Stanley Cup Playoff Gambling Primer: The final four

What a wild first two rounds of the NHL Playoffs. So far, we’ve had half the series (6) go to a Game 7, the President’s Trophy winner lose 4 straight games to be eliminated for the 4th straight year, Andrei Vasilevskiy continues to be unbeatable in elimination games, and that doesn’t even touch on the storylines coming out of the Avalanche – Blues series.

It has been beaten to death in pre-series press conferences, and on television, but the final four teams are only halfway to their mission of winning 16 games and hoisting Lord Stanley’s Cup. Similarly, we are only halfway through our Stanley Cup gambling journey. Plenty of time to hit a few prop bets and turn this thing around.

Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (-125) vs. Edmonton Oilers

The Avalanche head to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2002 by defeating the imaginary Round 2 demon in their heads. The Oilers head to the conference finals for the first time since 2006. To put that in perspective, a newborn during the Avalanche’s last conference final appearance can enjoy a legal beer while watching this series and a newborn from the last Oilers’ last appearance can drive them to the bar. So, it has been a while for both clubs and fanbases.

This series is being billed as MacKinnon vs. McDavid, and if the two best players in Hockey going head-to-head doesn’t get you excited, I can’t help you. However, all the high-end talent in this series does provide some interesting gambling value. Everybody is already tripping over themselves to go bet the overs in this series and Game 1’s over/under was 7. We rarely see a total that high in regular season contests, let alone playoff games. 

Similarly, the first period over is 1.5 (-185) which is about as high as the juice will go prior to the line moving to 2. Safe to say the sportsbooks are expecting lots of bets on goals. I will be looking for situations to bet both the game and first period unders throughout this series but will pass on game one. I like the Avs to win this series without seeing a game 7 and like the reduced odds at -1.5 games.

Series Correct Score

Colorado Avalanche 4-1 +330

Colorado Avalanche 4-2 +380

Let’s look at these two team’s paths so far in the playoffs.

The Avalanche have controlled the pace of play and action in every game they’ve played so far minus game 2 against the Blues. The Oilers took 7 games to beat the Los Angeles Kings in round one and then outscored the Calgary Flames in round 2. Many people felt the Flames were the Avs biggest threat to come out of the western conference. However, that team barely beat Dallas in the first round. These playoffs have reinforced to me how limited the Pacific Division was and how flawed all their teams were this year. I expect the talent of Edmonton can steal a game or two, but I also expect the Avs to continue to play their system and control this series. I also don’t trust Mike Smith or the defense in front of him. I’ll take the Avs to win in 5 and 6 and try to lock in a +230 to +280 profit if it happens.

Top Goal Scorer

Nathan MacKinnon +550

Mikko Rantanen +550

I like playoff Nate with a little something to prove. I’d also like to believe Mikko remembers how to shoot at some point. I expect Jared Bednar to use his second line of Landeskog – Kadri – Lehknoen to match up with McDavid’s line as much as possible, especially on defensive zone faceoffs. If that happens the Avs top line may get a slight lineup advantage throughout the series. I also think these guys are very excited to show the world just how good they are after 4 days of hearing about the McDavid-Draisaitl offensive exploits.

One Conn Smythe Future per Team

Gabriel Landeskog +1600

Nathan MacKinnon is the obvious choice here, but he is +300 and Cale Makar is +400. I can see a scenario where Landeskog gets hot and locks down McDavid this round to get some momentum. At 16-1 it is worth a small flyer.

Mike Smith +7500

I cannot see Edmonton outscoring everyone en route to the cup. So, if the Oilers are going to win it all Mike Smith is going to need to be lights out. The Oilers are tied with the Rangers for the worst odds to win the cup out of the 4 teams left. Doesn’t really make sense to bet McDavid, even though he’s probably the frontrunner at this point, at +500 based on their long odds to win, so let’s go off the board and take Smith.

Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 vs. New York Rangers

What a contrast in series we have between conferences. The Western Conference is about offensive firepower, the Eastern Conference is all about the goaltenders. The Lightning have faced the tougher opponents to get here, outlasting Toronto in seven games and then sweeping the President Trophy-winning Florida Panthers in Round 2. The Rangers have grinded through two seven games series beating the Pittsburgh Penguins and Carolina Hurricanes along the way. Tampa is rested, but could be without Brayden Point for a portion of this series. The Rangers have home-ice advantage and Igor Shesterkin seemed to find the form that made him the odds-on favorite to win the Vezina the last few games of the Carolina series. I’ve just been too impressed with Tampa to pick against them. I think they close this out without too much trouble and hockey fans can rejoice as we finally get the Lightning – Avalanche matchup we’ve been waiting three years to see.

Series Correct Score

Tampa Bay Lightning 4-2 +350

I thought we handicapped this perfectly last round as we had Tampa to win in 5, 6, or 7 games at a what would have been a tidy profit. One problem, Florida decided winning was a regular season activity and got swept. I have a hard time seeing Tampa sweep two series in a row, and they get game 6 at home so let’s take the 4-2 series win at +350 over the series ending in 6 games which is only +200.

Top Goal Scorer

Alex Killorn +1700

Alexis Lafreniere +3500

We are just swinging for the fences here. These teams are very balanced, and I expect the series to be low-scoring. Because of that, we will look down the board for some value. I am just throwing darts with these two bets and if you don’t like these two picks you should use this strategy to pick your own wildcard options.

One Conn Smythe Future per Team

Andrei Vasilevskiy +550

Igor Shesterkin +650

These two goalies are carrying their teams. Whichever one makes it to the Cup Final will have these odds cut in half. I’ll lock these in now and look to add others as a hedge before the finals begin.

First Round Results

Series Bets 6-6 +3.3units

Prop Bets -16.9units