Should we be worried about the Colorado State Rams missing the NCAA Tournament?

The pressure is on. 

Colorado State’s 77-74 loss to Nevada was a tough blow on Tuesday night. From being down 11 at halftime to tying the game with a little over 2 seconds to go, just when it seemed like the Rams were in store for an overtime victory, Jarod Lucas ripped out the hearts of the home crowd with a sensational half-court shot to win it in regulation. 

“Basketball can be unforgiving sometimes,” Niko Medved said postgame. “Tonight was a gut punch. There’s really no other way around it.”

The loss is CSU’s third consecutive and fourth over the last five games. After coming into 2024 as the No. 13 team in the country, the Rams have been a .500 team in the Mountain West. And after hoping to contend for a regular season conference championship, CSU is now unfortunately in a position where even its conference tournament chances have been impacted. Now that the Rams are all but guaranteed to be playing on Day 1 in Las Vegas, the path to a trophy just became extremely challenging. 

While the loss to the Wolf Pack didn’t kill CSU metric wise — the Rams are still being projected as a 7-seed in the NCAA Tournament on average — there is definitely a lot of pressure to put together a couple of wins down the stretch.

If CSU were to drop one of these final two regular season games or fall in the opening round of the MW Tournament, after not having to worry much about the bubble all year, Selection Sunday could suddenly be very uncomfortable. 

“We’ve had a few gut punches here. Really, three in a row, to be honest,” Medved said. “This one was a little more poignant. It stings. But what you’ve got to do is move on and get ready for the next one.” 

As far as what the problem has been for the Rams, every game has had different challenges, but the most persistent struggle has been shot making. Defensively they have been pretty solid and it shows in the numbers. CSU has not allowed an opponent to score 80 points in league play and has ranked comfortably in the top 40 in adjusted defensive efficiency for the last month. That’s why even when the offense has struggled, the Rams have still largely been competitive and had a chance to win. 

The reason it has not translated to more victories is that CSU’s shooting has been wildly inconsistent. At times it’s been flat out bad. And it’s been an issue now for much longer than I ever would have anticipated for a roster with so many veterans. 

In the month of February the Rams shot just 29.8 percent from 3-point range. For comparison they shot 39.3 percent from deep in November and 38.2 percent in December. Even in January the Rams shot 33.2 percent from beyond the arc, so while the dip did begin, the last month has been especially rough compared to how the majority of the season has gone. 

What’s tough to explain is that it’s not like the offense has changed. They are still getting a lot of quality looks. For whatever reason, those looks have just not fallen with the same consistency. The open threes for Patrick Cartier at the top of the key, the shots from the corner from the wings, they aren’t going down right now. 

Maybe in March we will see the numbers even out a little bit. If Cartier, Nique Clifford, etc, can start hitting shots at closer to the levels we saw at the beginning of the season, that alone could be good for about a 12-point boost for the Rams each game. If not those guys, though, somebody needs to step up and help Isaiah Stevens stretch the floor. 

CSU is winning the battle in the paint most nights — even with a smaller lineup than the majority of teams they encounter. But if the Rams cannot make their opponents pay when they clog up driving lanes and camp around the paint, eventually it becomes tougher to work the ball down low with the same effectiveness. Defenders stop coming out to the perimeter and the entire spacing changes. 

I don’t believe that this group just stopped being able to hit shots. That doesn’t seem logical. But man, they are running out of time to get their groove back.

“We’ve lost three in a row. It’s easy to just say, well God, they’re in a funk,” Medved said. “This is a bottom line business, right? You’re here to win. But I think that it would be a mistake to say that everything is broken. I don’t see that.”

Medved continued, explaining that the Rams need to build on the things they are doing well, like attacking the paint. However, if they are going to get back to their winning ways, CSU needs to find an extra gear quickly. 

“This is a good group and they’re together. It’s okay to be frustrated. We’re all a little bit down and frustrated, but we’ll pick ourselves up and get ready for the Border War. Senior Day will be emotional, but this group will rally.”

While it’s easy to compare this current team to the 2014-15 team that won 27 games and still missed the NCAA Tournament, it’s important to note that the resumes are not all that similar. That team nine years ago only beat one high major team and ranked 128th in strength of schedule. The 2023-24 Rams currently rank 42nd in SOS.

If anything, a better comparison would be the 2011-12 team that went 20-12, but ranked 60th in SOS and pulled out three ranked wins at Moby.

All of this is to say that the Rams would be an NCAA Tournament team if the field were selected today. What’s going to be key is avoiding any more blemishes against Q3 or Q4 competition. The loss in Laramie was one thing when the Rams still had a lot of slack with their remaining schedule. There is no more room for error at this point. The next three are must-win games for the Green & Gold.