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Jesse’s Observations
Health helps
Last week, I asked Colorado Avalanche Head Coach Jared Bednar about the culture in his team’s locker room, and he spoke about how the strength of leadership and maturity have helped to keep the season on the rails (I’m paraphrasing).
He also mentioned in his answer the fact that the Avalanche have objectively had some of the crummiest injury luck in the NHL this season. It’s not just about the number of man-games that they’ve lost to injuries, but more specifically it’s the players that they’ve been without for long stretches that have really been the biggest blow to this team’s ability to play with any level of consistency.
The theory all season has been… Once the roster is healthy (or at least, healthier), the play will be more consistent, and the wins will follow.
Well wouldn’t you know it, this past week the Avalanche saw Bo Byram, Val Nichushkin, and Josh Manson all made their return to the game-night roster, and their impacts were felt immediately.
I’m not sure everybody understands the level of talent that has been missing from the Avs’ roster this season. Serious key contributors have been missing in globs for months now. Obviously still a lot of hockey left to play, and they can’t just throw it into cruise control now that they’ve got some bodies coming back, but it’s pretty clear that the reinforcements are helping.
Ryan O’Reilly to the Buds
This was one I really thought made sense for the Avs.
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I mentioned it on the podcast last week, with the likely bidding war for O’Reilly that would have broken out had we gotten closer to the deadline, if the Avs truly wanted his services it would have been in their best interest to go out and pursue him early and just make their best offer to see if it’s viable.
Well it’s not confirmed that Toronto Maple Leafs’ GM Kyle Dubas was listening and decided to act on it before Chris MacFarland could.
Big credit to Dubas here, I think this is a serious get for the Leafs. Part of my problem with their roster for years now has been how many of the “same” guy they have. Of course they have multiple players with elite skill and ability, but it just feels like they’re ALL high-skill, speed, north/south players. O’Reilly gives them something different.
A creative player and great playmaker offensively, but also an elite two-way center who can be a nightmare to matchup against. O’Reilly gives them a different dynamic in terms of how they can now matchup against other teams’ top-six.
Not to mention, you’re now looking at Auston Matthews, John Tavares, and Ryan O’Reilly all as potential center options. Not bad depth.
I’m way more bought in on the Leafs now than I ever have been before.
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Stadium Series
Not really a ton to say on this one. I thought it looked like a great event on tv, and I truly did love the uniforms.
I’m really becoming enthralled with the growth of the game and how that is achieved, and I thought it was super cool to see a stadium in North Carolina filled to the brim with hockey fans.
More events like this, I know people think the outdoor games need a breath of fresh air breathed through them, and I agree, but the NHL needs to find a way to build on what those games do well, and I thought this game was a fantastic example of a great place to start.
Much better night if you were a Cane’s fan, but still… a great spectacle.
Meghan’s Observations
Avs starting to find themselves
Jesse touches on the ways in which health has been a huge factor for this year’s Avalanche team. After one of the shortest offseasons in NHL history, the rigor of the playoffs caught up with their bodies in many ways. Even separate from that, other injuries have crept into this year’s group and have brought about challenging stretches for the team when they go without important role players, top six, and top pairing guys like Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar, Josh Manson, and more.
The Avs climbed atop the West and secured their crown during the regular season. This year, the regular season crown has slipped a bit.
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They’ve come out of stretches managing above 0.500 hockey – hovering in and around the third place spot in the Central. They’re even finally staring down the second-in-the division Winnipeg Jets just two points behind them.
During some of the roughest parts, the quality that set last year’s team apart and allowed the Avalanche to separate themselves as champions has not quite emerged.
Last year’s stars could drop dominant games on teams to make a comeback impossible. With pieces going in and out this year due to injury, the star power has been stunted at times.
The other factor has been a lack of flexibility to make in-game adjustments when things don’t go according to plan. With guys out, the Avs have been more limited in their ability to make changes on the fly and have had to play with the hand they’ve been dealt.
Which brings me to this year’s identity, and it’s an important part of their 2023 story.
Reflecting on the Minnesota game, their ability to get the goals they needed in the first two periods despite being analytically ineffective in many ways carried shades of last year’s team. Closing out the third period to keep the Wild at bay was something of a turning point.
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The Avs were already turning things around before the All-Star game break, but the Pittsburgh and first Tampa Bay game left a bitter taste.
In securing a difficult win against the Wild despite the odds, they kept a division foe nipping at their heels and they did it without Cale Makar, Gabriel Landeskog, and Darren Helm. Also notably, while Alexandar Georgiev was in net, Pavel Francouz was not backing him up to break that glass in case of emergency.
It’s been all hands on deck all season, but at times, the Avs have struggled to tread water. With Josh Manson back in the lineup, this is some of the healthiest they’ve looked.
Is this the Avalanche team we’ve been waiting for?
“I do think it’s still part of the identity,” Jared Bednar said. “You have a bunch of guys that have gone through that, and I hear what they’re saying in the locker room and in between periods. We talked in-depth before the Minnesota game about our mindset.
(Last year) really, it started in training camp. We came up with a really good start to the season.
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As we went on, we were winning a lot of games, and we really started to nitpick at the detail in our game. Our accountability within our room of playing the right way and doing the right thing was just skyrocketing. Like, it wasn’t always coach-driven last year.
We’ve discussed this, this year now. We have to not just be thinking about the standings and making playoffs, but our habits and the way we need to play, the level of accountability we need within our room, and the standard that we have to set in order to win in the playoffs.
We’re going to play good teams right out of the gate, round one, if we get there. Just making it doesn’t do us a lot of good if we’re going home two weeks later. Our goal is still to compete for a Stanley Cup. In order to do that, we have to get better in a lot of areas. It starts with their mindset and how we approach it. We talked about that before the Minnesota game, and I loved what we did. Loved it. I thought we competed hard. I think all the guys felt it. I think they recognized it.
It wasn’t a perfect game, It was under tough circumstances, but our mindset was right. Our urgency was right. I believe if they can adopt it that quickly and we can sustain it: ‘you are what you repeatedly do.’ So is it part of our identity? We’ll find out.
“If we can continue to do what we did in Minnesota, I do think it’s a really good possibility that it is a part of our identity.”
Now with their gutsy win over the Edmonton Oilers against even more odds, it really feels like the things are clicking into place.
Depth Contributions
Another key to the the Avs’ success has been offensive contributions from their bottom-six. That stars can only do so much, but some of these close games come down to being just one goal better, and the Avs have relied on depth scoring to supplement their stars.
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In recent games, Denis Malgin has found the back of the net – twice! When he was traded for Dryden Hunt, the expectations were low, but the hope was a little more of a scoring impact. Hunt had one goal in 25 games and Malgin has had two goals and two assists in 16 games.
It might not jump off the page at you, but it’s more than just Malgin. The addition of Matt Nieto has added two goals in nine games. Nieto was Val Nichushkin’s intended recipient in the goal that deflected of Cody Ceci’s skate against Edmonton. He’s an active participant in the creative process.
He’s been another addition to their penalty kill which has looked strong in February (their net PK% is seventh in the league at 88.9% for the month so far).
Beyond that, Logan O’Connor scored his seventh goal of the season to close in on Edmonton’s lead. He’s one away from tying his career high.
Among them, Andrew Cogliano’s goal in the Minnesota game opened the scoring for the Avs and it became incredibly important. It was a goal they would not take for granted.
“Whenever you have guys that can contribute, I think it helps us win games. We have a lot of confidence in the top players here. They’re some of the best players in the world. They’re going to score and trade offense. When we get five goals from other guys, I think it only helps,” Cogliano explained.
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“We’ve been trying to focus on our defensive game. I think that’s something we’ve been really paying attention to over the last 10 games or so. I think it’s worked. As the games go on here and as the season goes on for the playoffs, it’s gonna get tighter and we have to continue to play that way.”
Jonathan Toews won’t be moved
A name that has been high on the trade deadline board is Chicago Blackhawks’ captain Jonathan Toews. The 34-year-old centerman hasn’t played since January 28th and released a statement today that he will need to take some more time away from the game to focus on getting healthy after dealing with lingering symptoms of long COVID-19 and chronic immune response syndrome.
With Ryan O’Reilly off the board, Toews is another name that can be removed from consideration as an option for the Avs second line center. Expect moves to happen a bit more quickly from this point on. The deadline is nearing and the window to place a viable top-six center is closing.
AJ’s Observations
Player trends
Meghan mentioned the depth as starting to round into form and everything is cyclical. I always enjoy watching the trend lines of players during a season because I think they tell an interesting story. Two players who I’ve really noticed heading in opposite directions recently have been Evan Rodrigues and Sam Girard.
Rodrigues has an uneven market as a free agent last summer due in part to the two very different seasons he had in Pittsburgh. His 32 points in 46 games before the All-Star break last year was almost identically mirrored on a per-game basis with his 26 points in 37 games this year heading into the same break.
In the seven games coming out of the break, however, Rodrigues has not registered a single point. That’s his worst stretch as an Av, followed by his first eight games in Colorado when he scored just two goals before turning into a regular contributor.
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With the trade deadline market moving quickly, the struggles of Rodrigues might signal a need for another middle-six forward to help combat the highs and lows they are seeing from their 29-year-old pending UFA.
Girard, on the other hand, has all the contract security in the world as his contract does not expire until the summer of 2027. With his reputation as a two-way defenseman, his glacial start to this year was a pretty serious problem for the Avalanche.
Girard had just five points in the first 25 games of the season, an 82-game pace of 16 points. That’s unacceptable for a player with his puck-moving and skating ability. Starting December 23rd, Girard has 18 points in 24 games, which is an 82-game pace of 61 points. That would be a steal at $5M, but this is a lot more of the type of player we have come to expect. With 23 points now after the Avs’ comeback win over the Oilers, he is just 11 shy of a career-high season with 27 games left to play. It will be fun to see if he can track down a new mark for his career.
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