Recent History of the 10th Overall Selection in NHL Draft

When the Colorado Avalanche did not get the magical lottery combination last Saturday night during the NHL Draft Lottery, they were locked into the 10th overall selection in the first round. While there was much conversation about the team winning 3 games in a row to end the season and in the process likely costing them the 8th overall selection, I figured it was appropriate to get into it and see what the Avs were looking at in a historical context.

While every draft is different in terms of depth of talent and no players are the same, it’s always an interesting exercise when you look at which areas of the draft have a tendency to produce quality players versus others. Granted, this is in no way a definitive statement on the quality of player the Avalanche will select in June it’s still fun to look at the caliber of player that typically is selected in that draft slot.

Arbitrarily I’ve decided to go back to the 2005 draft when Sidney Crosby was selected and am skipping last year’s draft because it’s still too early to say what Anaheim has in Nick Ritchie.

2013

Valeri Nichushkin, Dallas Stars –

While Nichushkin was hurt basically all of this past season, his rookie season in 2013-14 showed the Stars have a very intriguing player on their hands as he scored 34 points in 79 games played. The early returns are very encouraging and assuming he returns to full health next season, Nichushkin is going to boost Dallas’ depth quite a bit in their bid to return to the playoffs. Should Nichushkin continue to build on his significant talent on a loaded offensive team like the Stars, this has the potential to be one of the better 10th overall selections of the past decade.

2012

Slater Koekkoek, Tampa Bay Lightning

Don’t ask me how to pronounce it but Slater Koekkoek is certainly on track to make a name for himself as he finished a prolific junior career last year before making the jump to pro hockey and put up an impressive 26 points in 72 games for the AHL’s Syracuse Crunch and even made 3 appearances for the Lightning this season. Certainly not eye-popping numbers but a promising start for a player still just 21 years and old and adjusting to the pro game. Still, this is a question mark for now but one with significant upside as he’s unproven at the highest level but has tons of time left to show he’s the real deal.

2011

Jonas Brodin, Minnesota Wild

Selected one slot before the Avalanche drafted Duncan Siemens, the Wild picked up so far the best player drafted 10th overall of the last ten years in Swedish defenseman Jonas Brodin. Brodin made the jump to North American hockey after one last season in the SHL, playing 9 games for the Houston Aeros and 45 more in the lockout-shortened 48-game 2012-13 season for the big club, finishing 4th in voting for the Calder Trophy, given annually to the league’s top rookie.

Paired consistently with Wild star Ryan Suter, Brodin has acclimated himself to big minutes and big responsibility and shown maturity far beyond his age as he has helped solidify the Minnesota blue line. Signed to a six-year extension in the summer of 2014, Brodin is set to shutdown Central Division opponents into the 2020’s and beyond.

Ideally, the Avalanche will select someone of Brodin’s quality with their own 10th pick because he has been a clear-cut home run for Minnesota.

2010

Dylan McIlrath, New York Rangers

One of the rare first round selections of the Rangers in recent seasons, McIlrath is the only player on this list who has been given a legitimate shot to make it but has yet to stick on an NHL roster. With 3 NHL games played versus 182 AHL games, the stay-at-home defender’s development has been nothing short of disappointing.

Some of the factors holding McIlrath back have been outside of his control, however, as one of the disadvantages of being drafted by a high quality team in “win now” mode is that opportunities will be scarce. While he has been given a chance and failed to capitalize, he’s still a young player growing and learning. Traditionally, players who play a more defensively-oriented game take longer to develop and McIlrath has also struggled with knee issues in recent years.

All of that together has made it anything but a smooth development track for the defender with a notorious mean streak but you have to begin to wonder how much more time he needs in the AHL before he is given another chance at making the Rangers. As the clock begins to tick louder, he comes closer to becoming a player in need of a change of scenery to kickstart his career.

As of now, McIlrath is one of the bigger disappointments drafted in the 10th slot.

2009

Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson, Edmonton Oilers

When the Edmonton Oilers won this last weekend’s lottery, there was a lot of unhappiness as it felt like the most poorly run, consistently incompetent team in the NHL over the last decade was being rewarded for it’s failures. Unlike Buffalo who cleared out their veterans on purpose, Edmonton has been trying to claw its way back to relevance for years. One of its missteps along the way was the selection of Paajarvi-Svensson.

In a wildly talented draft that has produced good to elite players all over the top half of the first round, Paajarvi-Svensson represents one of the biggest misses. Given repeated opportunities to make it work on bad Edmonton teams, Paajarvi-Svensson proved himself to be nothing more than an unproductive top 6 player and miscast bottom 6 talent.

Freed from the unfriendly confines of Edmonton, Paajarvi-Svensson was given a chance to succeed on a talented team in St. Louis and the result was the same as Edmonton. His 12 points in 55 games played was probably the death knell for his NHL career as he is clearly not going to live up to his potential. A change of scenery did nothing but solidify the growing belief that he’s a really good AHL player and nothing more than NHL filler on a good team and a below-average player on a bad NHL team.

2008

Cody Hodgson, Vancouver Canucks

A crafty center who was once linemates with current Avalanche star Matt Duchene, Hodgson spent several years as a top prospect for the Canucks. Seen as a guy blocked by a ridiculously talented Canucks team annually contending for titles, Hodgson’s sprint to the NHL was more of a slow jog.

An electric point-producing powerhouse at the junior level, Hodgson’s pro career began in 2010-11 as he put up 30 points in 52 games for the AHL’s Manitoba Moose, a very respectable total for such a young player. Given attempts to make the Canucks roster as a third-line center behind the Sedin twins and Ryan Kesler, Hodgson was supposed to provide the depth that would put the Canucks over the top but his mediocre showing eventually led to the Canucks looking elsewhere for their answer as they traded him to the Buffalo Sabres in exchange for hard-nosed forward Zack Kassian, himself a first round draft pick.

Suddenly on one of the league’s worst teams, Hodgson would produce well early on in his Buffalo tenure before completely cratering this past season, putting up an almost unfathomable 6 goals and 13 points in 78 games played. While still just 25, Hodgson has plenty of time to turn it around, especially given the security his lucrative contract that runs through the 2019 season provides him, and the influx of talent on the Sabres over the next two years should help him find his way.

Still, for one of hockey’s hottest prospects just a few short years ago, it’s been a significant fall from grace and his future is suddenly cloudier than ever.

2007

Keaton Ellerby, Florida Panthers

Drafted two spots before Ryan McDonagh and 4 spots before Kevin Shattenkirk, Keaton Ellerby is one of those guys who will likely end up more known for being the defenseman picked ahead of some of this generation’s great defensemen instead of being known for actually being one of this generation’s great defensemen himself.

Never a prolific scorer, the 6’5″ Ellerby was always a guy who was going to succeed in the dirty areas of the ice. Known for great size and footwork, Ellerby has so far failed to impress 3 organizations (the Panthers, Kings, and Jets, whom he currently plays for) to the tune of being handed a full-time job, averaging just 30 NHL games played per year over the last 7 seasons with a career high 54 in 2010-11.

If Ellerby was a mid-round pick then his career track would be pretty solid and respectable. As a guy drafted 10th overall, it’s nothing short of a failure for the Florida Panthers. This is definitely one of the situations the Avalanche are hoping to avoid.

2006

Michael Frolik, Florida Panthers

The first of Florida’s back-to-back 10th pick failures, Michael Frolik has actually become a serviceable NHL player. While gifted offensively, Frolik’s game has never seemed to shake the inconsistency issues that plagued him as a youngster and has become more of a mark of his frustrating game.

A fast skater with great hands and natural creativity with the puck, Frolik has still put up respectable numbers in his career as he has proven himself to be a valuable depth scorer for Winnipeg the last two seasons. While that’s all well and good, when you’re drafting in the top 10, you want an impact player, someone you can plug into your lineup and either get great defense or prolific offense from. Frolik is a nice player but nothing more.

2005

Luc Bourdon, Vancouver Canucks

By far the saddest story on this list, Bourdon was a very good two-way defenseman on his way to a solid career with the Canucks when he was tragically killed in a motorcycle crash in May of 2008.

RECAP:

The last ten years (excluding 2014 obviously) of the 10th overall selection have provided some highlights, some high-profile misses, and some players very much in between. In an ideal world, the Avalanche would find a way to get a player of Brodin’s caliber and avoid the messes that Paajarvi-Svensson and Ellerby became.