DENVER — Colorado State missed an opportunity to make a statement on Saturday night.
A win over Boise State would have kept the Rams alive in the race for the Mountain West Championship, a feat CSU hasn’t accomplished since 2002; it also would have been a significant moment for the program and how the college football world views it.
On a national level Boise State is one of, if not the most recognizable G5 program around. So whether they’re actually the best or not — it really doesn’t matter — a win over the Broncos means something to the folks that follow the game. And it certainly would have meant something to the Green & Gold, who’ve never beaten their interconference foes since they joined the league in 2011.
In the end Saturday was just another gut punch for the Ram Faithful, as CSU blew a 9 point halftime lead and fell to Boise State for the 11th year in a row (28-19).
With that in mind, let’s dive into it all.
Through the first two quarters on Saturday night CSU significantly outgained its division rival in total yardage (275 vs. 141). They ran more plays and averaged more yards per play than the Broncos too, both on the ground and through the air.
As well as the offense moved between the 20-yard lines, though, much like they have most of the year, when the Rams got deep into Boise State’s territory they had to settle for field goals every single time. That never changed either, which is why Cayden Camper finished with four field goals, three of which were from about 20 yards out and none of which were longer than 30 yards.
Although the Rams won the first half and technically still held a two-score lead at the break, the Broncos began their comeback effort with a 97-yard touchdown drive that ate up 6 minutes of clock in the second quarter. It gave Boise State confidence and made the score much closer than it ever should have been considering how well CSU played early. It was also the first indicator that one team was able to adjust on the fly, while the other couldn’t. Then in the second half Boise State simply built off of what they established late in the second quarter.
Over the final 30 minutes Boise State outscored the home team, 21-3, and really dictated the tone on both sides of the ball. More than anything, what stood out was the lack of adjustments on CSU’s end though. The Rams could not get the run game going with David Bailey, especially in plus territory, yet continued to try the same looks repeatedly. They couldn’t get off the field on defense. It was just a frustrating couple of quarters of football for a team that looked nothing like the group that dominated the first quarter a few hours before.
While I do understand the importance of being committed to the run game, sometimes you just have to be willing to lean on what’s working, and on Saturday it was Todd Centeio airing it out. It would have been nice to see the staff spread things out, particularly in the Red Zone, and let their QB, who was playing really well, attempt to get the ball into the hands of some of the other playmakers.
Trey McBride, Gary Williams and Cam Butler are all matchup mismatches due to their size, strength, speed and versatility. They move too well for linebackers and they’re too large for most defensive backs to deal with without getting handsy. They are perfect options for when you’re deep in enemy territory, but recently it seems like they only get consistent targets between the 20’s. It doesn’t make any sense to me.
Obviously some of what an offense is able to run in the Red Zone is dictated by what the defense is giving them. For instance if they are doubling McBride, it’s gonna be advantageous to look elsewhere in the condensed field. It’s not always as simple as just force feeding targets to No. 85. But what’s frustrating about the Boise State game, and really this whole year, is Addazio himself has said that one of CSU’s greatest strengths is its group of tight ends. He’s also said that not everything needs to be under center and in a tight formation down by the goal line, particularly with how effective the tight ends are as pass catchers. Yet every time CSU gets in the Red Zone, we see the same type of looks from the offense. It’s truly maddening.
Again, Red Zone offense can be complicated, so I don’t want to sit here and act like we have all of the information available. Sometimes a coach thinks he has the perfect scheme drawn up and something weird causes the play to be unsuccessful. But the Red Zone woes have been a persistent problem for the Rams. It’s a pretty large sample size through eight weeks. At what point does the staff recognize that what they are trying to do in plus territory simply isn’t working. There’s commitment and there’s stubbornness, and right now it feels like the latter is impacting the decision making of the staff. It cost them in a major way against Boise State this past weekend.
Over these last four weeks, if nothing else it would be encouraging to see the Rams work through some of the struggles that have plagued them in the Red Zone all year. Qualifying for the postseason is still on the table but it feels like a long shot given the level of competition CSU has to play down the stretch. If the Rams can identify some things that work, particularly with skill guys that will be around in 2022, it could be really beneficial for CSU’s success in the future. At the very least it may help lower my blood pressure.
We’ll see what the Rams up their sleeves in Wyoming.
