Steer: Thoughts on Mikhail Grigorenko's move to the top line

This afternoon, Colorado Avalanche Head Coach Patrick Roy lamented his team’s recent lack of firepower during the pre-game media address, specifically citing the large number of 2-1 games that the Avalanche have been involved in as of late.

He didn’t have to tell us; Colorado’s inability to consistently create offense has surely not been lost on either the Avalanche media or online community this season. Many have wondered if it’s time to recall Mikko Rantanen from the San Antonio Rampage, where he’s tallied 36 points in 28 games. Others proposed a trade for Jonathan Drouin, the wayward yet productive Tampa Bay winger who was the Oates to MacKinnon’s Hall when they played for Halifax.

However, the answer to Patrick Roy’s woes may already be on Colorado’s roster.

Roy also announced that he intended to give Mikhail Grigorenko the opportunity to play alongside Matt Duchene and Nathan MacKinnon. Roy said that he liked where Grigorenko’s game is at right now, praising his work ethic and improved ability to protect the puck in particular. Roy says he’s curious to see how Grigorenko will play in more than a couple of games with Duchene and MacKinnon, indicating that he’s willing to give Grigorenko an extended look on the top line.

Is this the right move for Roy, and for the Avalanche? Let’s take a closer look.

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Thankfully, there’s a small amount of historical evidence available to be examined. In the wake of Gabriel Landeskog’s suspension for an illegal hit to the head of Brad Marchand, Grigorenko made a similar move to the top line for 2 full games, and he’s made several brief appearances since then.

In the limited amount of time they’ve played together, the 25-29-9 trio has been one of the Avalanche’s most productive lines. The unit has managed 5 goals in 45 minutes at 5v5 while conceding none, and their 14.03 Rel SCF% outstrips the 92-29-9 line’s 9.83% by a considerable margin. Their Rel CF% tells a similar story; 25-29-9’s 9.10% trails only 14-9-12’s 14.39% amongst lines that have played at least 40 minutes together. Clearly, when Grigorenko is on the ice with Duchene and MacKinnon, the ice is shifted in the Avalanche’s favour relative to what’s going on when the rest of the team is playing.

Grigorenko isn’t just along for the ride either. The 25-29-9 trio is the most effective line that MacKinnon has been a part of, and Grigorenko himself chipped in a goal and two primary assists during the aforementioned two-game stint. Grigorenko’s apparent chemistry with MacKinnon becomes even more important when you look at how MacKinnon’s performed alongside some of his other frequent linemates, such as Alex Tanguay and Jarome Iginla.

The 25-29-9 line has not yet met the 100 minute minimum required to be displayed on this attacker’s lattice, but their results together are impressive nonetheless. Jarome Iginla, vaunted goal-scorer though he is, no longer possess the ability to play at the pace of Duchene and MacKinnon. The same could be said of Alex Tanguay, though his ability to pick out a pass is certainly still an asset. The graph above quite clearly displays the impact of Jarome Iginla on Duchene and MacKinnon; it’s a rapid descent into the foreboding depths of the Corsi Ocean. However, Tanguay and Iginla are MacKinnon’s third and fourth most common linemates this season! Talk about dragging around the proverbial anchor.

Perhaps Grigorenko isn’t the solution, and the Avalanche should continue to explore various trade options, and look into recalling Rantanen from the Rampage. However, Grigorenko has the offensive pedigree, the chemistry with MacKinnon, and he’s certainly put in the work. If the Avalanche are serious about making a push for a wildcard spot, it’s time to give him an extended opportunity in the top 6.

Follow Luke Steer on Twitter: @lukeasteer