Countdown to Trade Deadline: 20 Days
Welcome to a daily discussion of the front office frenzy known as the MLB trade deadline. Before any trade rumors can be discussed, it’s important to establish the relative positioning of the Rockies at this year’s deadline. Simply declaring a team a “buyer” or “seller” does little in the context of analyzing potential organizational approach. This begs the question: Where exactly do the Rockies currently stand?
Jake Shapiro made a seemingly controversial claim a couple weeks back that the Rockies weren’t really in the NL West race and are essentially playing the rest of the 2017 regular season trying to lock up a Wild Card spot. Since the publication of Shapiro’s column, the Rockies have struggled to a 5-10 record. As it stands today, here are various calculations of current playoff odds:
| Site | Make Playoffs | Win NL West | Win World Series |
| Fangraphs | 60.9% | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| FiveThirtyEight | 71% | <1% | 2% |
| Baseball Prospectus | 75.9% | 0.3% | 1.8% |
Well, that settles it. The Rockies need to forget about winning the NL West in 2017. What does that mean for the 2017 trade deadline? That’s been discussed by a very handsome writer here at BSN before.
The reality is that, without divisional implications, the Rockies are at the mercy of the outcome of one game. It’s a near 50/50 crapshoot. A single game of baseball has so much variability. There’s a reason teams play 162 of them.
As such, it’s likely the Rockies take a more prudent approach to this year’s trade deadline. There is little value in mortgaging the farm, shortening the franchise’s window for contention, for slightly better odds in one game of baseball.
This is not to say the Rockies shouldn’t remain opportunistic if a premium talent like Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, or Jonathan Lucroy (more on Lucroy tomorrow) turns out to be cheaper than expected. However, it’s not likely that any of those guys will just fall into Bridich’s lap.
Mostly, the Rockies would be wise to look at a few specific need areas — the bullpen, maybe a bench player or an offensive upgrade somewhere — and aim at players who won’t cost any of their top five or six prospects. But there is plenty of room to get creative.
A discussion of more specific rumors and potential trade targets starts tomorrow. Stay tuned.
Bonus Home Run Derby Analysis
Aaron Judge is probably an alien. The guy almost broke the roof. And that one didn’t even count. One of the best Derby’s in years and Colorado Rockie Charlie Blackmon had a nice showing for himself, putting up an admirable number at 14, being narrowly edged out by Cody Bellinger. It’s hard to have “controversy” in an exhibition event but someone could do a solid CSI tape-measure investigation on that last home run that gave Bellinger the extra 30 seconds he needed.
