Six fun trades the Colorado Avalanche could make this summer

Over the course of the next two weeks, the NHL will experience the majority of its moving and shaking. The buyout of Oliver-Ekman Larsson by the Vancouver Canucks was the unofficial start to the NHL’s silly season.

While we’ll have plenty of content about who the Avalanche should/could/will be targeting in their upcoming summer of change, I wanted to start by having a little bit of fun first.

These aren’t trade proposals with the idea that these are in the works and are based on nothing more than fun speculation so don’t take these as anything more than just that: fun.

Because the Avs have such a wide swath of possibilities open to them this summer, I wanted to try to find a couple of different trade partners to make work. Let’s make a little chaos.

Colorado trades Sam Girard and 27th overall to Vancouver for Anthony Beauvillier and 11th overall

Why it works: The Canucks are awful defensively and get the steady Girard to help stabilize their second pairing. While the first half of last season was nothing short of a mess, Girard turned it around and had a strong finish to the season and followed it up by being arguably Colorado’s most consistent (not best, most consistent) defenseman against Seattle. Girard won’t be a star there, but he’ll provide much-needed reliability and the Canucks stay in the first round.

From Colorado’s side, they get Beauvillier, whose 33 games in Vancouver looked like a player unleashed from the harsh confines of the extremely defense-first environment he spent most of his Islanders career playing in. The 20 points he scored for the Canucks provide hope he could be Colorado’s missing wing in its top six. He’s only signed for one year, so the Avs aren’t making a big commitment here if it doesn’t go well and they get the 11th overall pick to try to get an impact prospect who can help in a couple of years.

Why it doesn’t work: Vancouver’s best defenseman is Quinn Hughes and he does all of the stuff Girard does, but at a higher level. It’s not that Girard isn’t any good, it’s that his skills might be seen as redundant next to Hughes. A second pairing of Girard and Filip Hronek might be too easy to play against and if Girard paired with the chaos giraffe himself, Tyler Myers, it might just be running back the calamity that was Girard-Erik Johnson last season. Giving up the 11th pick is antithetical to retooling.

For the Avs, Beauvillier is an expensive “maybe” as a top-six wing. They don’t have enough cap space to just eat that cost if he ends up being more of a third-line player than capable of replicating the success he had in Vancouver at the end of the year when he shot 14.3% for the Canucks. Even if Beauvillier hits, he’s potentially too expensive to keep as an unrestricted free agent next summer, especially if Landeskog is healthy enough to return. None of this addresses Colorado’s biggest need at 2C. The 11th pick is nice, but how soon can that guy help?

Colorado trades Sam Girard and Ben Meyers to Florida for Sam Bennett and Matt Kiersted

Why it works: Florida’s defense is facing the possibility of major turnover the next few years as only Aaron Ekblad is signed beyond one year. That group experienced quite a bit more success when it leaned into its puck-moving ability with Ekblad, Brandon Montour, and Gustav Forsling. Girard would slide right into that group and fit in while bringing cost certainty with a contract that runs for four more years at a respectable rate of $5M.

Bennett’s hard-nosed style always shines brightest in the postseason but they will have big money to hand out to Sam Reinhart and Carter Verhaeghe in the coming years while Anton Lundell can take Bennett’s job. Meyers gives them a promising young forward who is very cheap and fits their style nicely.

Bennett would be a wonderful fit in Colorado in terms of his style and the hope would be that he could bump his production up ever so slightly to that of a real 2C. Signed for two years, the Avs would have a little runway to make it work before having to revisit the conversation. Kiersted has never found a consistent job in Florida but could slide onto Colorado’s third pairing immediately next to Josh Manson.

Why it doesn’t work: Florida loves the tenacity and, frankly, crazy that Bennett brings when the playoffs begin. He fits next to Matt Tkachuk as the, uh, emotional firestarters in postseason play. Like with the Canucks and Hughes/Hronek, Girard just might be too similar stylistically to what the Panthers already have on hand.

From the Avs, if Bennett’s scoring doesn’t increase, they didn’t really improve the 2C position all that much, did they? He’s never been much of a defensive stopper (he’s okay defensively, but certainly nothing to write home about) so if the offense doesn’t take a leap, Bennett isn’t really an upgrade on J.T. Compher and they created a hole on defense that will be tough to fill. There’s a reason Kiersted hasn’t found a job with the Panthers yet; maybe he just isn’t good enough to be in the NHL?

Colorado trades Devon Toews, Alex Newhook, Oskar Olausson, Sean Behrens, and 1st-round picks in 2023 and 2024 to Edmonton for Leon Draisaitl

Why it works: Edmonton continues to find ways to balance its offense and defense and adding Devon Toews, a legitimate top-pairing defenseman on an under-value contract for one more year, would be a huge boon. Adding all the other pieces would be nice swings at quality young players on cheap contracts and would give them picks to either use at the draft or via other trades. Adding Toews to Darnell Nurse, Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm, and Brett Kulak gives them a really intriguing defense with a lot of variety in size and skill.

For the Avs, it’s obvious. They go all-in on the next two years with Draisaitl making just $8.5M. They lose Toews but hope Bowen Byram can permanently take the job alongside Cale Makar. They know they’ll lose Draisaitl at the end of his contract but it answers the 2C question with an absolute grand slam for the next two seasons.

Why it doesn’t work: Lots of ways to answer this, but the easiest one is that it just isn’t enough for the outrageously talented and uber-productive Draisaitl. It’s basically impossible to value Draisaitl away from the environment he’s been in. To give up a player very likely headed to the Hall of Fame someday, getting a 29-year-old defenseman in the final year of his contract as the main piece is a pretty tough sell.

If the way to get the most out of him is to play him alongside MacKinnon, it defeats the entire purpose (even though a Draisaitl-MacKinnon-Rantanen line would be hilarious to watch at work) of acquiring him.

From Colorado’s side, there’s just no way to know if Byram can replace Toews right now and giving away a top-pairing defenseman is extremely risky, age and contract situation be damned. This is also basically burning the concept of a farm system to the ground. It doesn’t get more all-in than this. If they don’t get a Cup out of it, it’s a colossal misstep.

Colorado trades Bowen Byram to Tampa Bay for Anthony Cirelli

Why it works: At the heart of Tampa Bay’s success during it’s three consecutive trips to the Stanley Cup Final was a skilled, physical defense that was versatile against playstyles and skilled enough to drive offense when needed. The cap-fueled deal of Ryan McDonagh to Nashville last season exposed that defense to a lack of quality depth and their inability to hold leads cost them their first-round series against Toronto this year. Adding a young defender with high-end talent who could still be relatively cheap for the next few years gives the Lightning that flexibility again. The loss of Cirelli hurts but Ross Colton could slide into his job.

For the Avs, giving up Byram obviously hurts. He’s a player who showed flashes of fulfilling his enormous promise during the team’s Stanley Cup run and could be Makar’s long-term partner. In this deal, however, the Avs cash out on Byram after three injury-plagued seasons limited him to just 91 of 220 possible regular-season games. Instead of rolling the dice he stays healthy, they grab Cirelli, a 25-year-old center with Selke potential (he already has two top-five finishes) that is signed for the next eight seasons at $6.25M.

Why it doesn’t work: Tampa Bay’s best answers to replacing Cirelli are either Colton or moving Steven Stamkos back to center at age 33. The two-way excellence of Cirelli helps protect the weaker defense the Lightning have and at just 25 and with a cap set to rise significantly in the coming years, there’s a very good chance Cirelli ends up one of the league’s best bargain contracts for many years. The Lightning could be even more cap-strapped in coming years with new deals for Hedman and Stamkos and having an incredible value contract such as Cirelli’s is even more important for the Lightning than other clubs.

If you’re the Avs, this doesn’t work because you’re giving up the player with the most potential. While Byram’s injury issues are a concern, the concussion issues do appear to be in his past (for now) and it was a fluke lower-body injury that caused him to miss so much time last year. He hasn’t put all the pieces together yet but we’ve seen the look of a top-pairing defenseman who isn’t afraid of the bright lights of the postseason. He’s an alpha who could haunt the Avs if they move on from him for a cost-efficient but much lower-ceiling player. Cirelli has injury issues of his own and only a career-high of 44 points, so this would be a major swing on him staying healthy and taking a leap in production.

Colorado trades Sam Girard and Pavel Francouz to Buffalo for Casey Mittelstadt, Peyton Krebs, and Eric Comrie

Why it works: Buffalo got a big statistical breakout from 2017’s 8th overall pick in Mittelstadt after years of waiting for him to come around. There are some underlying numbers that might suggest it will be hard for him to repeat that and they cash in on his success by landing the top-four defenseman in Girard that they could really use. Buffalo’s defense has plenty of size with Owen Power, Rasmus Dahlin and Mattias Samuelsson but Girard gives them another steady puck-moving player who can reliably eat minutes against quality competition.

Buffalo has what seems an endless well of quality young forwards to pick from who could replace both Mittelstadt and Krebs immediately. They could be cashing in on Mittelstadt after a 59-point season he may struggle to repeat. Adding Francouz is the kind of stable, reliable goaltender who can help the transition of stud netminder Devon Levi into the starting job but Francouz likely won’t play so well that it delays Levi’s ascent. He’s the perfect backup for a guy trying to prove himself. Just ask Philipp Grubauer and Alexandar Georgiev.

Colorado gets Mittelstadt to be their 2C. He’s cheap this year at just $2.5M and they save another $200K on the notable downgrade from Francouz to Comrie but they also add Krebs, whom the team strongly considered selecting when it took Alex Newhook in 2019. They now can pair them together and see if it’s a rising tide raises all boats sort of situation. It also gives the Avs young talent to let develop in the NHL as Mittelstadt (24), Krebs (22), Newhook (22), Meyers (24), and Logan O’Connor (26) are all guys that could be around for several seasons.

Why it doesn’t work: Buffalo has been waiting for Mittelstadt to break out and he finally does and they move him in a year they want to seriously contend for the playoffs? Krebs might not have great production (26 points in 74 games) or fancy stats but he’s going through the growing pains of learning to be a role player in the NHL. While they have an embarrassment of riches to choose from (including four first-round picks not currently in the NHL), restarting the growth process by dealing these two kids with two different kids may not be ideal for a team wanting to take the leap this season.

Also, Francouz simply may not be a big enough swing. If they are serious about that step, they have the kind of assets to go after Connor Hellebuyck or John Gibson if they wanted to. As we’re seeing in Florida, sometimes even the best-laid plan of turning over the net to the kid prodigy just doesn’t work the way everyone envisions. If Levi isn’t ready for the full-time job, Francouz may not be good enough to get the Sabres to the postseason if he has to be the man.

For the Avs, you’re talking about two players in Mittelstadt and Krebs who would fly in the face of acquiring players with strong analytics in hopes that they build off the seasons they just had and both take steps forward. “Hope” isn’t usually the plan for a team with serious Stanley Cup aspirations, so taking this kind of youth-based leap may be foolish. The downgrade from Francouz to Comrie could be very real (Comrie has only had one quality season in the NHL, two years ago with the Jets) and if Georgiev doesn’t repeat his excellent performance, goaltending could suddenly be a problem in Colorado.

Colorado trades Devon Toews, Alex Newhook, and 1st-round picks in 2023 and 2024 to Columbus for 3rd overall, Adam Boqvist, and Eric Robinson

Why it works: Columbus goes from having Zach Werenski and a bunch of question marks (and top prospect David Jiricek) to having a top four on defense of Werenski, Damon Severson, Ivan Provorov, and Toews. For an organization that seems to think this is go-time, that’s a pretty formidable group even before you get to the youth movement they have coming on the back end. Newhook joins a group of young forwards all trying to figure out who they are in the NHL and could even get a crack at the center spot between Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine. They also get 1st round picks to either trade or use as they shift into turbo time.

For Colorado, they help Columbus balance some of the money as the Blue Jackets are surprisingly close to the cap after the addition of Toews and Newhook. Boqvist goes back to Colorado as an offensive defenseman who has struggled to stay healthy and hasn’t shown a mature defensive game yet, but at least he’ll fit into Colorado’s up-tempo style. Robinson will be a perfect addition to the fourth line in Denver as a good forechecker with good size. At 3rd overall, the Avs would love for this pick to be Fantilli, but have no issues taking Matvei Michkov instead. They’ll wait the three years for Michkov to come across the pond and turn into a game-breaker, a la Kirill Kaprizov, and breathe new life into what they hope has become a dynasty by that point.

Why it doesn’t work: Columbus has one major hole in its organization and that’s a number 1 center. Cole Sillinger has been a major letdown at the NHL level and Kent Johnson is more suited to wing. Boone Jenner isn’t a 1C and Jack Roslovic floundered when given the chance last year. It’s not like adding Newhook would suddenly change that. The Blue Jackets have a chance to add Leo Carlsson at 3 and wait a year or two for him to hit the NHL. If Fantilli gets here, moving this pick even for a player even as good as Devon Toews would be outrageously dumb. It might even be if the pick is Michkov, Carlsson, or even Will Smith.

For the Avs, they’re fine with all of this and they are really hoping that Fantilli gets to them. He’s the most NHL-ready of the group that would be considered here and this would be a huge home-run swing for them to have to turn around and still have a hole at 2C. Even if they take Carlsson, he’s not ready to be a 2C in the NHL this upcoming season and if they’re moving on from Toews, they don’t have time to mess around waiting for the growing pains. Waiting for Michkov will be an eternity for whoever selects him, which makes way more sense for a team not CURRENTLY in its Stanley Cup window. Smith actually fits Colorado’s style wonderfully, but the potential for a two-year wait on him to even turn pro is a very hard sell given the Avs’ urgency to get back on top. I said it would be fun, though!