Rearview closeouts and pick-up points: How Denver’s guards are accounting for Damian Lillard, Trail Blazers’ sharpshooters in Round 2

It took less than 60 seconds for Damian Lillard to welcome the Nuggets back to 2019.

As Lillard galloped up the floor on the Trail Blazers first possession of Monday’s Game 1, his cavalry immediately moved into formation. Al-Farouq Aminu ran over to Lillard and set Portland’s guard a ball screen on the left wing. Enes Kanter stood right behind him, readying for a second screen for Lillard above the arc. On the opposite side of the floor, Moe Harkless stood on the right wing while C.J. McCollum drifted towards the corner. For a moment, all five Trail Blazers’ players were positioned outside of the 3-point arc.

It was an early reminder to the Nuggets that their second-round series against the Trail Blazers will be nothing like the seven-game grind they just experienced versus the Spurs, who hardly resembled a modern NBA offense.

Denver rarely saw alignments like this against San Antonio, who more often than not trotted one of their bigs to the elbow and the other to the dunker spot near the basket to begin many of its offensive possessions. The Spurs liked to post up and shoot mid-range jumpers while the Trail Blazers prefer to shuttle their bigs up the floor into a never-ending cycle of pick-and-rolls and shoot 3s. How different Denver’s two playoff opponents are stylistically can be explained by how many 3s both teams attempt. The Spurs averaged 19.9 3-point attempts throughout their seven-game series against the Nuggets. The Trail Blazers are hoisting 31.2 triples per game in the playoffs.

“It’s a completely different game and opponent,” Michael Malone said. “From Derrick White and DeMar DeRozan, who are not known as 3-point shooters, to guarding C.J. and Damian Lillard who are very efficient 3-point shooters. So your mindset has to change there alone.”

The stark contrast in styles means the Nuggets have to do a complete 180 when it comes to their defensive game plan and correct their muscle memory on the defensive end of the floor from the last two weeks.

While White and DeRozan didn’t and shouldn’t have scared Denver from 3, McCollum and Lillard do, and for good reason. Lillard is shooting 11 3s per game in the playoffs, while McCollum is averaging 7.5 and Portland’s backcourt combo got up a combined 19 triples in Game 1. The Nuggets were lucky that only six dropped through the net. While Denver was instructed to go under screens on White and DeRozan, they’ll go over whenever Lillard and McCollum dribble around one of their bigs. Portland was the ninth-best 3-point shooting team in the league this season partly because of their starting backcourt but also thanks to Seth Curry, the Trail Blazers’ long-range marksman who hit 45% of his 3s off their bench. 

The ball screens that Portland will set for its guards, which sometimes are positioned near the half-court line, have Nuggets guards and wings defending high up the floor especially when it comes to Lillard. The Trail Blazers’ point guard attempted 467 3s from 25-29 feet this season, the fifth-most in the league from that distance, and in the playoffs has already hoisted 49 triples from that range. You saw Lillard’s game and series-winner against Oklahoma City from 37 feet but you probably missed the other four 3s he splashed from at least 30 feet across those five games.

Lillard’s ability to rise and fire as soon as he crosses half-court means that two defensive principles have been stressed to the Nuggets in their preparation for their second-round series: pick-up points and rearview closeouts.

“Pick-up points” refers to how high up the floor Denver’s guards will begin to defend Lillard, which in this series is much closer to half-court than the Nuggets would pick up White, DeRozan or Bryn Forbes. Look how soon Malik Beasley began to shadow Lillard in Game 1 compared to where Jamal Murray picked up Derrick White, who doesn’t have Lillard’s “logo 3” in his repertoire, in Game 7 of Denver’s series against San Antonio.

Game 1 vs. Portland

Game 7 vs. San Antonio

The other term that Murray, Beasley, Gary Harris, Will Barton, Torrey Craig and anyone else guarding Lillard, McCollum or Curry will need to enter into their basketball Rolodex this series is “rearview closeouts.”

Lillard averaged 33 pick-and-rolls in Portland’s first-round series against Oklahoma City, much more than any Spurs guard ran against Denver, and with how the Nuggets plan to go over every ball screen involving the Trail Blazers’ three marksman — Lillard, McCollum, and Curry — their guards will spend a lot of time playing their man from behind.

The Nuggets let Lillard get off too many open looks from distance in Game 1 and fortunately for Denver, the All-Star only converted on four of his 12 triples. In the play below, Harris is able to recover quickly after he gets caught up on a screen and actually rejects Lillard as he rises from 3. Harris’ ability to get reattached to Lillard after going over screens will be especially useful if Jokic continues to play this low in the pick-and-roll.

Lillard wasn’t too impressed with Harris’ effort when asked about the block.

“It was desperation. I’m pretty sure the shot was pretty predictable,” Lillard said. “He was trying to make up ground. It was a high screen, he was coming from behind me.”

The Nuggets say that their first-round series against the Trail Blazers is all about defense. And they’re right. Denver is confident that it will be able to score the ball with ease against Portland’s defense, which ranked seventh in the league this season but lost its defensive anchor in Jusuf Nurkic to a season-ending leg injury late in the year, and the Nuggets’ ability to stop the Trail Blazers’ guards will decide the series. If Lillard and the rest of Portland’s sharpshooters are able to get comfortable from beyond the arc and find a steady rhythm from 3, it’s likely that the series will go seven. But if the Nuggets can limit the Trail Blazers’ 3-pointers, they’ll advance to the Western Conference Finals rather quickly.

A good number Denver should shoot for is 40. If the Trail Blazers shoot under 40% from 3 in the series, the Nuggets’ offense should be able to outscore Lillard’s bunch, as they did in Game 1 resulting in a convincing 121-113 win.

After a first-round series against the Spurs that was defined by the successful adjustments that the Nuggets made, Denver’s ability to re-tool its defensive scheme in Round 2 and how successful its players are in implementing it, will determine which team will be prepping for a matchup against the Warriors or Rockets in two weeks.

“That’s the beauty of the playoff. Adjustments. It’s always a chess match,” Paul Millsap said. “You’ve just got to be able to adjust. We’ve been doing a good job of adjusting. We’ll have to adjust again, and again but it’s fun. We love it.”