Rox or Roll: Nolan Arenado's future with franchise in serious doubt

Welcome to our offseason series, Rox or Roll, where we take an overview of each Colorado Rockies player to determine their value and outlook moving forward.

Does this player continue to represent the Rox? Or is his time with Colorado on the downswing and he should roll on up out of here?

We begin where we must, at the top, with Nolan Arenado.

1. Summary of 2020

Arenado’s 2020 campaign was easily the most frustrating of his career for himself, his team, and his fans. Suffering a shoulder injury in the fourth contest of the season, Arenado looked like a shell of himself at the plate all year.

Outside of one brief power surge that saw him homer in three straight games, he was a black hole in the middle of the lineup. This came as an utter shock to anyone who has witnessed how incredible he has been at driving in important runs over the years and as such he was given multiple opportunities to work out of it.

Unfortunately for him and the Rockies, he never did.

2. The season in stats

Slashline: .253/.303/.434, 8 HR, 26 RBI

wRC+: 76

OPS+: 84

fWAR: 1.0

bWAR: 1.4

3. A stat you should know

Arenado ranked dead last on the Rockies in Win Probability Added (WPA) with a -1.58 meaning that he contributed to scoring plays at a lower rate than anyone on the team. He is typically among the league leaders in this stat.

Bonus Stat: Despite the injury and near total lack of production at the plate, Arenado remained a monster among men with the glove. He led MLB with 15 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) accounting for the vast majority of his positive WAR totals. He is a shoo-in to win his eighth consecutive Gold Glove.

4. Role in 2021

Starting third baseman and still middle-of-the-order bat. His season may be one of the biggest asterisks of an MLB season full of them.

5. Long-term projections

He will cross over into his 30s early next season, but very few will expect a downturn anytime soon from him. In fact, it is still possible – if not altogether likely – that Arenado’s best overall season has yet to be played.

6. Contract status

In case you somehow missed this, Arenado is under full team control through the end of next season (2021) after which he can either choose to opt out of the remainder of his deal with Colorado or return for the final five years of it.

Set to make $35 million from 2021-2024, $32 million in 2025, and $27 million in 2026… assuming he doesn’t opt out following the 2021. Otherwise, his next shot at becoming an unrestricted free agent isn’t until 2027.

7. Trade Value

Still pretty high, but lower than it has ever been. Coming off his worst season on the field and an injury, it is incredibly unlikely that the Rockies would get anything close to fair value offered in exchange for their star third baseman at this point.

He’s generally underrated by the rest of the league anyway because they would rather look at his home/road splits than his high-leverage/low-leverage splits and his contract complicates matters even further.

Arenado has a full no-trade clause and can reject a move to any team he isn’t thrilled about. He also has an opt-out that goes with him, meaning any team acquiring Arenado would risk losing him after just one year. Someone could attempt to work something out with him and his agent where they trade/extend near simultaneously but that can be incredibly tricky and, again, risky.

All of which means Colorado may not get what you’d expect for a perennial MVP candidate.

And then there’s the fact that you have to pay him more than just about anybody else in baseball as he moves deeper into his 30s, a methodology that MLB teams have been sprinting away from over the last few years.

All that said, all it takes is one GM out there recognizing that he is still one of the best players in baseball and that he might just be the final piece to turn them into a powerhouse.

8. Intangibles

Outside of whatever is going on between him and the front office, Arenado’s intangibles are off the charts. Just about everything a person can do to help their team win but can’t be measured, Arenado does.

However, some fair questions have arisen about whether the open fighting over the roster has ended up as a drag on the clubhouse, regardless of who is ultimately at fault. If Arenado is unhappy and letting it get to him, that’s going to have an effect on the team around him.

Without actually being in the room, it would be foolish to suggest a player and person of his caliber has become some kind of clubhouse “cancer” but it would be equally foolish to look at the drama surrounding him specifically and assume that has zero impact on his teammates.

Figuring out this issue will be one of the main priorities for the organization moving forward.

9. Rox or Roll?

DC: Rox.

There are simply too many complications to moving him right now. I also get the sense that Arenado has cooled off a bit from his angry offseason of a year ago. He still wants to see some changes and urgency to be sure but given everything that has happened, he appears more appreciative of what he already has.

He knows that winning elsewhere isn’t guaranteed and making the same money elsewhere may be nearly impossible, especially in the new economy. Knowing they are unlikely to get fair value, the Rockies are better off keeping Nolan at least until offers get better at next year’s trade deadline. In the meantime, all they can do is continue to try to build around him.

PL: Rox.

While a trade would not be surprising in the least, it just doesn’t seem like the Rockies would receive enough to justify losing their cornerstone. Even if GM Jeff Bridich can grab the Golden Idol á la Raiders of the Lost Ark by dealing Arenado and signing Trevor Story to an extension, the optics would be an overall net loss.

This doesn’t mean Colorado will not seek to deal Arenado during the season if everything falls apart horribly as any rebuild for the future would almost certainly have to involve their most valuable piece.

Regardless, there’s too much at stake to jettison the greatest player in franchise history when much of the core from consecutive playoff appearances, not to mention the best starting rotation in team history, is still intact.

The Rockies need to do something on the trade market, it’s clear, but it won’t have anything to do with Arenado.