Saturday fun, looking at the college football lines we like

Here at BSN ATS, we’re interested in giving you real tips, using stats and proven metrics and methods that have worked throughout the years. But reliable metrics take time for data to gather and have an ample enough sample size to be relied upon. So while we wait for that time to come, we wanted to have some fun and look at some intriguing spreads in this Saturday’s college football slate.

Be forewarned, we’re having fun here, it’s hard to say anything with certainty two weeks into the season with mostly out-of-conference games. Given there’s a lack of firepower in college football’s Week 2 matchups, these line should significantly amp up the entertainment of these head to heads.

The Week’s big games

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Arkansas’s @ TCU – TCU by 6.5

Interestingly enough in the afternoon Friday, this line has moved. TCU was favored by 7.5, but action on the Hogs has shifted this line to 6.5. 7-1/2 was definitely the most appealing number, while 6.5 might be a bit more honest.

That said, there’s really no reason than to favor TCU beyond your conventional home dog line of -3. Sure, the Razorbacks are coming off of a nail-biter win (21-20) against a good Louisiana Tech program while TCU’s offense looked good with new quarterback Kenny Hill (aka Kenny Trill), but they were in a battle into the last quarter against South Dakota State(!!).

Not sure why the Horned Frogs are getting all this respect, I’d take the Razorbacks here.

Virginia Tech v. Tennessee (Neutral Venue) – Tennessee by 11

This game will be played on the race track in Bristol and is expected to be the most highly attended college football game in history. The game will be a spectacle, that’s for sure.

But let’s talk about this line; Tennessee has had lots of hype as an up-and-coming program, but they almost lost to Appalachian State last week. 11 points, in a neutral site, seems like a lot.

Tennessee has lots more talent, especially in the backfield, but it’s impossible to be confident in this team, who played in a ton of close games last year as well, with mixed results.

Tech has little to lose here in their first year with a new coach and they’re far from absent of talent, with some real good receiving targets and an always solid defense. The upset seems doubtful, but it’s been more likely the Vols don’t cover as favorites than they do in the Butch Jones era, take Tech.

Texas Tech @ Arizona State – ASU by 1

This will be a really good game. Obviously, the line reflects the close matchup, while it makes sense to still favor the Sun Devils just slightly at home, I like Tech. That offense is just too explosive and with no experience at quarterback prior to last week on the Sun Devils, their offense is very suspect.

Take Tech before this line changes and enjoy the game Saturday, easy as that.

BYU @ Utah – Utah by 3.5

Could BYU be in line for taking back-to-back Pac-12 scalps after a win against Arizona last week? I say watch this game because it should be one of the best of the week. The Cougars won a low scoring game Week 1, but they have the firepower for more.

Utah has an outstanding defense but their offense is riddled with question marks. Three points I could accept, but 3.5 is too much. On principle alone, I like BYU here.

Washington State @ Boise State – Boise by 10.5

It’s easy to see why this line is where it is. WSU just got upset by Eastern Washington and Boise is hard to beat on their blue field, it makes sense, but it does feel a bit high. Boise hasn’t been the same dominant program since a coaching change the last few years and this line feels like a combined overreaction to the Wazoo’s loss and an overrating of Boise based on name recognition.

Washington State might not be the dark horse Pac-12 north division contender that some were prognosticating in the preseason, but they’re a team that’s capable of winning any game they’re in, just like they are of losing. Plus, that offense is hard to stop and Boise better be ready for a track meet. I say take the away team and the points, sit back and enjoy it.

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The other interesting lines

Iowa State @ Iowa – Iowa by 15

Iowa should be favored, there’s no doubt about it, but don’t ever expected a blowout in a rivalry game, no matter how much the odds might be stacked to one side. Plus, the Cyclones seem to always be good for at least one upset every year.

In last season’s matchup, Iowa won by 14 away with a really good team, I kind of like the lowly Cyclones.

North Carolina @ Illinois – UNC by 7

I get that there’s a new coach in Champagne and a promising quarterback, Lovie Smith and Wes Lunt respectively, but seven isn’t enough. Last year in North Carolina the Fighting Illini lost by 34 points, just spotting them a touchdown seems quite generous.

The Tar Heels are also coming off a tough loss to Georgia in the opener and will want to get back on track as a legitimate ACC contender, I think I like the visitors by 14, forget 7.

California @ San Diego State – SDSU by 7

This might be the best game of the entire week as far as competitiveness and talent. Let’s be clear, I really like the Aztecs and think they could be a sleeper as a national non-power-five dandy, but we still need to see what they’re made of.

Cal isn’t a great team, but they have a great offense and a quarterback that can sling the rock around. Gun to my head, I’d still pick the Aztecs, but this line is really intriguing on either side.

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