect in Ryan Merkley. 

Then the Avs moved Shane Bowers for a fifth goalie for the organization in Keith Kinkaid. 

Then just days before the March 3rd cutoff GM Chris MacFarland health a 2025 second-round pick to acquire Lars Eller from the Washington Capitals. 

“It was a steep draft pick price… for a good hockey player. A solid, veteran, a big body in the middle of the ice”#Avs GM on the acquisition of Lars Eller. pic.twitter.com/uuXLB3DljU

— DNVR Avalanche (@DNVR_Avalanche) March 4, 2023

▪️ Josh Manson will “miss some time” – his current injury is related to his last. Bednar doesn’t have a timetable yet
▪️ Cale Makar is IN
▪️ Val Nichushkin’s status is TBD because he’s sick
▪️ Jared Bednar on bringing Lars Eller up to speed now that he’s had more time: pic.twitter.com/Mgw7QUDeoO

— Meghan Angley (@megangley) March 3, 2023

Before we get into cost, because that’s a conversation too. Let’s talk about the player, because I think there’s a lot to like about Eller. 

This is a guy that our very own AJ Haefele has done his homework on in the past, so I wanted to get his perspective on this first:

Over the last seven years or so, I’ve always loved Lars Eller and viewed him as the quintessential third-line center. His commitment to playing an honest game in both ends has always played up in the postseason and he’s consistently found ways to be a perfect glue guy for competitive teams.

He’s never been a great offensive player but he works hard on the cycle and can fit in alongside skill players if need be. He’s hit a bit of a wall this year and at his age, it’s fair to wonder if it was a tough situation in Washington or age catching up to him, but answering that question could have a real impact on how far the Avs go in their Cup defense. 

I think of the moves they made last year, I think of this one as somewhere between Lehkonen and Cogliano in terms of the type of impact the Avalanche are hoping to get. 

The second-round pick, seems a bit high of a price. Add in the context of it’s a pick in the 2025 draft, and I officially don’t care about it. To me, this is almost a free move. Obviously, you wait and see what that pick turn into, but that’s kind of the point. In order to wait and see you’re waiting probably 5-7 years. 

As an NHL player told me last week, unless they’re a late bloomer that absolutely pops in their D+1 year, a second-round pick isn’t even in NHL consideration for at least two full years after they’re drafted. 

So, if the Capitals hit that pick out of the park and that second-round pick turns into a full-time NHL player.. you’re talking about that player making the opening night roster in 2030.

You can recoup that pick later if need be as well, but either way, I’m looking at this as the Avalanche got an impactful bottom-six center for pick three drafts from now. You can only like that in my opinion.  

Biggest winner at this year’s TDL

Just wanted to put in my two cents here on who I thought had the best deadline. Not because anybody cares what little old me thinks, but because I thought this team made the biggest strides inter contention. 

The Toronto Maple Leafs have me more bought in on their Stanley Cup chances than ever before. Time will tell if turning over 25% of their roster at the deadline, but I will say I fully respect them for saying “we have needs, and we’re gonna fill them”.

Kyle Dubas is managing for his job right now. If the Leafs don’t get out of the first round, there’s a good chance he’s done.

I don’t know if it’ll work, but I’m not actually that shocked to see Dubas going rogue like this. https://t.co/ct9QnNE5pk

— Jesse Montano (@jessemontano_) February 28, 2023

Kyle Dubas knows the score. He knows that the organization will be changed from the ground up if they don’t find a way to play beyond the first round of the playoffs, and he’s pushing every chip he has to the middle.

The Ryan O’Reilly deal in particular really moved the needle for me. That was such a great move for them, that gave them a totally different dynamic to their team. One they’ve never had before. One of the moves that the Avalanche made last year that I thought made a lot of sense was swapping Tyson Jost for Nico Sturm. 

That was a 4th line move, but I thought it made sense because it gave the Avs something different. Jost was too much of the same guy that they already had. 

That’s O’Reilly and the Leafs for me. He’s a defensive force up front and gives them a matchup option against other team’s top lines. 

Dubas’ job is on the line, but I think he did everything he could to give himself a chance. 

Max Domi

I just want to add a tiny quick note here on Domi. 

This is a guy that we talked a lot about potentially being a target for the Avs, and when you saw the price that the Stars paid… it really made you wonder why the Avs didn’t pursue that harder. 

TRADE

To Dallas #TexasHockey
F Max Domi
G Dylan Wells

To Chicago #Blackhawks
G Anton Khudobin
2025 2nd round Pickhttps://t.co/pOmLyOX15A

— CapFriendly (@CapFriendly) March 3, 2023

So, why did the Avs pay an extremely similar price for Lars Eller that the Stars did for Domi?

In short, after some conversations post-deadline, my understanding is that there were serious questions about how Domi would fit stylistically. I would maybe even say that it is the reason we never really heard much about the Avalanche even kicking tires on him. 

They did a deal with Chicago to bring in Jack Johnson, so I’m sure Domi’s name came up, but I’ll just say that they never pursued it seriously. 

Rudo’s Observations

Meghan’s Observations

Tampa Bay, Tanner Jeannot, and more

Last Sunday, the Tampa Bay Lightning acquired 25-year-old winger Tanner Jeannot from the Nashville Predators. The Lightning exchanged defenseman Cal Foote, a conditional 1st-round pick in the 2025 NHL Draft, a 2nd-round pick in the 2024 NHL Draft and 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks in the 2023 NHL Draft.

In most recent history, Tampa Bay is an experienced team when it comes to maximizing their window.

They serve as something of a blueprint: they secured back-to-back Stanley Cup championships, three straight Finals appearances, a heralded AHL to NHL graduation rate, and they appear competitive yet again this season.

In 2020, the Tampa Bay Lightning sought out Barclay Goodrow and gave up a first-round pick and a depth American League player to make it happen. They received a third-round pick in return.

Last year, Tampa traded for Brandon Hagel – they exchanged two first-round picks in 2023 and 2024 and two fringey-roster players but similar to Goodrow recouped two fourth-round draft picks.

Similarly, third-line centerman Nick Paul was traded by Ottawa to the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for Mathieu Joseph and a 2024 fourth-round draft pick last year as well.

Hagel has panned out well for Tampa as a top-six winger, Paul signed an extension and has earned a place on their third line, and Goodrow profiles similarly to Colorado’s own Logan O’Connor. What is Jeannot’s role in all of this?

Though 25-years-old, Jeannot’s breakout rookie season came about just last year in Nashville. He notched 24 goals and 17 assists and finished the year among Calder considerations. The 6’2” 208 lbs., winger is a formidable opponent.

He has solidified a place on Nashville’s and now Tampa’s third line. He merges being gritty, physical, and difficult to play against (similar to Goodrow and Paul) with a little offense (similar to Hagel). 

His production has dipped quite a bit compared to his first year with five goals and nine assists through 56 games with Nashville, so Tampa’s hot pursuit of him is interesting.

When it comes to evaluating Tampa’s winning formula for success, you can see the way in which they value this type of player: all-heart, energy, willing to do the blue-collar things and infuse offense where possible.

Their roster construction comes at an expense too. Tampa has just three late round picks in the 2023 draft (a 6th and two 7th’s) – they’ve given up their first’s through 2025 and their second’s through 2024.

In evaluating Colorado’s own deadline moves, the team’s don’t move so differently from one another. Let’s look at what the Avs have given up:

• 2023’s second round pick for Josh Manson (and Drew Helleson)
• 2023’s third round pick for Alexandar Georgiev (and 2022’s third and fifth)
• 2023’s fourth round pick for Kurtis MacDermid.
• 2024’s second round pick for Artturi Lehkonen (and Justin Barron)
• 2024’s third round pick for Darcy Kuemper (and 2022’s first, and Conor Timmins)
• 2024’s fifth round pick for Andrew Cogliano
• 2025’s second round pick for Lars Eller

They’ve held onto their first round picks for every draft through 2026, their third and beyond in 2025 and 2026, and their 2024 fourth, sixth and seventh.

You might even feel more comfortable with Colorado’s cost evaluation by comparison. The other part of the equation of course is the retention of the farm:

Favorite Avs deadline moves –

1. Kept all future #1 draft picks
2. Kept Oskar Olausson
3. Kept Sean Behrens
4. Kept Jean-Luc Foudy
5. Kept Sampo Ranta
6. Kept Mikhail Maltsev
7. Kept Cal Burke
8. Kept Justus Annunen
9. Kept 4 draft picks each for the next 2 drafts#GoAvsGo

— J.D. Killian (@JDKpirate) March 4, 2023

You could argue that Cal Burke and Mikhail Maltsev are not prospects, but the rest are still solidly in that conversation. Ben Meyers, though not listed there, remains an Av.

With the addition of Gustav Rydahl, Colorado now has depth down the middle in Alex Galchenyuk, Rydahl, Meyers, Burke, and Maltsev once he returns to full health.

Lars Eller is an unknown in terms of how he will fit into Colorado’s equation, but the hope is a third line centerman who can penalty kill and help the Avs depth to come in waves throughout the playoffs yet again.

Winning Bench Management

Behind a Tampa Bay era of continued championship-caliber hockey is head coach Jon Cooper. Cooper has two Stanley Cups and a Calder Cup trophy to his name not unlike Jared Bednar’s Kelly Cup, Calder Cup, and Stanley Cup.

Cooper is currently the longest-tenured coach in the NHL – his background practicing law has helped him to be a fierce advocate for his players and an apt problem solver.

In Tampa’s fourth straight loss to the Buffalo Sabres yesterday, their top stars did not take a shift in the third period.

Tampa lost 5-3 with a goal from the top-six: Brayden Point from Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos and the other two goals coming from Alex Killorn. Even with their goal in the first period, Kucherov, Point, and Stamkos were benched late in the game.

Here’s Jon Cooper’s full response on Kucherov, Point and Stamkos not playing in the third period. pic.twitter.com/F42uCOArxG

— Chris Krenn (@Chris_Krenn) March 4, 2023

“This team has been unbelievable for a decade,” said Cooper. “You take the three Finals. Well, there’s a reason a lot of that’s happened. We have a set of standards here that everybody adheres to, and it’s not pick and choose. It’s everybody. It’s how it was for today. Like I said, those guys are an extremely important part of our team, but for 20 minutes tonight, I thought the other guys could get it done and you know what? They almost did.”

Does that seem familiar? Even in yesterday’s game, a struggling Evan Rodrigues was demoted to the fourth line after a series of quiet games and costly errors managing the puck in Dallas.

Bednar’s teamwide standard for buy-in has been a continued topic of discussion.

“We have to not just be thinking about the standings and making playoffs, but our habits and the way we need to play, the level of accountability we need within our room, and the standard that we have to set in order to win in the playoffs,” he’s said.

Accountability is important. It’s no accident two storied coaches have ingrained it in their teams’ DNA.

Andrew Cogliano’s 1200th game

With a game tonight against Seattle, Andrew Cogliano will dress in his 1199th NHL game. He’ll be on track to play his 1200th on Tuesday when Colorado plays the San Jose Sharks. He will join a list of just 126 other players to ever do it in their career.

“Reaching 1000 was pretty significant,” said Cogliano. “Playing 1000 games in this league is not easy, it’s tough. It means something. At the end of the day, you get to play your game and sport for a living and being able to do that for a long time and make a career out of it has been something special. To be able to do that here is even better.”

At 35-years-old, his career has brought him many places: Edmonton, Anaheim, San Jose, and now Colorado. Even this year with ten goals and seven assists through 58 games, he’s on pace to achieve one of his most productive seasons since 2018.

The leadership he’s brought to this group helped to carry Colorado across the finish line last season. As an experienced penalty killer and reliable depth player, I’m sure the excitement to reach this milestone with this Avalanche group is mutual.