Saturday Fun Lines, College Football's Week 3

After offering up all sorts of metrics to take on the early week lines in the NFL, it’s time for another installment of our college football lines.

Last week, we ended up 4-3 with our picks. As we already have a few weeks of data, we’re toying with a few different models for college football as well. NFL metrics don’t translate directly to College Football, primarily for a big difference in the consistency of quality opponents that can severely skew stats and make them unreliable. There are some ways in which we can apply figures to NCAA games like we would with the pros.

One such way is taking over-under win totals and using them to educate our opinions on where the line should be. That said, there aren’t many places that offer win totals for college football, one brave soul who’s tackled the numbers is veteran bookmaker Chris Andrews.

Just like with other metrics, including NetYPP, we need to take into account the quality of opponent that produces these numbers. Thus, we’ll only use win totals and only use them with Power-5 teams going against one another.

I typically prefer to stay away from betting the big NCAA games of the week, particularly those with top-25 opponents, especially in out-of-conference bouts. There’s just too much focus and there are better lines out there from my experience. With all that said, you can’t have a college football betting column without talking about the big games. So here we go.

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The Big Games 

Louisville covering 1.5

If you look at our chart below, Louisville was given a win total of 9 by Andrews, only a half win less than their opponent this week, the Florida State Seminoles. Add the fact that the Cardinals are playing at home and have been on fire in the first two games, with quarterback Lamar Jackson putting on a show and it’s almost surprising they’re not favorites.

Louisville has yet to be challenged by a team with Florida State’s defensive talent, but the Noles are very young. FSU has also lost one of their biggest defensive stars in safety, Darwin James, who’s out with an injury. Everything looks primed for a Louisville upset at home.

Oklahoma covering 2

Simple betting principle: with two teams who seem evenly matched up, you  favor the home team. In a bout of playoff hopefuls in Norman, Oklahoma, the hometown Sooners are two-point underdogs.

This line makes sense when you look at the rankings and the records for Ohio State and Oklahoma, but that’s the point here; this early in the season, that’s meaningless. Even if Oklahoma lost a tough game to a great Houston team and has thus dipped in the rankings doesn’t mean they’re an inferior team.

The Sooners have a large number of players returning from their playoff squad in 2015. Making them underdogs at home, against anyone, seems a like an overreaction to the early loss. Take the Sooners and thank me later.

Other big game notes:

Michigan State @ Notre Dame

The Spartans being 7.5 point underdogs might surprise some people, but our model says the line is spot on. Andrew projections have MSU at only 7.5 wins this year to the Irish’s 9.5. While the Irish have already lost this year. On top of that you should never underestimate a Mark Dantonio team as an underdog, just stay away, please.

USC @ Stanford

The Trojans were disastrous against Alabama Week 1 while Stanford won unconvincingly against Kansas State and hasn’t played since. It’s hard to know how good either team is. The line makes sense, it’s probably a bit skewed towards Stanford but is another stay away.

Alabama @ Mississippi 

This game has the biggest divergence from our numbers, with our suggested line giving this game as even and the actual spread at 11 for Alabama.

Given it’s in Oxford, Mississippi and that the Rebels have been the one team to regularly upset the Tide as of late, that line is undoubtedly high. But I wouldn’t mess with this one. either. that Alabama defense is too good, it’s unfair. The offense eventually gets a couple long touchdowns and a game can turn into a blowout in a flash, you just can’t risk it with these two, even at 11-points I feel uncomfortable.

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The Others

Appalachian State covering 3.5

It rarely works out this way, but Appalachian State seemed poised to upset Tennessee week one and at home, against the Miami Hurricanes they’re ready to do so again.  Miami is the obvious favorite, but they’ve dealt with suspensions on the defense and shaky offensive play. The Canes have run the ball well and little else. Appalachian St can run the ball as well and has a tough defense. At home, I like the underdogs to pull through with the big name scalp.

Western Michigan covering 3

A strategy that’s worked out for me betting on college football is hitting the same team several times until I see a market adjustment. Last week, Illinois was only a 7-point underdog to North Carolina and got whooped. This week at home, they’re just a three-point underdog, against a Western Michigan offense with lots of talent. The one away team I like this week (another adjustment from my mistakes week 2) is a small name with big talent.

Auburn & Nebraska by 3.5 each, beating ranked teams at home

Another mistake I used to make in my early days betting on college football, was falling for the bait of a ranked team as an underdog against an unranked opponent. We have two perfect examples right here, both Nebraska and Auburn are favored at home against “ranked” teams. I would have pounced on Oregon and Texas A&M once upon a time. Nowadays, I realize that two weeks in, being ranked in the bottom 15 means little to nothing. The difference between these four teams is minimal, both games should be evenly matched and there’s already been action on the home teams to move the lines to 3.5. I like the home teams for these should be “upsets” and covers.

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