Saturday Fun, College Football’s Week 4 lines

Almost as a parallel occurrence, right as we gain more data and sustainable information to make more accurate evaluations on NFL spreads, my college picks go down the drain. That’s right, it’s time to eat some crow as my picks last week went 2-and-4 with Nebraska not covering the 3.5 points by a half-point, taking us below .500.

These things happen and while I tried using a few of our NFL metrics and applying them to the College game, that didn’t work much either. That’s why this column’s called Saturday fun, while I’ve had my successes and runs with college football these kids are very unreliable. So for all the excitement and unpredictability that makes college football great and incredibly entertaining, it can also be an absolute mess to bet on.

That said, we’re going to keep having fun and breaking down college football’s weekly slate. Here’s the games I like in college football’s fourth week.

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My Picks of the week

Stanford -3 at UCLA

This should be a good game and a real test for both teams. Stanford has looked just fine with their new quarterback, while the Bruins are looking as erratic as always under Jim Mora. I like the Cardinals to cover away in a late game on the west coast. This will be marketed as Josh Rosen against Christian McCaffrey, but Stanford is just a much more complete team. Safe money is on Stanford all the way here.

Florida +6.5 at Tennessee

I’m still not sure why Tennessee is being favored at all at this point. Sure the Vols have remained undefeated, but I remain unconvinced. Florida continues to have an extremely talented defense with NFL talent on all three levels and Jim McElwain’s scheme is working just enough on offense. The Vols might pull off the win at home, but 6.5 is too much for this team especially against a team with Florida’s talent, give me the Gators.

Oklahoma State +9 at Baylor

We continue big game hunting here. Baylor is at home and they’re undefeated, so you can see why with their explosive offense they’d be getting 9 points. However, this is their first true big test without Art Briles behind the wheel, I don’t know about you, but I’m unsure we’ll see the same Bears we have the last few years.

The Cowboys aren’t  a bad team at all, the upset to Central Michigan will greatly skew perception, but these things happen in college football. The OSU offense can keep up with the Bears as they have one of the most dynamic quarterback and receiver duos in the country in Mason Rudolph and James Washington. They’re also one of the few teams in the Big 12 who can somewhat run the ball and play defense. This line seems far too generous, give me Oklahoma State.

Texas A&M -6 vs Arkansas

I’ve flipped my opinion of the Aggies completely in this early season stretch. After picking against them in  Auburn last week, they won 29-16 thoroughly impressing. Now Arkansas’ hogs aren’t going to be as easy to beat, but this team is rolling.

The Aggies have that Texas talent that shows up on film. They’ve got a phenomenal pass rushing duo with  Myles Garrett who’s one of the best players in the country, plus some sneaky talent in their back seven. More importantly, new quarterback Trevor Knight has looked outstanding and he’s surrounded by lots of talent on offense.

Arkansas is ranked 17th in the country but they’ve only beat a TCU team that’s suspect while  almost losing to Louisiana Tech week one. The Aggies, on the other hand, have beat Auburn and UCLA. They seem on a roll and with their explosive talent should cover the 6 points at home. The Aggies are three-and-0 against the spread this season, you gotta love that.

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