Running down Colorado's free agent situation

While the NHL Draft is next week and we’ve been focusing a lot of our energy there, just two days after the completion of the draft is the opening of free agency.

It’s already been a rumor-filled offseason as teams face the unexpected flat salary cap and their desire to improve to chase next year’s Stanley Cup.

For all teams, though, it begins with internal evaluation. Which of Colorado’s pending free agents, restricted and unrestricted, should be brought back? What kind of decisions need to be made?

UFAs

Matt Nieto, 27

This one hurts a little. Nieto was a waiver claim in the middle of their terrible 48-point season back in 2016-17. Following three straight 20-point seasons and being used as one of Colorado’s top penalty killers, Nieto should find a market.

It’s not hard to find a comparable. Teammate Matt Calvert had a nearly identical profile when he hit the open market two summers ago and got a three-year deal from the Avs. Given the market this time around, Nieto may struggle to find that level of commitment but either way, he should be on the outs from the Avalanche.

It’s not that Nieto can’t help Colorado or isn’t a valuable player, it’s just simply time to move on as Tyson Jost slowly began filling that role last year and showed real promise as a PK option. Beyond Jost, Martin Kaut showed he’s NHL-ready and Shane Bowers will predictably make a strong training camp push if not outright win a job. All three of those players will be cheaper than whatever Nieto signs more and it’s time for the Avs to move on to a more cost-efficient approach to their bottom six.

When they weren’t spending anywhere close to the cap, they could afford to pour a little extra money into depth players. That’s no longer the case with the top portion of the roster’s bill beginning to come due. Time to focus on ELCs and cheap post-ELCs.

Vladislav Namestnikov, 27

Namestnikov was a nice addition for the Avs, especially at the cost of a fourth-round selection. He helped keep the offense afloat when injuries beset the Avs during that time period in the regular season and he had an okay postseason.

His postseason would better be remembered for his two-goal performance in Game 7 against Dallas had the Avs been able to hold onto the lead but instead Joel Kiviranta became the hero and Namestnikov gets forgotten about until he hits the open market.

Like with Nieto, Namestnikov was a fine fit and a good player for the Avs, they’ve just simply run out of room for overpaying depth players, especially with the youth on the way to help replenish the NHL roster with cheaper talent.

While Namestnikov might be in the middle class of free agents whose market get particularly squeezed thanks to the flat salary cap, it would seem the only reasonable avenue he ends up back in Denver is if he’s fine settling for a one-year deal for very little money. That doesn’t seem realistic so, like Nieto, I think it’s fair to assume we see Namestnikov in another uniform next season.

Colin Wilson, 30

Wilson played nine games for the Avs this season before disappearing with a hip injury that never quite got right. He came back to the Avs on a one-year deal when other irons in last year’s free agency fire didn’t pan out.

It was a fine gamble but if there’s no room for Nieto or Namestnikov, it’s even harder to imagine Wilson comes back to Colorado. In fact, Wilson getting a guaranteed job anywhere in the NHL seems like a stretch at this point.

Just spit-balling here, but I think he could be a decent pick-up for a team on a PTO if he’s completely healthy. By the start of next season, it will have been a full calendar year since he appeared in an NHL game. If he can’t be healthy in that timeline, you can’t help but wonder if his career is in jeopardy.

Kevin Connauton, 30

The Avs wanted to love Connauton. They wanted him to take Mark Barberio’s job and run with it. They wanted to give him another deal to be a depth defenseman for them.

Unfortunately for everyone involved, Connauton’s play never lived up to even his previous play in Arizona and it looks like the two sides are set to move on.

Michael Hutchinson, 30/Antoine Bibeau, 26

Both goalies brought in to be the third goaltender at the time, each won games for the NHL club, including Hutchinson going 2-1 in the playoffs as he came so close to leading the Avs to three straight wins against the Stars in the second round.

Both are free agents and neither are likely to return to Colorado.

The frustration here is the asset management involved. Colorado gave up Nicolas Meloche, a player they gave zero games to in the NHL after developing him for years and easily could’ve replicated the poor performance they got from Kevin Connauton. Instead, they simply moved on without nary a thought and it was certainly bad luck that Bibeau suffered a season-ending injury shortly after being acquired.

To get Hutchinson at the deadline, they gave up Calle Rosen, who looked okay in his handful of appearances with the Avalanche. Both players could have easily filled the role now vacated with Barberio in Switzerland and Connauton on the outs. Instead, they’re back into the market not only looking for another seventh defensemen, but also another third goaltender.

Their entire approach at 3G last year was something they should not replicate…ever.

Mark Alt, 28/Jayson Megna, 30

Predominantly Colorado Eagles last year, both players should find new homes next year. Alt was a waiver claim on trade deadline day a couple years ago and went on to captain what should have been the best AHL team the Avs have built in a long time.

Both should seek greener pastures and both are likely to be replaced by other AHL veterans. Circle of life in the AHL.

RFAs

Valeri Nichushkin, 25

Colorado’s love of reclamation projects finally paid off. After being paid by Dallas to go away, Nichushkin landed in Colorado and blossomed into the best version of himself.

While it’s clear he’ll never live up to his draft-day billing (go back and watch the video if you have a chance. It was mentioned he could be the best player from that draft class. Not quite!), Nichushkin found the offense to go with his elite defensive play as a wing to earn not only a regular spot in last year’s lineup but easily another contract from Colorado.

He’ll most certainly be qualified and they could consider a multi-year deal for him. That would probably be too rich for my blood given his last two years. Keeping the carrot dangling in front of him might be the safest approach while he has RFA years remaining.

Tyson Jost, 22

Everyone’s favorite young player to have really strong opinions about! Jost absolutely hasn’t lived up to his draft slot and has become the lightning rod of conversation on the Avalanche.

He should get a qualifying offer for the club to retain his rights and he most definitely will. Jost’s profile is closer to Nieto and Calvert than Jonathan Toews, the player he was most frequently compared to coming out of North Dakota, but that’s still a valuable NHL player. That’s especially true when he’s just 22 with four more years of RFA control.

He’s improved his all-around game a little bit every year and while he might be Colorado’s 12th forward, well, you still need 12. His deal should be similar to Nichushkin’s.

Vladislav Kamenev, 24

Kamenev has already signed a multi-year deal in the KHL. It just never worked out for him in the NHL after he lost two vital years due to injury. It would not be surprising to see him go back to Russia, play well in the KHL, and come back to the NHL.

We’re seeing it with Mikhail Grigorenko right now. You wish the best for a kid who only caught terrible luck in his Avalanche tenure. The Avs could extend him a qualifying offer to retain his rights but I’d expect them to just let him go.

Andre Burakovsky, 25

It’s amazing how careers can take such divergent paths. Born just a year apart, Kamenev and Burakovsky couldn’t have had more different paths. Burakovsky showed his NHL value quickly but never broke through in Washington.

That led him to Colorado, where he blossomed in his first season to the tune of a 45-point season and followed it with 17 points in 15 playoff games. He appears to be the real deal, especially as a shooter, where he scored 27 goals in an Avs uniform this past season between both the regular season and playoffs.

He will get a qualifying offer, of course, but the real question is what his contract ends up being. Do the Avs give him a lengthy contract that buys out his first UFA years or do they bridge him to UFA and see how he does in the next couple of years? It is one of the biggest decisions of this offseason for the Avs.

Ryan Graves, 25

What a story this guy is, eh? An AHL player swap at the trade deadline almost never comes back to matter at the NHL level for either team. Right now, the New York Rangers are wondering where this was when Graves was in their system?

Graves has steadily improved in his time in Colorado and it culminated in him being stapled to Cale Makar’s left side last year. The playoffs seemed to take some of the shine off Graves but Erik Johnson’s injury forced them to overplay one of their guys and Graves was it.

His age and smarts and physical play are all welcome along Colorado’s blue line but the Avs should be careful with his contract. It’s easy to overpay guys like this and give too much term. They’ll extend a qualifying offer but should take it slow with his contract.

Nikita Zadorov, 25

Born just a month apart, Zadorov has triple the NHL games as Graves. Somehow, the uncertainty over Zadorov’s future seems to dominate that of Graves. Some of that is potential.

We’ve seen Zadorov dominate games and specifically shut down the best players on opposing teams. We’ve seen Zadorov completely fall apart and look absolutely lost on the ice, leading to benchings and healthy scratches.

As the world turns with big Z, whose physicality is overrated by his fans and his weak play in front of his net overrated by his detractors. He’s a tough guy to figure out and he’s already making in excess of $3M.

With two more years of RFA remaining, it’s complicated with Zadorov. This is why the common thought, especially with Bowen Byram and Conor Timmins knocking on the NHL’s door, is that Zadorov (potentially in a package with Jost) is Colorado’s prime trade bait this offseason.

Teams are always desperate for defense, especially physical defenders. Zadorov fits the bill and the Avs can replace him with a younger, cheaper player but one who will play a different style. His value is hard to figure, both on the trade market and in a contract. He’ll get a qualifying offer but he is the main target of Colorado’s many trade discussions, along with Jost. It seems 50-50 at this point he starts next season in an Avalanche sweater.