Stanley Cup Playoff Gambling Primer: Series Previews

The regular season has mercifully come to an end and while the picks in this column limped to finish line, much like the Avs, I’d like to believe it was for the same reason – We are both just ready for the playoffs to begin.

Did we win as much as we wanted? No. Were our straight wagers hot garbage the last month? Pretty much.

We did end up finishing the year +9 units on the picks in this column, due to some phenomenal prop bets. I’d also like to believe we learned some lessons together along the way. Let’s take that extra cash, and those lessons, and apply it to some Round one wagers. We are shifting things up a bit and providing our best value bet for each series as well as our favorite prop for each.

Carolina Hurricanes (1st Place Metro) vs Boston Bruins (WC1)

The series that maybe best symbolizes “out with the old, in with the new”. The Hurricanes were one of the most consistent teams all season, and in my opinion did not get anywhere near enough love for how good they were month in and month out. A little bit of a slip up near the end took them out of the running for tops in the East, but a great season either way. 

Boston’s core is just trying to hang on for one or two final kicks at the can. Tons of good veteran players, and they deserve some credit for battling back from a sluggish start to the season. Boston has to make up their mind in net, but even still, I’m not sure this group has enough left in the tank to take down a team as good as Carolina. 

Carolina (-115) vs Boston

Carolina’s goalie health concerns have lowered the odds on this close to a pick’em. Carolina swept the season series with Boston, so I will trust that they have enough in goal, and therefore, take them to win the series at close to even odds.

Favorite Prop – Eastern Conference Champions – Carolina +600

Carolina is on the easier side of the Eastern Conference Bracket. They should get Freddie Andersen back as the playoffs move forward. This is a forward-looking prop but if you like Carolina this is the best value you are going to see. I can easily see them in the conference championship series which would present some interesting hedge opportunities at the 6-1 number.

Toronto Maple Leafs (2nd Place Atlantic) vs Tampa Bay Lightning (3rd Place Atlantic)

For me, this is the must-watch series of the first round. 

What a season for Toronto. Auston Matthews scores 60, and they finish the year with more points than they’ve ever had in their franchise’s history. The offensive talent is undeniable, the Maple Leafs have a great argument for having the most potent offense in the NHL, but there’s one glaring flaw that could undo that completely. Well, not undo it, but really just render it useless. Toronto’s goaltending became a huge problem in the back half of the year. Jack Campbell and Petr Mrazek were a train wreck for most of 2022, and you know they’re feeling the pressure now. I really don’t know how much I trust them in this series. 

The two-time defending champs are looking for a three-peat, and for my money, they are still the team to beat in the Stanley Cup playoffs, regardless of where they are seeded. It was a somewhat pedestrian year for Tampa Bay, but something tells me they aren’t too concerned with regular-season results. Steven Stamkos turned back the clock and broke the 100-point mark for the first time in his career, and Victor Hedman smashed his previous career-high in points, putting up 85. 

I feel for Toronto, a team that desperately needs and wants to get out of the first round, and they pull maybe the best playoff team of the last decade. 

Tampa Bay -1.5 Games (+180) vs Toronto

It’s just more fun if Toronto losses in the first round and their fans lose their minds again. Also, I like getting plus odds with the two-time defending champions, and the most proven playoff goalie around today. Tampa in 6 or fewer and we cash.

Favorite Prop – Head-to-Head Goals in the Series – Brayden Point +185 vs Auston Matthews

Auston Matthews scored 60 goals during the regular season to Brayden Point’s 28. However, the last time we saw Brayden Point in the playoffs he was busy scoring 14 goals, over 23 games, including a streak of 9 games in a row.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8zL0n1dtR8

He also has a career average of .53 goals/game over 67 playoff games compared to Matthew’s .40 goals/game over 32 total contests. If Tampa is going to win, they will most likely need a contribution from Point while simultaneously needing to slow Matthews down. Using that logic and the fact we picked them to win 6 or fewer games, the +185 value is worth a flyer.

Minnesota Wild (2nd Place Central) vs St Louis Blues (3rd Place Central)

This is another one on my must-see list. Two teams built so similarly, that had near-identical seasons. This one is as 50/50 as they come. 

I give full marks to Minnesota, I’ve been waiting for them to collapse in on themselves for two seasons now, and it just hasn’t happened. Kirill Kaprizov berthed new life into the franchise, and they’re trying their hardest to do something with it before salary cap hell comes next season. The only that makes you nervous if you’re the Wild, typically everybody having a career year is not a good sign for long-term, sustainable success. Everything has gone right for Minny this year, and they’re hoping they have some luck left to help them through the postseason. 

A huge back half and a backup goalie seizing the crease is how St Louis ended up here. In my opinion, they’re a little more battle-tested than Minnesota and have more of the “here to take care of business” mindset. The Blues got a little younger, a little more skilled, and a little more fun for the first time in years this season. They have big-time question marks in net but have gotten decent play out of both guys at points this year, but they’re a good enough team to get out of the first round with either netminder. 

St Louis Correct Series Score (4-2) +500 vs. Minnesota

Flip a coin, this series feels like it should be very competitive. I just have a little more faith in the Blues so let’s take them to close it out at home in 6 games.

Favorite Prop(s) – Top Goal Scorer Series – Brandon Saad +1400/Brayden Schenn +1400

For either team to win this series they are going to need some down-the-lineup contributors to step up. Both these guys are capable of getting streaky and having a strong series. I’d split my regular bet across both players and hope for an adjusted 7-1 payday if either can step up.

Edmonton Oilers (2nd Place Pacific) vs Los Angeles Kings (3rd Place Pacific)

In my eyes, this is the most flawed matchup of the first round. 

Both Edmonton and LA benefitted from being in probably the worst division in hockey. Combine that with the absolute meltdown we saw from Vegas, and you get the Oilers and the Kings in round one. 

Look, obviously Edmonton has got some PLAYERS. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl alone should be enough for the Oil to come out of this series, but they will absolutely need Mike Smith to continue playing way over his career average, and those tops guys need to execute. Those two things, and I think they’re in the clear. 

I feel for Los Angeles, I really do. The season started off on such a high note, and they really were a feel-good story. Then the Pacific started to shake out and suddenly they found themselves near the top of the division coming down the stretch. Injuries piled up, and it looked like the clock was going to strike midnight on an exciting season for the Kings, then everyone chasing them completely fell apart. LA kind of backed their way in, and it’ll be a good experience for their young guys, but I think that’s where it ends. 

Edmonton -1.5 games (-115) vs Los Angeles

The Kings feel like the worst team in the playoffs to me. Therefore, I think Edmonton will have a relatively easy time with them. -1.5 games give us a little cushion in case the Kings steal one of the first two games. I just don’t see them pushing this to a Game 7, let alone winning the series.

Favorite Prop – Series Correct Score Edmonton 4-0 +600/Edmonton 4-1 +340

Again, I’d spread the bet across these two outcomes and hope to lock in a positive return based on my feelings above.

BONUS PROP – Head-to-Head Goals in Series – Leon Draisatl -130 vs Connor McDavid (+100)

I don’t have a really strong take on this one. I just found it interesting they had these two teammates matched against one another when the other series had players from opposite teams matched up. Might provide some insight into how Vegas views this series. For this one, let’s take the “underdog Connor McDavid” because it’s fun to say that.

New York Rangers (2nd Place Metropolitan) vs Pittsburgh Penguins (3rd Place Metropolitan)

Same same but different to the Carolina/Boston series. This *could* be another “out with the old, in with the new” series, but something tells me the “old” has one more run in them. 

It was a pleasantly surprising season for the Rangers and their fans. We all thought it would be another year of the kids doing good things and taking more strides to becoming contenders. What we did not expect was Igor Shesterkin looking like in-his-prime Patrick Roy for a full season. New York got a no-doubt Vezina season from Shesterkin, and it was amazing to watch. While great goaltending is never a bad thing, it can create some misleading results. The Rangers are pretty clearly punching above their weight class this season and playoff series are usually where you see those things normalize. 

Two straight years of first-round exits for Sidney Crosby and company, still though, this is a group that knows how to win and has plenty of experience in games and moments like this. Crosby and Malkin are both healthy, and Kris Letang found the fountain of youth this year. They’re outmatched in net, but I think the grizzled vets in Pittsburgh will be able to overcome that to eke out a series win. 

Pittsburgh -110 vs New York Rangers

This is the only true toss-up on the board according to Vegas with both teams being -110. I like Pittsburgh in this one. I can’t get the thought of that first Pittsburgh – Avalanche game out of my head. That game was a very intense, high skilled game, that came down to the last minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7K4ax6BVWDs

At their best, I think Pittsburgh has a higher ceiling. I’ll bet on that over the course of 7 games.

Favorite Prop – Series Correct Score – Pittsburgh 4-2 +425

Even though I like Pittsburgh to win the series, I think the games will be close. I also think Pittsburgh will need to close this one out at home in a tough 6 game series.

BONUS PROP – Head-to-Head Goals in Series – Sidney Crosby -120 vs Mika Zibanejad

I get that he isn’t what he once was but it feels disrespectful to have the Great Sidney Crosby only -120 favorite. Plus ask yourself this, do you really want to watch Crosby go off in a couple games and be holding the other side of this bet? Do the right thing.

Florida Panther (1st Place Eastern Conference) vs Washington Capitals (WC2)

Florida is sick of playing second fiddle to Tampa Bay, and this year really looked ready to finally take over as the best team in Florida. 

Florida was an offensive juggernaut all season, and that was before the added Claude Giroux. Sergei Bobrovsky, at least in spurts, looked like the Bobrovsky of old, and Johnathan Huberdeau had a historic season for the Panthers. They won the President’s trophy and no doubt have the best team in franchise history, there’s every reason to believe they can reach the summit and win it all, but now they have to go out and do it. 

I’m a big fan of this Capitals group up front. So much skill, so hard to play against. Add in the greatest goal-scorer in the history of hockey, and it’s such a fun group to watch. Unfortunately, I just don’t think they have enough to knock off the Panthers. The goaltending has been problematic all season, and once you dig into the depth, you find that, well… they don’t really have any. They’ve won a Cup and the core is in tact, so you can’t count them out, but it would be a huge upset for Washington to come out of this series. 

Florida -2.5 games (+150) vs Washington

I don’t feel like Washington has much of a chance in this series. Florida can beat you in too many ways and has the much better goaltender. I think both Florida, and Colorado (more on that series below) understand the need to end their early round matchups quickly, having learned from their playoff disappointments in the previous few years.

Favorite Prop – Top Goal Scorer Series – Jonathan Huberdeau +1300

Huberdeau was tied for second in the NHL with 115 points, including 30 goals. I get there are bigger names in this series, plus the greatest goal scorer ever in Alex Ovechkin but 13-1 feels too high for someone as talented as him. I also like the strategy with the top goal scorer prop bet to find a handful of these +1000 to +2000 guys between the various series. If you hit one, you will be up money overall, if you hit two the next round at the DNVR bar is on you.

Colorado Avalanche (1st Place – Western Conference) vs Nashville Predators (WC2)

Time is a flat circle. 

In 2018 the Colorado Avalanche snuck into the final wild card spot in the west and drew the conference-winning Nashville Predators in the first round. What made it even more of an uphill battle was the fact that Colorado was heading into the series with their backup goaltender playing the role of starter. Fast forward to 2022 and the roles are almost identically reversed.  Right down to Nashville having injury problems in net. 

The Avs had an all-time tear for the franchise, setting multiple high-water marks for wins and points, and also had a number of individuals break franchise marks as well. Consistency was the theme of the season, they found a way to win on so many nights in situations that would have crushed past Avalanche teams. I personally think they’ve had a roster capable of winning the Cup the last two years, but this year’s team seems more mentally mature, and better equipped for a deep run. Everything is in place for them to do so, but they have to put it all together in a way this group has never done in the past. 

Nashville got off to a white-hot start, and for certain guys, that continued all year. Matt Duchene had a 43-goal season, Filip Forsberg eclipsed 40 goals, and Roman Josi came just four points shy of a 100-point year. Other than those guys though, the rest of the team tailed off pretty significantly. The Preds backed their way into the postseason, finishing the regular season by blowing a 4-0 lead to the Arizona Coyotes in regulation, and that’s how they ended up in the last Wild Card spot. I think Nashville is going to bring a ton of energy, and they’re going to leave it all out there, but I’m just not sure they’ve got enough. The Predators will be hoping that some of their ridiculous puck luck and inflated shooting percentages will hold up, which I suppose is possible, but even still, this is going to be a tough one for Nashville. I don’t expect them to go quietly though.  

Colorado -2.5 games (-110) vs Nashville

As I’ve said multiple times about this Avs team, I am just not that worried about their play over the last couple of weeks. They have checked every box for me throughout this season and they appeared locked in and ready at practice yesterday. They are better than Nashville. I might have more pause if the Predators were coming in better shape. After a quick start to the year, and an especially strong December, they’ve basically been a .500 team since the new year. Add to that there are some health concerns with Jussi Saros and I just don’t see the Avs having many issues in this series. Let’s take them -2.5 games, hope they handle their business, and we can all rest up for the next round.

Favorite Prop(s) –

If you agree with me the Avs roll, let’s try to attack from a few different angles…

Top Goal Scorer Series – Nazem Kadri +950, Andre Burakovsky +2000

I love a good redemption story so give me Naz. I added Burakovsky because 20-1 feels like great odds for a streaky player like him who has the potential advantage of playing down the lineup and getting more favorable talent matchups.

Head-to-Head Goals in Series – Mikko Rantanen -140

I expect a big playoff from Mikko and will be looking at his game-by-game scoring totals for value on the overs if they dip below -150.

Series Correct Score – Colorado 4-1 +220

Series Total Games – 5 Games +200

The gentlemen’s sweep feels like the likeliest outcome to this series. You can get better odds if you bet the correct score, but the 5-game total feels like a nice emotional hedge in case the sky is falling by next Wednesday.

Calgary Flames (1st Place Pacific) vs Dallas Stars (WC1)

This write-up is going to be short and sweet, similarly to how I expect this series to go. 

Calgary has had a great, borderline unbelievable season. Unbelievable in the sense that as a team, they had only 75 man-games lost due to injuries, and their top line played at least one shift together in all 82 games. That was the first time that has happened since the NHL started shift tracking back in the early 2000s. Everything has gone right, and their top guys have been stellar. Not to mention, they have goaltending this year! Jacob Markstrom has been great for them, leading the league in shutouts.

I said it multiple times on the DNVR Avalanche Podcast over the last couple of weeks, but I swear it looked like the Stars didn’t want to get into the playoffs. They stumbled and tumbled all the way down the stretch, right into the first Wild Card spot somehow. The Stars have one real line up front that is a scoring threat, and one elite D-man who is going to be asked to do it all in this series. 

Dallas +2.5 games (-175) vs. Calgary

I believe Calgary wins this series. However, we’ve seen them be a heavy favorite in the playoffs before and struggle.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rku6u0urGuI

I just feel like Dallas can steal a game on the road, and split the first two at home. If it goes 6 games, we cash.

Favorite Prop – Head to Head Goals – Joe Pavelski -115 vs Andrew Mangiapane

Pavelski lead the Stars in scoring and had 27 goals on the season. This is probably a large reason I cannot see them winning this series. However, for this specific bet I’m a bit surprised he isn’t a larger favorite. Who else is scoring for the Stars? If we are going 6 games, I am going to also need this prop to cash.

Regular Season Final Record

Straight Wagers 10 -18 -1 (-9.72units)

Overall Record 17-25-1 (+9.01units)