FRESNO, Calif. — It’s all about pride.
With five games left on the schedule, Colorado State football (2-5) is not in position to contend for a league championship — hell, even qualifying for a bowl game feels nearly impossible at this point — although it is still technically mathematically possible. Until the Rams lose a seventh game, their postseason dreams are still on the table.
In 2018, the Wyoming Cowboys started 2-6 and appeared to be dead in the water. Then, like the Undertaker rising in the middle of thing, the Pokes rolled their eyes from around the back of their heads and choke-slammed the competition.
Following a 34-21 victory in the Border War on Oct. 26, 2018, Wyoming went on to beat San Jose State and Air Force at home, before closing the year with a 28 point road win over New Mexico in the regular season finale. Over those final four weeks, the Cowboys outscored their opponents 124-60 and after not scoring more than 29 points all year, Wyoming managed to throw 30+ on the board in three of their final four matchups.
They didn’t end up receiving a bowl bid, which is still a contentious point for the folks in Laramie, Wyo., nevertheless, the Cowboys put themselves in position to do so with a four-game winning streak to finish .500.
The question of course, for the Ram faithful, is what changed for Wyoming in that final stretch and can CSU mimic their rivals from the north?
Let’s jump into it.
As stated above, CSU’s postseason dreams, though slim, are still alive. If CSU were to finish the year 4-1 or better, the green and gold would be bowl eligible for the first time since 2017. Unfortunately, the deeper that we dive into the numbers, the more unlikely this seems.
For starters, Wyoming was never actually a bad team in 2018 — they just played an absolutely brutal schedule.
Not only did Wyoming face a pair of Power 5 programs, Missouri and Washington State, but aside from New Mexico State in Week 0, every single FBS opponent that the Cowboys had to face prior to the CSU game, owned a winning record. In fact, during the month leading up to the Border War, Wyoming’s four opponents owned the following records going into their matchups: Boise State (2-1), Hawaii (5-1), Fresno State (4-1) and Utah State (5-1). The Pokes lost two of these games by one score and they were at least competitive in all four.
The key difference between last year’s Wyoming team and this year’s CSU squad is simple, though. Unlike their rivals to the north last season, CSU’s schedule will be more difficult down the stretch than it was in the beginning.
If Wyoming wouldn’t have had to go through a gauntlet in the first half of the year, chances are that the Cowboys would have been an eight or nine-win team in 2018. As we saw in the final third of the season, when the Cowboys played lesser opponents, they easily took care of business by leaning on a strong running game and a physical defense.
Comparatively, even if the Rams wouldn’t have lost their starting quarterback, it seems highly unlikely that CSU would have ended up winning more than seven games in 2019.
With Collin Hill in the lineup, maybe the green and gold would not have fallen to Toledo at home — though, it should be noted that the odds of beating a team that rushed for 436 yards and four scores aren’t good. He might have helped CSU steal a win at Utah State as well, but the important thing to remember is that it’s not like Hill’s presence would solve all the issues with the team. Hill would not make up for an inconsistent offensive line, CSU’s awful run defense or the many fumbles lost by running back Marvin Kinsey, prior to his suspension.
So while I would love to write that the Rams can copy Wyoming’s blueprint from last season, the truth is that they’re in a completely different situation.
CSU will begin its final stretch of the season Saturday evening at Bulldog Stadium. With two rivalry games and the best team in the MW still on CSU’s slate, it’s safe to say that Fresno State is a must-win game for the 2019 Rams.
