Of all the concerns keeping the Colorado Rockies from contention last season, it wasn’t hard for fans to reach a consensus on the biggest one: the bullpen.
No matter how you look at the numbers, the result is frustrating. The Rockies’ bullpen ERA ranked as the worst in the major leagues in 2016 at 5.13. They also allowed the third most runs on the season at 321. The strikeout to walk ratio was also behind only the Rangers for worst in the league, and the bullpen walked batters at a 9.9% clip, third highest in the majors. As a whole, the bullpen blew 34 saves.
So why is there more of a sense of optimism around that staff now? In addition to the addition of Greg Holland, a previously dominant closer before Tommy John surgery with a strong case for a comeback year, it is because of the flashes of brilliance demonstrated by the young relievers.
We already know the Rockies will be trotting out arguably the best starting rotation in team history. If they hope to have a successful 2017 season, one of the biggest components rests on the shoulders of those relievers to make strides from tantalizing talent to consistent results.
The team can expect some form of consistency from relievers like Jake McGee, Jordan Lyles, and Mike Dunn — guys who have been around long enough and have produced enough consistency in results for us to reasonably predict, for better or worse, how their pitching line will look.
But where the bullpen will thrive or flounder this season is with the younger relievers, who as a group are a different sort of pitcher than the team has traditionally relied upon. Most are hard-throwing swing-and-miss guys, the direction Colorado has consistently moved with its staff since Jeff Bridich became the GM. This is the year for them to rise to their potential and prove the team has taken the right steps with its pitching staff.
After working his way into closing games last season, Carlos Estevez is looking to re-establish himself after floundering at the end of last season. In 63 games, Estevez posted a 5.24 ERA and a WHIP of 1.42, and was no longer in the closing role by August.
With the closer role filled by Holland and the setup role by Ottavino, Estevez will likely take a middle-reliever role. That could be a good lower-pressure spot for him to regain some confidence and work on his new delivery, which has removed many of the complicated moving parts that left his release point inconsistent to contribute to his struggles last year.
The most exciting thing about Estevez is his power; his fastball averages 97 miles per hour and can reach up to 100. If his new delivery can help him to better locate pitches, he could wind up in a premiere role this year and become one of the bullpen’s most essential members.
For many fans, the name Scott Oberg probably has more negative feelings attached to it than positive memories. Coaches have long raved about his electric stuff, and that was the same argument Bud Black made in explaining his decision to place Oberg on the Opening Day roster over veteran Jason Motte.
“I like the mix of pitches. I like the fastball-slider combination. I like the changeup to the lefties. Scott showed some consistency in his stuff and his performance,” Black said.
Oberg did perform well in Spring Training, maintaining a 1.93 ERA in nine innings pitched. He has also historically dominated Triple-A hitters. In 2016, he posted a 2.43 ERA with a 10.9 K/9 rate in 29 innings pitched.
Fans have long waited for Oberg to translate some of that dominance to the major leagues, and while it has appeared in flashes, he is more known for massive meltdowns and handing away the team’s chances of victory. Perhaps the strong spring and grooming time in the minors is finally leading to the season he can maintain some performance consistency and harness the promising raw stuff coaches have praised and fans have seen.
Black is betting on that potential over veteran experience, and if Oberg takes the steps he needs to at the major league level, it could be one of the best roster decisions of the spring.
The Rockies also have several options waiting in the wings, including Jairo Diaz as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Diaz has a career 2.55 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 24.2 innings and could take a role as a valuable power arm if his recovery continues on track.
Meanwhile, Harrison Musgrave, Zach Jemiola, and Matt Carasiti may not be on the 40-man roster but are players with the potential to make an impact this season. Musgrave, in particular, had a strong showing in Spring Training and should be an early call-up in the case of injuries or other circumstances.
While players like Arenado and Story, or pitchers like Gray and Ottavino will grab the headlines this season, one of the most volatile roles is the relievers. If the young arms can make the steps the team is counting on, the Rockies have a real chance at the postseason. If they don’t, it will likely be another season of unfulfilled expectations as the bullpen flounders.
