The Snow Science of the Colorado Avalanche

For a moment, let’s talk about an avalanche.

No, not THE Avalanche, although I’ll get back there eventually. A snowy, ice-coming-down-a-mountain, actual avalanche.

Not all snow is the same.  Warm, wet storms or windy storms produce very dense, compactable snow, while colder storms produce light, fluffy powder that has problems sticking together.  Snow can also thaw and refreeze after a day in the sun, resulting in a crystal pattern that doesn’t bond well to new snowflakes.

All of these conditions (as well as many others) produce different layers in the snowpack that may all look similar upon first glance, but vary greatly in stability.  One wrong push or a little too much weight on top will cause the weaker layers to collapse, destabilizing the denser layers above and bringing the whole structure sliding down the mountain.

In a lot of ways, the local hockey team resembles their snowy namesake.   The trouble they’re having putting together wins this year isn’t because of some cataclysmic lack of talent or disastrous mistakes made during the game.  Just like their real life counterpart, their instability is far more complex than that.

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Surprisingly, there are actually a large number of dense, strong layers currently comprising the team.  If you look at goals scored per game, the Avs currently sit 10th in the league.  They have two scorers (Matt Duchene and Nathan MacKinnon) in the top 30, and have a decent amount of depth scoring from their second through fourth lines.  The defense contributes as well, also sitting at 10th in points per game from blueliners.  This is all despite spending arguably the least amount of time in the scoring zone of any NHL team.

The goaltending is another fairly strong layer.  Despite Varlamov’s early season struggles, the team still sports a GAA and save percentage only slightly below league norms.  By the stats, Reto Berra remains one of the best (if not the best) backup in the entire league, and strong performances in recent games makes it likely that Semyon Varlamov‘s game is regressing back up to his standard levels.  Maybe it’s bad luck, adjustment to new systems, or a poorly timed cold spell, but unlike in the past, it’s difficult to say that the sorry state of Avalanche goaltending is due to underwhelming talent somewhere at the position.

In some ways, the same can be said of the defense.  While it’s still a work in progress, the strides made this year have been quietly remarkable.  Unlike last year where they ranked 28th in shots against (SA/60), scoring chances against (SCA/60), and high danger scoring chances (HSCA/60), the team has jumped to 21st, 24th, and 14th respectively.

While there is no doubt they still bleed Corsi, they’ve managed to give up two fewer shots at goal per game and have done a much better job at limiting the danger of those chances.  With fewer minutes from Stuart and Guenin, improved play from Nick Holden, and the additions of Francois Beauchemin and Brandon Gormley, this is the most talented defensive corps the team has sported in quite some time.  The mess that is Colorado’s blueline was never going to turn around in one season, but it’s now at least headed in a promising direction.

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Due to shifting weather conditions, snow can only pack so uniformly. Heat from the ground or from the sun can also alter the character of individual snowflakes within the snowy structure over time.  That means in any snowpack, there are always going to be weaker layers that develop.  No snow will ever be 100% stable because absolutely ideal conditions simply don’t exist.

The same can be said of salary cap era NHL teams.  Gone are the days of the highly paid, jam-packed All-Star clubs of the late ’90s and early ’00s that brought Colorado two Stanley Cups.  Today, Cup winners have faults, weaknesses, and a number of cost effective pluggers filling out their bottom lines and pairings.  Even the best teams in the league can look at their roster and identify a couple frustrating or borderline NHL players they’d love to upgrade.

While it’s nice to think about what the Avs would look like with a better set of wingers or a stronger blueline, there simply isn’t that much room for a jump in talent.  Yes, certain upgrades are required, but this isn’t a case where all the questionable players are going to be swapped out for good ones.  Even though faces will change, the Avs will always need to employ players like Holden, McLeod, Skille, and Wagner within their regular lineup for simple cap reasons.

The same goes for the positions.  The Avs have room for growth at offense, defense, and goaltending, but when raises are factored in, there just isn’t room to improve everything.  The team does need to fix their second pairing, but there isn’t a player in the world that is going to come in and magically fix the whole team.  Based on their prospects and who they can acquire through other means, the this Avalanche blueline is never going to be one of the best in the league.  Their depth scoring isn’t going to destroy the NHL.  Their backup goaltender is probably never going to be consistently better than what Berra is playing right now.

There will always be weak layers.

However, the exact same can be said of every other team in the league, even those contending.  On paper, there frankly isn’t much separating the Avs from the best in regards to pure talent.  Yes, they do need to beef up their top four on defense, but once that’s done, their overall snowpack density will be at or above average.  Add in elite level performances from players like MacKinnon, Duchene, and Varlamov, and hypothetically, it shouldn’t be hard to take that next step.

Easy, right?

Unfortunately, numbers suggest that there may be other destabilizing factors at play than just the lack of talent on defense.

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Snow stability isn’t only determined by how well the layers stick together vertically;  it’s also a result of how well each layer bonds with itself.  Avalanches begin at microfractures, places where external or internal stresses have caused the snowflakes to pull apart from their same-layer neighbors.  When an avalanche is triggered, these mirco imperfections are where the upper layers separate into slabs and start to slide over the weaker layers down the mountain.

Despite all the Avalanches’ issues, their goal differential sits at -3, which is 18th in the league.  While it’s not outstanding, it’s a far cry from the 23rd spot in which they find themselves based on points.  While part of the problem might be simple bad luck, much of this team’s issues are the result of small mistakes that end up in the back of their net.

Any time a badly timed pinch by a defenseman creates an odd-man rush the other way, that’s a fracture.  An offensive zone penalty creates another.  Losing one-on-one battles along the boards, making a pass that’s difficult to handle, miscommunication on who is covering whom, or letting a soft shot slip by are all small imperfections that weaken the strength of the team’s snow.

Not all fractures result in avalanches – all teams make small mistakes during the course of games, and most of those infractions don’t end up as goals against.  However, when mistake after mistake after mistake is made, it creates an opportunity for the opposition to capitalize on the instability.  The more fractures, the smaller external force it requires to send the whole mass sliding.

Unfortunately, each Avalanche game is a mass of fractures.  Even when they win, their hockey is very sloppy.  Micro mistakes due mostly to lack of concentration, not lack of talent, are what’s dooming this team.  Yes, the defense is a weak sublayer, but if the snow above stayed more united and pristine, the team would fall to pieces far less and be much higher in the standings than they are right now.

Also, just like an avalanche, when things start to go wrong for the Avs, it snowballs into more goals against.  The team struggles to stop the negative momentum and regain balance after they give up a bad goal.  Many times this season, an otherwise strong game will be undone by a short span of time where everything just falls apart.  The first game of the year against Minnesota is a great example, although there have been other similar meltdowns scattered throughout this campaign.

Again, this isn’t necessarily a talent issue.  This team lacks the mental fortitude to keep confidence in themselves when things start to slide.  In 2013-14, this wasn’t an issue, but ever since adversity started to catch up with the club last season, they’ve struggled to stay even keel.  The unwavering swagger just isn’t there anymore, so when the chain reaction starts, their confidence gives way.  From there, all anyone can do is watch helplessly as the entire mass roars down the slope as the goals against pile up.

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In short, the moral to this snowy story is that even if the defense is fixed, the team will never be perfect.  There will always be some weak layer threatening to send the whole mass sliding.  By cleaning up the small mistakes and figuring out how to prevent full-blown meltdowns, the club can improve their standings right now, this season, without changing the roster.  The Avalanche doesn’t need to be an avalanche, but it’s up to each individual player to make that happen.