Roundtable: Nuggets-Warriors series predictions, X-factors, key matchups

It’s playoff time. Game 1 of Nuggets-Warriors is Saturday night in Golden State. DNVR Nuggets makes their picks for the series, names their X-factors, and goes over the key matchups that will decide who moves onto the second round.

Who’s the Nuggets’ biggest X-factor in the series?

Adam: Aaron Gordon

The Warriors’ best lineup features Draymond Green at center and Andrew Wiggins or Otto Porter Jr. at power forward. Neither of which are a good matchup for Gordon inside. In the games in which both Gordon and Draymond played last season, the Nuggets looked to Gordon to post-up and bang inside. When he had success, the Nuggets went on runs. When he failed, the Warriors went on runs. He will be at the heart of the main “best lineup” battle between both teams.

Harrison: Austin Rivers

First, I wouldn’t be completely surprised if he’s starting by Game 3 or 4. Second, he’s going to be matched up with Steph Curry likely more than any other Nuggets player. Michael Malone knows that Rivers is the Nuggets’ best perimeter defender and he has fared well against Curry at times across Denver and Golden State’s four meetings this season. On the other end of the floor, he’ll have to knock down catch-and-shoot 3s and be a threat off the dribble. Aaron Gordon is a huge X-factor for Denver as well, and the Nuggets also need him to be a two-way beast. But if Denver can’t make life difficult for Curry this will be a quick series. Rivers gives the Nuggets their best chance to slow him down.

Brendan: Bones Hyland

I’d have picked Rivers too, but let’s change it up and talk about the rookie. Hyland’s looked at least confident, if not also competent, on every big stage so far in his nascent career. The playoffs are a different beast, but the action happens on fertile proving grounds, and Bones carries himself as more predator than prey. It’s not fair to crank up the expectations, but at his best, Hyland can bend momentum to his will. At his worst, his ambition usurps his control and his defensive flaws compound the issue. What will young Bones bring to the table?

Who’s the Warriors’ biggest X-factor?

Harrison: Jordan Poole

Here are Poole’s averages vs. Denver this season across three games: 22.7 points (58.1 FG%, 60.9 3P%), 3 rebounds and 6.3 assists in 30.3 minutes. He’s killed the Nuggets every time he’s played them this year. If Poole puts up those numbers again in this series, it’s a wrap. Denver doesn’t stand a chance. The Nuggets haven’t defended anyone since the All-Star break — Denver’s 24th in Defensive Rating since March 1 — but they’ve got to flip the switch and put up some kind of resistance against Poole to stay afloat. He’ll be going against the Nuggets’ bench unit and at times, probably to close games, their starters too.

Adam: Steph Curry

The correct answer is Poole but to give a different answer than Wind, I’ll go with the Steph. It’s hard to call their best player an x-factor but he is coming back from a month off. If he struggles in this series, could he become a distraction to the team? It’s not likely but injuries always change a series.

Brendan: Klay Thompson

Thompson’s entering the postseason in form, and that’s a terrifying thought. If he’s a virtually dribble-less scoring threat then Denver’s in for a world of hurt. Thompson can fall victim to forcing the issue and settling for poor shots. At least, he did so against Denver in their last matchup, but he’s knocked off a lot of the rust since. There’s a slight chance, emphasis on slight, that he doesn’t fit into a nightmare-inducing offense as seamlessly as he has in the past. If you believe in the power of manifestation, this is your cue.

What matchup are you focused on the most?

Adam: Nikola Jokic vs Draymond Green

Draymond is one of the best defenders of all time. Jokic is one of the most dominant offensive players of all time. Jokic needs to dominate this matchup, inside and out.

Harrison: Nikola Jokic vs. Draymond Green

I don’t think the Warriors start off games defending Jokic with Green — they’ll definitely make Kevon Looney battle Jokic early on — but it’s how they will finish. In a Jokic and Green matchup, you get the best offensive player and the best defensive player in the league 1-on-1. You get arguably the two highest IQ players in the NBA squaring off. You get the subtleness of Jokic contrasted with the fire and spirit that Green brings every possession. It will be a fascinating chess match between the two. Green can use his strength to battle Jokic in the post, but Jokic was the most efficient post-up player in the NBA this season. He should still be able to get the shots and looks off that he wants. I can’t wait to see these two battle.

Brendan: Austin Rivers vs. Steph Curry

This feels like a classic example of a base gassing up an alleged star-stopper only to watch that star dominate the series. As a Warriors fan, I’d probably laugh at this answer. But Rivers has done an excellent job guarding Curry in a Nuggets uniform, and while that’s come in limited sample size, it’s still ample evidence that he’s Denver’s best hope of surviving Curry’s minutes. He’ll likely close more than once in this series, and a start or two is also on the table. We’ll see if he’s got any more first round magic in him.

Series Prediction

Adam: Warriors in 6

Harrison: Nuggets in 7

The Warriors are better on paper. They have more depth, more talent, more experience, and homecourt advantage. They’re an elite defense with the most versatile and smartest defender in the league. They shoot better than the Nuggets and close games better than the Nuggets. They have a championship-winning coach. But they don’t have Nikola Jokic. I just watched Jokic do something that should have been impossible this season and carry the Nuggets to the six seed and 48 wins without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. The dominance I saw from Jokic this season, I’ve never seen before. Jokic has mastered the game of basketball. He knows what the defense is going to do before even they do. When all the cards are stacked against him, he usually finds a way to come out on top. Jokic alone gives the Nuggets a punchers chance to win this series.

Brendan: Warriors in 6

The Warriors have terrific guard play, top-end talent, championship experience, and aren’t running on fumes. The Nuggets are painfully ill-equipped to defend the Warriors’ strengths, gasping for air after outrunning the Wolves to the finish line and missing some of their essential pieces. There’s not much reason to pick them in this series outside of the MVP. But they do have the MVP. Nothing is impossible, and nothing surprises me at this point. It’s just too hard to pick this group when the calvary hasn’t arrived.

Take solace in how frequently I’m wrong.