Saturday Fun: Counting on the upsets to continue 

 

We had a rough week in our last edition of Saturday Fun, or a not so fun Saturday if you will. Our conference YPP went 9-11-2 in differentials over 7, while our picks were 2-4 last week. Our picks did not do well but we did salvage things with our big game hunting picks by going 2-1. That puts us 35-35-2 on the year ready to pounce for the final push.

Bad weeks happen and as we’re still playing around with our metrics this was bound to occur sooner or later. Though we’ve had losing weeks before, since applying the numbers the metrics hadn’t gone below .500 in our suggested picks. Particularly with a large group of games to pick from, it’s key to choose correctly.

One thing the numbers have been very accurate with is in predicting the spreads of the “big games” so with the big game hunting we’re going off the data. As always it’s all done for the joy of predicting the crazy and beautiful world of college football an exercise in futility these days as things have become as unpredictable as ever.

Also, one quick note, I’m not giving you the chart with the suggested spreads for conference YPP for each pick. With so many variables just one suggested spread is too simplistic, which is why we explain it all down here.

Buckle up as we have eight picks in all.

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Saturday Fun picks of the week

Kansas +24 vs Texas

On face value this is risky business as the Jayhawks football team doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. A 1-9 record never does. They’ve also been through a murderers row playing four ranked teams in the last five (Oklahoma State wasn’t ranked at the time but they are now.) Kansas has also played much better at home, losing their three Big 12 home games by an average of just over 7 points to better opposition than the struggling Longhorns.

This pick is all about Texas. While they’ve played much better with the emergence of phenom running back D’Onta Foreman this isn’t a reliable team. They’ve only won one road game all year. Giving them 24 points against anyone is quite generous. No matter how you split it, our metrics don’t have the Longhorns favored by more than 14.

Have no fear and give us the Jayhawks.

Missouri +16 at Tennessee

Betting against Tennessee has been fairly enjoyable this year. Outside of an impressive 21 point win against Virginia Tech early in the year, the Vols have been in exclusively close games. They have a good record and are back in the rankings after a rough three-game losing streak, but this team just doesn’t seem disciplined enough to put teams away. Also, the defense has been ravaged by injuries this season and that’s really affected their ability to put teams away.

In a shootout scenario Tennessee always risks making it a close game and Mizzou has the offense to turn this into a back-and-forth affair.

Missouri is actually averaging on 2 points less per game than the Volunteers and conceding only 2 points more. Our conference YPP suggested spread reflects that, as even at home, Tennessee is only a 4 point favorite in our suggested spread. That sounds much more in line with how Vols games have gone this year than an easy 16 point blowout.

Give us the Tigers to cover on the road as our one road pick of the week.

Pittsburgh -7.5 vs Duke

I enjoy doing this, taking the rare favorite that the numbers like in the more inflated collegiate spreads. Pittsburgh isn’t favored by much over the actual line at 10 in our most favorable metric for them – which is conference YPP plus our strength of schedule metric. So you’ve been warned ahead of time here.

These two ACC foes are both coming off of huge upset W’s; the Blue Devils on in-state rivals UNC and Pittsburgh against Clemson. So a let down could be possible from either side but the home team certainly has more talent and is favored by the metrics as well.

Give us the Panthers who are slowly building a nice foundation under coach Pat Narduzzi.

Mississippi State -1.5 vs Arkansas

Another game that has the numbers going with the favorite for once. Arkansas is actually a team that YPP stats haven’t been high on at all and betting against them worked out nicely last week vs LSU.

While the Bulldogs are a team that’s crept up in the YPP stats and called their upset to Texas A&M a few weeks back. Their offense is explosive with quarterback Nick Fitzgerald and receiver Fred Ross. The Razorbacks defense hasn’t been as good as in years past and that duo should be able to exploit that weakness. This should be another high-scoring affair.

We like the Bulldogs offensive talent and that they’re at home here. Our conference YPP has them as -12 point favorites.

California +10.5 vs Stanford

First off we must never underestimate the power of a rivalry game at the end of the year. Especially when the home team is the underdog anything can happen. Look Cal hasn’t been good as of late losing their last three – all to ranked teams mind you – and their defense is beyond suspect allowing 45 a game good for 128th in the nation meaning dead last.

While Stanford is in the exact opposite situation as they’ve won their last three and seem to have got their offense clicking. Christian McCaffrey’s return to full form has also been crucial for them.

But that’s all a bit skewed as Stanford has had an easy three-game stretch. The Bears will have a tough test against a good Stanford defense but let’s not forget that Cal has already beaten Utah at home this year. A similar team to the Cardinal who are built around defense and running the ball.

10.5 for a low scoring Stanford team on the road seems like an overreaction to recent play. This offense has still only averaged 23 points per game on the season good for 110th in the country.

Conference YPP has this spread as even and the Cardinal at only -2 when we account for strength of schedule. When you add in the rivalry game we really like the Bears to cover and keep this one close.

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Big Game Hunting

Oklahoma State +4.5 at TCU 

Here’s a very interesting game. Because when you first look at this there’s no way the No. 11 ranked Cowboys should be underdogs to the 5-and-4 Horned Frogs, regardless of where this is played.

Amazingly enough, we looked at all our metrics and they were all in agreement which tells us the numbers work and are in sink with the actual spread. So in part, we’ve picked this game just to pat ourselves on the back because no matter how you split it TCU is favored in this one for our numbers. In two of our suggested spreads by 4.5 and 5 points so right on the money (our third has they as 5.5 point favorites).

So why pick Oky State you may ask? well, the numbers aren’t telling us to pick one team or the other here, they’re actually advising we stay away. But as is a tradition in our Saturday Fun column, we don’t shy away from challenges and we also like taking highly ranked teams when they’re underdogs.

Oklahoma State has an explosive offense that’s 14th in the country scoring 41  points per game. Their attack is led by Mason Rudolph, a superb quarterback who’s got the arm and IQ to beat the 72nd TCU scoring defense.

This is going to be a track meet and the Cowboys have the better talent on offense, are more consistent, and productive. Obviously, anything can happen in college football and a win away against a well coached and talented TCU outfit won’t be easy. But we’ll take our chances and the 4.5 points and see what happens.

Colorado -4.5 vs Washington State 

Raise your hand if you thought this would have been a matchup of two ranked teams both in the driver’s seat to win their respective divisions in the preseason. These two teams have come out of nowhere to make this into one of the better and most important games of the week in the greater national college football picture.

Beyond the storylines, it also presents some outstanding matchups on the field, especially the Buffs passing defense against the potent Cougars offense led by quarterback Luke Falk. Colorado plays at home and we’ve learned that generally in a close affair it’s best to lean with the stronger defensive unit. This certainly is bound to be a close game as our pure conference YPP has the Buffs as 3 point favorites. What’s interesting is when you account for overall YPP+strength of schedule (SOS) the Buffs are -9.5 in our suggested spread.

The X-factor is the Colorado offense, which hasn’t always lit up the scoreboard but has veterans across the board and a great lead back in Phillip Lindsay along with a talented receiving core to boot.

This won’t be an easy game but we’ll take the Buffs to cover as they’re 9-1 against the spread on the year and have yet to let us down when we’ve taken them.

Oklahoma -3.5 at West Virginia

This is another game of the week that will have the eyes of the entire CFB universe as it’ll have a huge affect on the Big 12 conference’s winner. Morgantown WV is quickly becoming the hardest venue to play in the conference and not just because it’s the furthest to travel to.

That’ll certainly be a factor here and conference YPP has the Sooners at -2. Our conference YPP+SOS has them at -4 so again the numbers are suggesting we stay away and right in line with the actual spread.

Oklahoma is obviously the more talented outfit with a top 10 ranked scoring offense (averaging 44 a game) with balance – 10th in passing yards and 26th in rushing in the country – with blue-chips all over.

While West Virginia beats you with an aggressive scheme and has also been extremely balanced and productive offensively, the big story for the Mountaineers is they’ve beaten people with their defense, allowing only 20 per game, 19th in the country. Again, this should be a great matchup.

Ultimately though the Sooners have just upped their play lately and are more battle tested in these types of high-pressure situations. We’re gambling on Oklahoma’s elite talent shining through in this one for a big road win.