Rockies clip Cardinals and Adam Wainwright in St. Louis - Is the leadoff spot settled?

Adam Wainwright and the St. Louis Cardinals were looking to make history on Friday night against the Colorado Rockies. Neither were successful.

The 9-4 victory over the Redbirds snapped a 12-game losing streak in St. Louis. It was the most Colorado had scored at Busch Stadium since plating 10 in 2009. Led by Nolan Jones and his 4-for-5 performance that produced three runs batted in, everyone in Colorado’s starting lineup had a base hit.

Good things come in 3s 🙂 pic.twitter.com/P52UkPvlhx

— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) August 5, 2023

Wainwright entered the game with 1.38 ERA against the Rockies, a mark that trailed only Mel Stottlemyre’s 1.22 ERA against the California Angels as the best earned run average (minimum 14 starts) against a single team since the start of Division play in 1969.

The 41-year-old starter, in the midst of the worst season in his 18-year career, gave up seven runs across three innings. The loss meant the club would have to wait for their 10,000th win since being renamed the St. Louis Cardinals in 1900 since dropping the nickname Perfectos following the 1899 season.

Chris Flexen pitched much better after his debut in purple went poorly against the Oakland Athletics last Friday (3.2 IP, 6 R, 5 ER). The 29-year-old also improved upon his previous outing against the Cardinals earlier in the season with the Seattle Mariners (4.0 IP, 6 R, 6 ER). In five innings of work, Flexen was able to minimize the damage of 10 hits allowed to give up three runs over 72 pitches. 

Despite the loss, St. Louis has won 18 of their last 20 and 35 of their last 42 (.833) at home since Sept. 30, 2010 versus Colorado.

Can Lack of Speed Kill?

Major League Baseball implemented several new rules at the start of the 2023 season to decrease the length of games and increase the amount of action on the field. Everything has worked to perfection across the board.

The time of game is down 26 minutes to 2:40, a number that hasn’t been seen in the big leagues since 1984. Attendance is up around the sport, too. Only five teams are seeing lower figures at this point in the year than last, and three of those are experiencing a decrease of less than 600 per game.

One of the larger developments in the current game is an increase in stolen bases. Last season, the Texas Rangers led MLB with 128 stolen bases and were one of eight teams with 100 or more during the 162-game slate. So far, with most teams having 50 or more games remaining, five clubs have already reached the century mark, led by the Cincinnati Reds and their 126 stolen bases.

“I think the rule changes have impacted the running game. And some people might say (it’s) the distance between the two bases — four-and-a-half inches — so there’s some thought there,” manager Bud Black said. “But I think it’s more of a reflection of the disengagement rule, I think that’s probably led to more of an aggressive approach by teams on the base stealing side.”

Colorado is dead last in stolen bases this season with 40. They were 29th last season with 45. Though they should pass that total with ease, they will fall short of 100 bases for the 10th consecutive season. 

The Rockies haven’t stolen 100 bases since 2013, and only four teams have had longer droughts: Atlanta (2012), Baltimore Orioles (2007), Minnesota Twins (2012) and San Francisco Giants (2012).

Cincinnati has already doubled their stolen base total since last season, jumping from 27th with 58 up to most in MLB with 126. It’s been one of the reasons they’ve also improved from a 100-loss club in 2022 to being tied with the fifth-best record (59-53) in the National League. Conversely, the Rangers may end up being one of the few teams to see a reduction in steals over the last year. Yet, they are having even more success than the Reds with the third-best record (64-36) in the American League. 

Elly De La Cruz stole second, third and home in the span of two pitches!

(MLB x @Ziprecruiter) pic.twitter.com/tOogXBGcpi

— MLB (@MLB) July 8, 2023

Stealing bases may not be the sole indicator of success, but it has value. Just how valuable is it for the Rockies?

“I think it’s important that you have a well balanced team. I think that’s probably the thing I think all teams (want) is that balance of power, average and speed,” Black explained. “I do think because of the rule changes, it is an advantage to have some team speed. That does play in this year’s game and years before, but there still has to be a balance… The best teams are those that are balanced.”

Brenton Doyle leads the team with 14 stolen bases in spite of not making his debut until April 24. That total is good for 38th-most in all of MLB, not to mention more than team-leader Garrett Hampson (12) had all of last year. Nolan Jones is second on the club with seven swipes — tied for 103rd-most — and he didn’t get his first in-game action until the Rockies’ 52nd game of the year.

Leadoff Opportunities

The word opportunity was repeated during Tuesday’s media availability with Black and GM Bill Schmidt following the trade deadline. Trading five veterans for six pitching prospects not only gave the organization more quantity in the minors, it also opened some additional playing time for those younger players on the roster still establishing their careers. 

One less outfielder (Randal Grichuk) and first baseman (C.J. Cron) ensures increased opportunities for the likes of Elehuris Montero and Michael Toglia, plus consistent starts for Jones and Doyle regardless of any slumps or hiccups that may come their way.

The #Rockies bats have come alive! The young guys in Elehuris Montero, Nolan Jones & Michael Toglia (RBI) with three consecutive singles, then Jurickson Profar cuts into the lead even more with a 2-run 2B! It’s now 7-5 A’s in the 8th. Runner on 2nd, one out! pic.twitter.com/crPCf4lMsV

— Kelsey Wingert-Linch (@KelsWingert) July 29, 2023

As for opportunities in various spots in the lineup, particularly the leadoff spot, it’s somewhat of a different story.

“If you look at the National League with a pitcher not hitting any more, I think you can look at a lineup as circular as opposed to straight up,” Black said. “What you want is the guys at the top of your lineup potentially get the most at-bats during the course of the game. We’re not looking at trying to find a leadoff hitter, per se.

Jurickson Profar, a free agent at the end of the year and a player other teams showed interest in acquiring, has made 60 starts this year batting first. His on-base percentage is .328 for the season, better than the league average of .320, but it’s .316 when batting leadoff. He went 1-for-4 on Friday and reached on two other occasions via base on balls, scoring twice in the process. 

Charlie Blackmon, still on the injured list with a fractured right hand, could reprise his role atop the lineup. He has a .347 OBP over his 96 games, but just a .313 OBP during his 35 starts in 2023.

Charlie Blackmon leadoff homer! pic.twitter.com/o8w5a26ZuJ

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 25, 2023

The next two names on the frequency chart are Colorado’s two most exciting players: Ezequiel Tovar and Doyle.

“We’ve led off Doyle a couple of times. It gets interesting,” Black said of the 25-year-old center fielder. “So he leads the game off with that potential of power. And if he gets on, stolen base. That’s great.”

Doyle finished Friday’s game batting 1-for-5, lower his on-base percentage to .260 on the year. Even Tovar, who has hit first in the lineup five times in 2023, might not be an ideal fit at this time with his .291 OBP.

If Colorado wants to give Doyle more looks to see if his loud tools can indeed replicate that of Blackmon or simply get Tovar even more plate appearance during his impressive rookie campaign, no one would begrudge the organization for placing opportunity over on-base percentage during this transition season.