Rox or Roll: Big decisions face David Dahl and his future with the Colorado Rockies

Welcome to our offseason series, Rox or Roll, where we take an overview of each Colorado Rockies player to determine their value and outlook moving forward.

Does this player continue to represent the Rox? Or is his time with Colorado on the downswing and he should roll on up out of here.

Next on our list is the exceptionally talented but oft-injured outfielder, David Dahl.

1. Summary of 2020

Dahl’s 2020 was an epic disaster. Once again, the injury bug bit him and cost him more than half the season. In previous years, Dahl had been able to recover from his ails and produce when he did take the field.

Not this time.

Apart from a hot first week where he paced the team in hitting, he could not find the groove at the plate even a little bit.

A shoulder issue limited him to just 24 games played and the numbers for those appearances are easily the worst of his career.

2. The season in stats

Slashline: .183/.222/.247, 0 HR, 9 RBI, 9 R

wRC+: 10

OPS+: 19

fWAR: -0.8

bWAR: -1.1

3. A stat you should know

At 26-years-old, Dahl has now spent parts of four MLB seasons with the Rockies. The most games in which he’s played is 100 in 2019.

He missed all of 2017. Dahl made the 2018 Opening Day roster, but played in just 77 contests.

Despite all this, he is still an above-average bat with a career line of .286/.334/.494, good for a 101 wRC+. (He has three seasons of a wRC+ at or above 110.)

4. Role in 2021

Stop us if you’ve heard this one before.

If healthy, Dahl is a starting outfielder on any team in baseball.

The biggest question at this point is where he would play. His natural position in centerfield. Its also the place where he’d fit best between Raimel Tapia, who is at his best in left, and Charlie Blackmon, who no longer has the legs to man center himself.

The unfortunate part is this position brings the most wear-and-tear for a player who already has plenty. You could protect him better in left and take your chance with Tapia in center. Until the universal DH becomes a guaranteed fixture, there simply aren’t any other options.

5. Long-term projections

The future of David Dahl may be the cloudiest of anyone on this club. He could land anywhere on the spectrum from “forced into early retirement” to “multiple time All-Star” and just about anything in between.

The talent is there. He’s still young. With the exception of this season, every time Dahl has been in the Rockies lineup, he has made it unequivocally better. There is so much possibility there.

Who knows if we will ever see it all come to fruition.

6. Contract status

Dahl is set to make about $2.6 million in arbitration next season and will remain under team control through 2023. He’ll enter free agency for his age-30 season during the 2023-24 offseason.

7. Trade Value

Would have to imagine this swings wildly depending on which team you talk to and how highly they still regard the talented young man from Alabama.

On the one hand, you have a five-tool player who has been an All-Star, paid like a journeyman, and will stay quite affordable for three more seasons. He is right in the middle of what should be his physical prime and none of his injuries have been in any way related to each other.

On the other hand, of course, his value has to be at it’s lowest considering yet another sidelined season with some brutal numbers.

8. Intangibles

It’s been difficult for Dahl to provide many intangibles because he has missed so much time.

By all accounts, he’s a great teammate and a student of the game. He gets along well with everyone in the clubhouse, is loathe to complain or seek attention, and is generally pretty subdued.

Like many of the primary leaders of the team, Dahl can be pretty serious and focused. They’ve all got their own ways of lightening the mood, but as we’ve discussed on the DNVR Rockies Podcast, you can’t expect him (or anyone else on this team, really) to be a high-energy “rah rah” guy a la Gerardo Parra.

9. Rox or Roll?

DC: Rox.

It’s worth considering moving Dahl for a number of reasons.

The Rockies actually could get a pretty decent return. He’s quite good at the baseball and someone out there may rightly believe a move away from altitude could benefit his health greatly.

It opens up a roster spot should the team be interested in adding a more reliable, consistent bat.

Depending on the details, it could save them a little bit of money to spend elsewhere.

It would also put an end to the guessing game about when he will and won’t take the field.

It may even be what’s best for Dahl who couldn’t be in a worse environment when it comes to trying to recover from all the nonsense he’s had to deal with.

But Colorado can’t afford to just give away a player of his caliber. If the right move came along, sure, roll with it. I suspect other teams are going to lowball the Rockies on this player at least until he shows some bounce back at the beginning of next season.

At which point, he either becomes a much more valuable commodity to trade or a piece that you can start to build a new future around.

PL: Rox

Part of me wants to see Dahl as a successful member of another team rather than a player that makes me grimace every time he dives for a baseball or whose name shows up on the injured list in a press release.

For a player of his caliber, its been one unfortunate and unlucky ailment after another.

Until Colorado figures out what it’ll do with their roster, it makes the most sense to keep him in purple and allow him the opportunity to regain some trade value.

This offseason could see a record number of non-tendered contracts to players already on team friendly arbitration deals due to the sport looking to recoup some of the estimated $3 billion in losses from the economic impact of the pandemic.

Could Dahl find himself as one of those non-tender candidates? Maybe.

Will he be? No.

He’ll need to recover from recent shoulder surgery which should allow him to return in time for Spring Training and give the multi-tool athlete an opportunity to contribute once again. At that time, we may have to re-examine this conversation.