Roundtable: How do the Nuggets approach the rest of the season without Michael Porter Jr?

Michael Porter Jr.’s season is likely over after news broke Monday that he’s undergoing lower back surgery. It’s Porter’s third low back surgery of his career. The DNVR Nuggets crew discusses this latest setback for Porter and how Denver will proceed without its starting small forward.

Michael Porter Jr. is set for surgery on Wednesday. What was your initial reaction to the news?

Adam: I was holding out hope that surgery wouldn’t be needed since requiring a third back surgery represents several new challenges for the Nuggets. First, it means that Porter Jr. will miss the remainder of the season. Second, it means that his long-term future is almost certainly more up in the air than we all hoped just a few weeks ago. Third, it means that trading Porter Jr. will likely be next to impossible over the life of his 5-year contract that doesn’t even begin until next season.

One reason I suspect that the Denver Nuggets chose to extend Porter Jr. early was so that his contract would be tradeable as early as next summer. With this injury, it is likely that even if he bounces back and plays well in the 2022-23 season, teams will view him as too much of a long-term injury risk to treat him like a positive or equal value contract. That means the Nuggets’ success over the next half-decade will be tied to his health and success.

Harrison: First, I wasn’t surprised. This always seemed like the route we were heading once Denver’s initial course of treatment didn’t work. For Porter, it’s his third back surgery before his 24th birthday. I feel for him. I sympathize with him. Porter’s facing another long rehab that’s sure to be frustrating, especially for someone who lives in the gym like he does. The mental toll that back injuries and subsequent nerve damage can take on someone can be life-altering. I know this from my own experience of having a back injury very similar to the one Porter had and nearly having the microdiscectomy surgery Porter underwent in 2018. Porter has a strong support circle around him that he’ll need to rely on.

Porter’s future can still be bright, but it’s a precarious road back. He likely won’t be playing this season. If all goes well, (I’m guessing) he could be back for the start of the 2022-23 season when his max contract kicks in. But after three surgeries in five years, Porter will never shed these injury questions even after he enjoyed a very healthy last two seasons. How many NBA players have had long and fulfilling careers after three back surgeries? It can’t be a long list. What I do know about Porter is that he’ll still want this bad. Porter has a hunger to be great, and that hunger has gotten him to this point — through two back surgeries already and to a status as one of the NBA’s true rising stars.

Brendan: This is the update we never wanted. Surgery was likely, though not guaranteed, and it’s no surprise Porter sought multiple opinions on a third back surgery before the age of 24. The path back for him is long and arduous. It’s one he’s walked before, and he knows better than most how difficult it will be. He will face a good deal of physical discomfort, let alone the burden on the mind. Sympathy is the first layer, no matter how much money he’s lined up to make.

The second layer, of course, is how much money he’s lined up to make. The Nuggets placed a great deal of weight on the shoulders of extreme talent, but Porter’s capacity for that was always in question. That decision looks as questionable this afternoon as it ever did. For the optimists: there is a path to Porter’s recovery. He can still contribute to playoff runs that occur over a contract that kicks in next season. The Nuggets are banking on that.

How should the Nuggets approach the rest of the season, likely without Porter?

Adam: Nothing changes. Nikola Jokic is far and away the best player in Denver Nuggets franchise history. He is entering the peak of his prime. The Nuggets have been dealt a rough hand with injuries to Porter, Jamal Murray, and PJ Dozier but you simply don’t punt on a season when you have Jokic. Denver’s championship odds take a huge hit with the Porter (and Dozier) news, but as long as you have Jokic, you have a chance.

Harrison: The Nuggets can’t and would never punt a season unless there was an injury to Nikola Jokic. You don’t waste a season of his prime because it can all be gone in a flash. This team should still make the playoffs with Jokic and there’s still a good enough supporting cast around him to win a first-round series. The Nuggets without Porter but with Murray (even returning from his ACL injury) and Will Barton and Aaron Gordon are a much better team than the one that beat Portland in the first round last year. The Murray-Jokic two-man core keeps Denver’s championship window open even with Porter’s uncertain future. It’s Stockton-Malone esque.

Brendan: The Jokić and Malone-led Nuggets wouldn’t quit even if it were the wise thing to do. The luxury of having a player like Jokić on the roster is that the players know they have a chance on any given night. The Nuggets will stay the course as a matter of cultural philosophy and habit.

Are there any silver linings that can come from this news?

Adam: It’s hard to imagine a scenario where things break better for the Nuggets with Porter Jr. out for the year but the one thing you can look at in the short term is that there is an opportunity for players like Bones Hyland and Zeke Nnaji to get real minutes and develop their skill sets. Even Aaron Gordon will have a chance to take on a more meaningful role with the Nuggets. Those things may pay off this season and surprise us all but they will certainly pay off when and if Porter is able to rejoin the team next season.

Harrison: Of course. But Denver was trying to contend for a championship this season, so the real answer is no. If Porter’s out for the season, it definitely drops the Nuggets’ championship odds and makes things much tougher for Denver throughout the regular season. However, Bones Hyland really has a chance to grow and take the reigns of the second unit offense now that we know Porter won’t be staggering with that group all season. Zeke Nnaji should stick in the rotation too. Vlatko Cancar also deserves minutes on the wing. Gordon can continue to establish himself more on the offensive end. The onus also now falls on Will Barton, even more, to produce night-in night-out like he’s been doing. Also, Denver could find itself in position to draft top-20 projected pick Nikola Jovic next summer.

Brendan: I’m all warmed up for my Olympic-worthy mental gymnastics routine. Despite the injury concerns, the Nuggets believed in Porter’s talent, and I’ve always thought they were right to do so. If we take Austin Rivers at his word that Porter’s felt discomfort all season, then we have an explanation for the seemingly inexplicable. The talent is still there if he makes a strong recovery. Those early-season struggles make sense now.

Are the Nuggets cursed?

Adam: No. But it will always feel like they are. That is the lot of non-glamour market teams like the Nuggets. You’ve got to roll 7s a half dozen times to win a championship. Hitting snake eyes even once feels like a curse but the odds always have been and always will be against the Nuggets. They ran lucky to draft an MVP in the second round and they ran unlucky that their only two lottery picks of the last decade are going to miss most of the season.

Harrison: Injuries are part of the game, Tim Connelly always says. Every team deals with them, and in the year 2021, the NBA is a war of attrition. The healthiest teams are typically the ones in a position to make the Finals. The Nuggets are not cursed. They just get injured, and you just hope it’s not what this team will be known for in the end.

Brendan: They swim upstream in their ecosystem. It’s always been that way, and it demands calculated risks. Perhaps their latest was a mistake, but it wasn’t inevitable, and fate remains unsealed. There’s no curse, and there’s still Jokić. Onward.