DENVER — Colorado State (0-2) is staring down the barrel of an 0-5 start. After dropping games to South Dakota State (2-0) and Vanderbilt (1-1) at home, the Rams now have trips to Toledo and Iowa, before coming back home to face the reigning conference champions (San Jose State) after a bye week.
As things currently stand the Rams are 14.5 point underdogs to the Toledo Rockets (1-1), who are coming off of a near upset of No. 8 Notre Dame (2-0). In the 32-29 toad loss to the Irish, the Rockets actually led at halftime (16-14). They carried that lead into the fourth quarter too. But after a back and forth affair with Notre Dame in the final period, Toledo was unable to prevent the top 10 opponent from mounting a game-winning drive on their home turf. With 1:09 to play, Notre Dame quarterback Jack Coan connected with tight end Michael Mayer for an 18-yard touchdown, before running back Kylin Williams then converted a 2-point attempt to seal the win.
“We’re not going to come out of this with any arrogance, but we’re going to come out of this with confidence,” Toledo head coach Jason Candle said postgame.
We always knew that the trip to Toledo would be difficult. Ram fans still vividly remember when the Rockets came into Canvas Stadium in 2019 and handed the Green & Gold a heartbreaking 41-35 loss on Ag Day. The two teams combined for over 1,200 yards of offense, 56 first downs, and a whole lot of explosive plays that night. Unfortunately, a struggling CSU defense surrendered 27 second half points, and after Toledo went up 6 late in the fourth, the Rams’ comeback effort came up just short, as E.J. Scott (WR) got tackled at the 2-yard line with no time left.
While Toledo does have a different QB than when they came to town two years ago, many of the playmakers from that night are still on their roster — none more explosive than running back Bryant Koback — the superstar that exploded for four touchdowns against the Rams in 2019. Really, there wasn’t anything CSU could do to stop him that night. Koback totaled 19 carries for 228 yards and an astounding average of 12 yards per carry. After hauling in an 8-yard touchdown reception in the first quarter, Koback had touchdown runs of 37 yards, 75 yards and 45 yards, all in the third quarter.
Sep 21, 2019; Fort Collins, CO, USA; Toledo Rockets running back Bryant Koback (22) carries the ball against the Colorado State Rams in the first quarter. Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Koback has had many impressive moments throughout his career and actually topped his career-high in rushing yards in a single game just one month after beating CSU. The former Kentucky Wildcat absurdly recorded 259 yards in a classic MAAC win over Eastern Michigan on Oct. 26, 2019. In total, he’s gone for 120 or more yards eight different times. Of all his biggest performances, however, 12 yards per carry and four total touchdowns is tough to argue against as the most impressive showing of his career. So you know that Koback is looking forward to another shot at the Rams, especially after his hot start in 2021.
Koback is averaging 5.8 yards per carry through two games. He’s scored three total touchdowns (two rushing). And what’s more, Koback managed to go for 114 yards on 20 carries against Notre Dame, including a 67-yard sprint.
The CSU defense is coming off of a much better showing in the trenches against Vanderbilt, so there is reason to believe they have a shot. It’s just tough to forget how easily an FCS team was able to run the ball against the Rams in Week 1. If they let Koback get going, it could be an extremely long day, particularly if Toledo’s defense is playing well.
The reality is that the Rams aren’t built to play from behind anyways, but doing so against a team with a veteran running back like Koback is a sure recipe for defeat. He’s the type of back that wears on an opponent and gets stronger as he goes. If CSU is going to have any chance of pulling the road upset, they are going to have to find a way to slow Koback down from the get go.
Along with stopping the run and limiting penalties — the Rams were far too undisciplined last week — the other big key for CSU is going to be the effectiveness of their own rushing attack. Running back David Bailey has proven that he can be a weapon when the offensive line can give him some room to work with. A’Jon Vivens has flashed as a change of pace guy as well. I think for CSU to best have a chance at victory, the offense is going to have to run the ball effectively, dictate the pace of the matchup, and most importantly, capitalize when they get in the red zone.
Hitting a couple of explosive plays will be big for keeping the Rockets defense honest, but much like it did in 2019, if this game turns into a shootout it’s going to drastically favor Toledo. Nobody plays in more offensive slugfests than teams from the MAAC. While you merely adapted to the shootout, Toledo was built for it. They live for that s***. So while it may not be the flashiest or sexiest approach, a grind-it-out game dictated by ball control is likely CSU’s best path for success.
After a disappointing start so far, the Ram faithful are desperate for something to feel good about. While it wouldn’t fix everything, stealing a tough game at Toledo would at least give everyone a little room for optimism for the first time this season. The trip to Iowa was always going to be brutal, and it looks even worse now that the Hawkeyes appear to be a legitimate contender in the Big Ten. But if CSU were to be competitive, maybe even win on Saturday, it could potentially be the foundation that CSU needs heading into conference play.
We’ve seen in the past that a strong showing as underdogs can help flip momentum quickly; just look at the 2013 season for example, when CSU started 2-4 overall, but credited a competitive showing at No. 1 Alabama as what proved they were capable of playing at a higher level. There’s no denying that what CSU has put out on the field so far has not been good enough. We’ll see what they’ve got up their sleeves now that their backs are against the wall.
Game Info
CSU and Toledo will kick off at 2:00 p.m. MT on Saturday afternoon. The game will be televised on ESPNU.
Ram fans looking for a place to watch the game should look no further than Panhandler’s Pizza in Fort Collins. Hang with Justin Michael, Lyndsey Sauer and the DNVR Rams community, and potentially win our newest Trey McBride t-shirt. The event is free but please RSVP to help us gauge attendance
