For the 2017 Colorado Rockies, there exists a palpable feeling of excitement going into a season in which they have fewer question marks than any time in recent memory. With Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, and David Dahl set to roam the outfield and Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and DJ LeMahieu making their returns in the infield — and of course the newly anointed and much lambasted first baseman Ian Desmond in the fold — all but one starting position is covered.
Further, the starting rotation will, barring injury, contain Tyler Anderson and Jon Gray after their breakout 2016 seasons, and Tyler Chatwood and Chad Bettis have earned their places as the reigning 27-year-old veterans. This again, leaves just one spot in doubt.
In the bullpen, the additions of Greg Holland and Mike Dunn, and a healthy Adam Ottavino, push the rest of the guys down the depth chart a bit, leaving fewer questions at the top but a few for the final two spots.
And this is where we find ourselves as spring training begins. Here are the players who have the most to play for in the games that don’t count.
Catchers: Tony Wolters vs. Tom Murphy
Colorado faithful are confident in the Rockies catching tandem of Tony Wolters and Tom Murphy and it is easy to understand why. In small sample sizes, the former has proven to be a wizard defensively and the latter has displayed the prodigious power he was known for in the minors. Conversely, Wolters has not yet shown and ability to contribute consistently with the bat and Murphy has looked shaky on defense.
Both young players will make the team and share the catching duties. In fact, their play throughout the entire season could change minds fluidly about how much time to give each behind the dish. But the question remains; who will don the gear on day one? What about day two?
Whoever wins this battle could also give some insight into the front office’s thinking moving forward. Unless it just becomes crystal clear that one going better than the other, who starts will tell us how much the Rockies value catcher defense versus home run power. Another interesting wrinkle to this comes in a later category since one of these guys will end up on the bench. As tempting as it is to want to absolutely maximize plate appearance for a guy with a home run rate like Murphy’s, having him on the bench as the less-used side of a platoon gives the Rockies an exciting late-game pinch-hitter as well.
BSN Denver’s Educated Guess: Tony Wolters
Bench: Alexi Amarista/Cristhian Adames vs. Jordan Patterson
The reserves on the 25-man roster for a National League ball club are often incredibly underrated in terms of their overall value toward season success. Teams in general need depth, teams in the NL need it even more, and teams that deal with the sometimes crushing physical effects of playing half their games at altitude and an inordinate number of road games at sea level … well, they need depth the way Kyrie Irving needs science class.
This helps explain the disparity between how BSN Denver sees the Ian Desmond signing, and the way it has been reported on in other places. Jeff Bridich confirmed at the press conference introducing the newest and most controversial Rockie, that should Trevor Story be sidelined with an injury, like he was a year ago, Desmond would move over to play short stop.
This being the case, the Rockies don’t actually have to pigeonhole themselves into a traditional bench. In other words, despite the signing of Alexi Amarista and the existence of Cristhian Adames, the Rockies don’t need a middle infielder on the bench. At least not right away.
We are also assuming, even though his roster spot isn’t guaranteed, that Mark Reynolds will make the club and serve as a kind of captain of the bench. He would be called upon to take over the first base duties any time Desmond needs to move around the diamond, and also can give a quality at-bat with fear of power late in games. Reynolds is the absolute perfect person for this job.
Gerardo Parra is also likely a lock because of his contract and his career stats that suggest he should be due for a rebound.
If the Rockies carry eight relievers, which seems likely at this point, that leaves only one more spot on the bench with the backup catcher taking a third. That is where the more traditional mind says you put a middle infielder, but as we discussed, the Rockies don’t have to do that. They could call upon someone like Jordan Patterson, or longshot Domonic Brown, if they believe he has more of an ability to help with the bat.
This spot is likely Amarista’s to lose. The Rockies like his glove, Bud Black has praised him going back to their days in San Diego, and it would be an odd signing if they didn’t intend to use him. But it isn’t a foregone conclusion and both he and Adames could win a spot with good play, or lose one with bad play. They can always wait until later in the season, but if Jordan Patterson shows up mashing in spring training, it would be worth carrying him in a season where the Rockies are trying to compete with the Giants and Dodgers.
BSN Denver’s Educated Guess: Mark Reynolds, Gerardo Parra, Tom Murphy, Alexi Amarista
Closer: Greg Holland vs. Adam Ottavino
Greg Holland and Adam Ottavino will be having a kind of battle of their own. This has been much discussed lately, especially here on the BSN Denver Podcast, but since this battle isn’t for a roster spot we will keep it short.
If Greg Holland shows up at spring training healthy and hitting 95 mph, we think he gets the closer’s job. Ottavino has the confidence of coaches, teammates, and the press — and he has earned that — but Holland’s resume speaks for itself.
We have it on good authority that the two men are already enjoying trying to one-up each other which can only mean good things for the Rockies. Watching this throughout spring training, and potentially the entire 2017 season, should provide for some high-quality entertainment for those who love dynamic pitching.
BSN Denver’s Educated Guess: Greg Holland
Final Bullpen Spot(s): Lots of guys vs. Lots of other guys
We are assuming here that the Rockies will go forward with an eight-man bullpen. If they don’t you can take the last name off this list, and add Patterson to the bench.
With Holland and Ottavino battling at the top, the next few spots fill in with a slew of players who have experience closing and big bad fastballs; Jake McGee, Mike Dunn, and Carlos Estevez.
McGee and Dunn are locks to make the pen (again barring injury) because of the value given up to get them, their left-handedness, and moments of dominance in their past. McGee was at one time considered a Top 10 reliever in the game. Coming off an injury-riddled season and playing for a new contract, we fully expect him to rebound nicely and serve as the go-to late-inning guy for tough lefties. That leaves Dunn for LOOGY duties earlier in the game.
Estevez isn’t a lock but is close. Regardless of how anyone feels about his blown saves a season ago, Estevez just turned 24 and displayed an extraordinary ability to rise to the occasion and get big outs against the best hitters in the world. Now, he will be asked to do less with much more experience. If he remains mistake prone, it hurts the Rockies less because the game won’t hang in the balance at that exact moment. If he figures things out even more, he could become a dominating set-up man. With Ottavino and McGee around, he could be forced into being the most electric sixth/seventh inning reliever in baseball. No team wants to see a bullpen guy come into the game in the sixth or seventh inning who can pump in 100 mph.
And now we come to Chris Rusin, perhaps the most underrated member of the 2016 Rockies. When called upon for spot starts, he performed admirably and out of the ‘pen he was at times a Godsend. According to advanced clutch statistics like RE24 and WPA, he was nails and his calling-card low walk rate should be taught in Colorado Rockies Pitching 101. He, too, has done enough to earn his spot, showing an ability to go multiple innings if needed, or work out of a tough jam if that is what the situation calls for. He is the third lefty in the pen, which maximizes flexibility and gives the club an option for a spot start given minor injuries in the rotation.
This leaves two spots for Chad Qualls, Jason Motte, Miguel Castro, Jairo Diaz, Jordan Lyles and Scott Oberg. Guys on the 40-man roster who could also factor into this conversation include: Rayan Gonzalez, Sam Moll, Shane Carle, and Zach Jemiola. Bud Black has also hinted that he wouldn’t be against trying one of the Rockies top starting prospects in the bullpen. This puts Jeff Hoffman, German Marquez, and Kyle Freeland in the mix as well, with Antonio Senzatela and Yency Almonte as possible mid-season options.
Options. Lots and lots of options.
It seems likely that the Rockies would want Castro to get his feet back underneath him after a rough end to 2016. The 22-year-old should be the defacto Triple-A closer and if he looks good early would be first in line for a call up.
It seems unlikely that the club will be able to unload both Qualls and Motte, but it also seems unlikely that they would just hand both of their final bullpen spots to the two vets who so dramatically underperformed expectations last season. Motte was a little better and is a little younger, which we think gives him the inside edge for one of the two spots.
The final roster spot then comes down to Diaz versus Lyles versus Oberg. Diaz might not be fully ready to go until May, still recovering from Tommy John, so despite him having the highest ceiling, we will assume he gets a chance to get back into a rhythm in Albuquerque.
Uncertainty about Oberg’s health makes this final decision tough. The Rockies likely didn’t give Lyles 3 million dollars to hang out in Triple-A, but Oberg really began to emerge at the end of the 2016 season. Assuming the Rockies don’t get super creative and give this spot to a starter, it looks like it’s Lyles spot to win or lose.
BSN Denver’s Educated Guess: Jason Motte, Jordan Lyles
Final Rotation Spot: Jeff Hoffman vs. German Marquez
Ok. This is all anyone really wants to know anyway. Hoffman or Marquez? Marquez or Hoffman? The main piece of the Troy Tulowitzki trade or the main piece of the Corey Dickerson trade? The top draft pick from New York or the under-the-radar-until-he-was-Eastern-League-Pitcher-of-the-Year from Venezuela? The 97 mph fastball with the gorgeous curve or the 97 mph sinker with the devastating changeup?
The 24-year-old Hoffman has a little more experience than the 21-year-old Marquez, though in their short MLB stints, Marquez was more impressive. And both look good in a suit. More than any other place on the roster, this will likely be decided by who pitches better in the spring.
Get your popcorn.
BSN Denver’s Educated Guess: This is gonna be fun
