Should the Nuggets trade for Anthony Davis? It's complicated

ATTENTION: This is an audio story, meaning that BSN Denver subscribers can listen to it if they don’t have time to stop and read it in its entirety. We would love to know what you think about it in the comments. Enjoy!

An intrepid trade, years of playoff blunders, one superstar after another from Tracy McGrady to Air Canada himself, Vince Carter, bolting Toronto in succession. It was all worth it in the end.

The Raptors did the improbable and what many pundits thought was impossible Thursday. They won the NBA Championship.

All of it — the proud Raptors fans banging their drums while thousands danced in downtown Toronto, or strangers of every race and gender embracing like they’ve been life-long confidants— wouldn’t have been possible without Kawhi Leonard. And Leonard’s arrival in Toronto wouldn’t have happened if not for Masai Ujiri.

It’s Ujiri’s deal-making that elevated the Raptors to the pinnacle of the sport. His mid-season acquisition of Marc Gasol paid dividends in the playoffs, but his July decision to move on from franchise icon and cornerstone DeMar DeRozan, who had spent his first nine seasons with Toronto, and bring in Leonard was the deal of all deals. It’s the type of move that involves guts and a calculated approach. If Leonard recaptured his pre-injury form with the Raptors they’d be championship contenders. But it also came with some risk. Leonard arrived in Toronto offering no guarantee that he’d stick with the Raptors past this season.

For Ujiri, it didn’t matter. The opportunity to snatch up a player of Leonard’s caliber was too good to pass up.

There’s another multiple-time All-Star who’s not worthy of the best player in the world status that Leonard can currently enjoy after his Finals’ performance, but is still recognized as a top-10 force, and like Leonard was is currently available. It’s Anthony Davis, who’s been on the trade block for the last five months ever since he asked out of New Orleans in January.

Should the Nuggets take a Raptors-like swipe at the Western Conference with Davis, or should Denver stand pat? Like Ujiri’s decision last summer, it’s not an easy call.

Did the Raptors just build the non-mega-market model?

We may look back at Toronto’s 2019 Championship run as the most effective way for a team not located in one of the league’s top markets to build a title contender.

The Raptors constructed their roster from within for years, mining the draft for their role players like Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Jakob Poeltl who was traded for Leonard, and Delon Wright (and Jonas Valanciunas), who helped Toronto net Gasol. Toronto then took low-risk, high-reward gambles in the trade market and free agency to bolster their starting lineup. The Raptors’ analytics team believed that Kyle Lowry was undervalued during his previous stop in Houston and that his numbers indicated that he was really a top-10 point guard, per ESPN’s Zach Lowe. So Toronto stole him from the Rockets. Around Lowry, DeRozan, Ibaka, who the Raptors acquired from the Magic in 2017, and their homegrown millennials, Toronto built a strong and self-motivated culture. And when the time was right, Ujiri pounced.

With LeBron out of the conference, there was an opening and Leonard was the driving force that could push Toronto into the Finals. Gasol gave Toronto more punch late in the season and Danny Green, who came to Toronto with Leonard, provided stout defense and 3-point shooting while the Finals MVP did the heavy lifting.

The lesson here…and if Toronto really did just construct a replicable model for teams that struggle with acquiring the top-tier stars…is that when a player like Leonard is available, you push your chips into the center of the table and don’t look back. Opportunities to acquire talents like Leonard or Davis don’t come around every day and even if they’ll only be in your uniform for a season, franchises on the brink of contention, like the Raptors were and the Nuggets are, with a logical path to a Finals appearance have to take that chance if the opportunity presents itself.

With Davis, the Nuggets would be instant contenders and likely the favorites in the West next season as long as Denver didn’t have to completely pillage its roster in the process. The Spurs received DeMar DeRozan, Poeltl and a future protected first for Leonard. Kristaps Porzingis was dealt for Dennis Smith Jr., DeAndre Jordan, Wesley Matthews and two future firsts. The Pacers swapped Paul George for the Thunder’s Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis, a trade which looks a lot more balanced now than it did when agreed upon. When stars get dealt in today’s NBA, it’s rarely for as much as the imaginary trade-machine induced packages that are floated throughout the NBA Twittersphere says they will. Still, Davis would command more than those fellow All-Stars.

Jokic and Davis would make for the best frontcourt in the league and few could contend with their passing, IQ, scoring, playmaking and basketball savvy. Davis would get two or three dunks or layups a game just from Jokic lobs. Defensively they’d be a strong pairing too. But around their big two, the Nuggets’ depth would take a hit. Whichever role players remain from the trade, which would surely include one of Jamal Murray or Gary Harris, plus whoever else Pelicans’ president of basketball ops David Griffin is fond of would be thrust into an increased role. Griffin wants picks too, which Denver doesn’t have an excess of. Those selections won’t be very lucrative either with the Nuggets firmly in the projected playoff picture moving forward, but Denver does have Michael Porter Jr., its 2018 first-round selection who sat out all of last season recovering from back surgery.

In a West that looks up for grabs with Golden State’s injuries, Denver’s path with Davis could look a lot like Toronto’s did with Leonard.

A Davis trade would be a stark change in Denver’s organizational creed

The Nuggets have preached continuity and patience throughout their come-up and Denver has had its chances to acquire All-Star talent before. Looking at the hauls that the 76ers got for Jimmy Butler, or the Celtics and Raptors got for Kyrie Irving and Leonard, it’s not difficult to imagine the Nuggets piecing together a trade package that would have netted Denver an All-Star point guard or small forward. Still, the Nuggets didn’t feel that the time was right, that player was the correct roster addition, or didn’t want to relinquish one of their young cornerstones.

So why would the Nuggets change course now, especially after Denver just enjoyed its first playoff berth with this contingent?

The Nuggets are not in the same position that the Raptors were when Toronto made the trade for Leonard. The Raptors were coming off their fifth-straight playoff appearance and second-straight loss in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Lowry and DeRozan tag-team had run its course. Ujiri couldn’t even stand to watch it in another playoff series. The Raptors knew what they had in their core and where that current group could take them. The Nuggets don’t know the answer to either of those two questions. DeRozan was 28 when Ujiri made the deal to acquire Leonard. Lowry was 32. Murray will begin next season at 22-years-old, Jokic at 24 and Harris at 25.

Nikola Jokic, Murray, and Harris just went through the trials and tribulations of their first playoff appearance. They struggled at times against the scrappy Spurs, won in San Antonio for the first time in seven years and Denver watched Jokic shift his game into a higher gear come playoff time after much had been made about how the Serbian’s skill-set would translate to the playoffs and push the Nuggets into the second round. Against the Trail Blazers, the Nuggets battled for seven games. Murray tallied 34 points in both Games 3 and 4 and Harris flashed the All-Defensive chops that he wasn’t able to show consistently throughout an injury-plagued 2018-19 season.

You certainly get the feeling that there’s another rung that this current group in Denver can climb with how they’re assembled. The chemistry in the Nuggets’ locker room is stronger than ever and there’s a level of trust from the players to the coaching staff and front office that’s fostered open and honest communication channels from the top down. The Nuggets’ core three haven’t reached their peaks yet, and probably won’t for a few more seasons. Denver’s bench is deep and showed last season that it can withstand injury upon injury to its rotation too.

If the Nuggets run it back next season their roster could look nearly identical to this season’s 54-win team and with the Warriors likely dropping from contention, at least next year, Denver could open the regular season as the favorites to take the West even if it returns largely the same group.

Other factors the Nuggets would need to consider…

• Davis is heading to Los Angeles in 2020 no matter who strikes a deal with the Pelicans, at least that’s what his agent Rich Paul has tried to make patently clear over the last few months. Paul’s latest threat to teams not named the Lakers who may trade for Davis came just this week. “They can trade for him, but it’ll be for one year,” Paul told SI’s S.L. Price in regards to the Celtics. “I mean: If the Celtics traded for Anthony Davis, we would go there and we would abide by our contractual [obligations] and we would go into free agency in 2020. I’ve stated that to them. But in the event that he decides to walk away and you give away assets? Don’t blame Rich Paul.” Davis having one foot out the door all season would be taxing.
• The summer for Denver to back up the Brink’s truck for its class of 2016 is here. The Nuggets’ three 2016 first-round picks, Jamal Murray, Malik Beasley, and Juancho Hernangomez, are all up for contract extensions this offseason and those deals can be agreed up until the final day before the regular season. If no agreement is reached, those players will become restricted free agents after 2019-20. It could be a good time to consolidate a bit. Or maybe, the Nuggets decide they’re a tax team for the first time in the Tim Connelly era.

As the Davis sweepstakes enter the home stretch with the draft under a week away, Denver could assemble an enticing trade package that New Orleans would have to consider. But the Nuggets have to decide if Davis is their Kawhi Leonard rocket to the Finals, or if their current group can do the same while also providing staying power atop the conference.