Seattle's expansion doesn't mean much for the Avalanche... yet

Just one year after watching the expansion Vegas Golden Knights take the NHL by storm en route to the most unexpected Stanley Cup Final appearance in NHL history, the league is running it back with a fresh new market. As has been expected for quite a while now, the league unanimously approved expansion to 32 teams on Tuesday morning and awarded the newest franchise to the city of Seattle.

The announcement marks a return of the NHL to Seattle 101 years after the Seattle Metropolitans became the first American team to win the Stanley Cup in 1917. The team eventually folded in 1924 and the league has tried returning in the past only for it to fall through. The new expansion team, currently without a name, is scheduled to begin play in the 2021-2022 season as a member of the Pacific Division. To accommodate the newest team, the Arizona Coyotes will be moving into the Central Division, finally balancing the NHL’s conferences and giving each division eight teams.

With the details finalized, the attention naturally turns towards the expansion draft and the impact that will have on the league. Commissioner Gary Bettman had previously stated the league would use the same format it used in the Vegas expansion draft and the league re-affirmed that position today.

Let’s run down what the basic rules actually are for the expansion draft. Seattle must select 14 forwards, nine defensemen, and three goaltenders. With 30 teams participating (Vegas is exempt), that gives them four additional selections to shore up whatever position they want.

The 30 teams getting raided have two options available to them: Protect eight skaters and one goaltender or protect seven forwards, three defensemen, and one goaltender. The last time around, the Avalanche chose the second route, ultimately losing goaltender Calvin Pickard to Vegas.

In a key note, first and second-year pros are exempt from the expansion draft. This ended up being a big deal for the Avalanche in the last round of expansion as the majority of their desirable players were exempt from the entire process.

What does this mean for the Avalanche in 2021?

They currently only have two players under contract through that time – Nathan MacKinnon and Erik Johnson. That’s to say, it’s way too early for people to be trying to mock up expansion draft lists for this club. They simply have too many decisions to make before then to make a realistic projection of what the Avalanche should do.

There are some reasonable leaps of faith to make, like Mikko Rantanen, Gabe Landeskog, Alexander Kerfoot, J.T. Compher, Tyson Jost, and Sam Girard all being under contract come time for the draft. Because Johnson has a no-movement clause in his contract, he is slated to be automatically protected unless the team asks him to waive the clause in favor of protecting other players. Johnson will only have two years remaining on his seven-year deal by the time that summer rolls around.

Colorado will have to decide what they want to do with Tyson Barrie, Nikita Zadorov, and their entire goaltending situation before then.

One of the big questions is how this effects Colorado’s youngsters. Because of his age, if Martin Kaut stays in the AHL the entire year this season, he will be exempt from the process even if he makes the Avalanche full-time next year. The same is not true of Conor Timmins. Should he return and play this year for the Eagles (and it does look like it’s trending in that direction for now), Timmins would have to be protected. If Timmins remains out for the entire year, there’s a possibility the Avalanche can make a case he should be exempt but that area is murkier territory.

In the case of Cale Makar, as long as he doesn’t accrue a full pro season (40 games played in the NHL), he would be free to sign with the Avalanche after his season with UMass is over and play for Colorado this year without the threat of worrying about expansion draft eligibility.

While it’s still too early to make a realistic roster projection, it looks pretty clear the Avalanche are going to be forced to either just lose a good player outright or they will have to go the route of trading assets to protect certain guys.

Two summers of free agency and prospect development will have an enormous impact on what Colorado is going to do in the summer of 2021. It will be fun to watch how things unfold, especially because we now have hard confirmation of when it’s happening, but again, it’s simply too early to make a realistic projection.

Morning Skate Update

Lost in the shuffle of the league getting a new team and the Central Division adding a new rival is the Avalanche preparing to play the Pittsburgh Penguins for the second time in a week tonight. The lineup will have some alterations to it as Tyson Barrie is set to return after missing the last week with a lower-body injury. Mark Alt will be the healthy scratch to accommodate for Barrie’s return.

Vladislav Kamenev is expected to come back into the lineup, replacing Sven Andrighetto on the fourth line next to Kerfoot and Gabriel Bourque.

Coming off his first shutout of the year, Semyon Varlamov will slide back into the net as the starter tonight.