2023 is here and with it comes an opportunity for Colorado State to make a statement in all sports, but especially on the football field.
Despite coming off of another losing season, the fifth in six years, there is reason to believe that the Rams can build off of the progress made at the end of 2022 and take the next step in the evolution of the program under Jay Norvell.
So with that in mind, DNVR Rams presents 20 predictions for 2023.
1. CSU Football will return to the postseason
The Rams have not made a bowl game since 2017. I think that streak will end in 2023. In order for that to happen, the offensive line will certainly have to be more consistent than what we saw this past fall. But with the talent that this squad returns on both sides of the ball, it feels like the perfect opportunity to finally crack at least six wins and play in a bowl. While a lot of the games do not hold the same weight that they used to when it comes to national interest, getting that extra month of practice would be really beneficial for player development. But more than anything, it would be a great moment for a fan base that is starving for success.
2. The Rams will win a trophy game
If CSU is going to qualify for the postseason, the Rams have to be more competitive in the local matchups. The Rams have lost six straight to Air Force, five straight to Colorado, and six of the last seven to Wyoming. That can’t continue if the Rams want to make any type of noise in 2023, especially when two out of the three are conference games. The most successful periods in program history coincide with the times when CSU was able to hold its own in rivalries. I believe that we will see the Green & Gold return one of the traveling trophies to Fort Collins in this upcoming season.
3. Clay Millen will throw 20+ touchdown passes
Despite taking a beating and battling through injuries, Clay Millen was able to set an FBS record for completion percentage by a freshman quarterback (72.2%). The figure was the best in program history as well, shattering the previous high mark from Pete Thomas (64.7) back in 2010-11. Along with being extremely efficient, Millen largely displayed good decision making, as he only threw six interceptions in 10 games. The stat that I expect to see spike the most in 2023 though is touchdown passes. After throwing 10 as a freshman, Millen will at least double that total in his second season as a starter.
4. At least three Rams will record 500 or more receiving yards
One of the biggest benefits of the Air Raid is that the system gives the quarterback a multitude of options to throw the ball to. When things are really clicking, the offense may have five different guys finish with a couple of catches in a game, and that’s what we need to see more of in 2023. In Norvell’s final season at Nevada (2021), five different players had at least 450 receiving yards and four of them finished north of 600 yards. Conversely, in 2022, Tory Horton was CSU’s lone receiver to record 500 or more yards — a big reason why the squad did not light it up like some of the offenses in Reno, NV. over the years. The good news is with Horton running it back, and the younger guys now having a year under their belt in the system, it feels reasonable to say at least three Rams will achieve the feat in 2023.
5. Tory Horton will catch 10 touchdowns
Tory Horton is as talented as they come. Despite being the focal point of opposing defenses, the 6-foot-2 wide receiver consistently displayed throughout 2022 that if you give the QB enough time to get Horton the ball, good things can happen for your team downfield. That’s why in 2023, even with more guys involved in the passing offense, Horton will become just the seventh CSU player in school history to record 10 touchdown receptions in a single season.
6. Tory Horton will become third Ram to have multiple three-touchdown receptions games
If Horton is going to record a 10-touchdown season, having a game or two where he absolutely goes off is likely going to be key. That’s why I’m also predicting that Horton will join Rashard Higgins and Michael Gallup as the only wide receivers in school history to have multiple games with three or more touchdown receptions in their career. Gallup caught three TDs three times between 2016-17, which is the most by any individual. Higgins, however, did it twice, but does own the school record with four touchdown catches against Tulsa in 2014.
7. The Rams will have a tight end record 50 catches
Due to the injuries that CSU had to deal with in the trenches, the Rams didn’t get a ton of production from the tight ends in 2022 because they were often tasked with helping in pass protection. When you look at the way that Norvell used Cole Turner at Nevada over the years though, it’s clear that it’s an important role in the Air Raid. The 6-foot-6, 240-pound vertical threat gave Carson Strong a weapon to attack the middle of the field with, and obviously he was a tremendous threat in the Red Zone as well. While it would be bold to assume that someone will replicate Turner’s numbers — the 2022 fifth-round pick had 111 catches and 19 touchdowns between 2020-21 — I do think someone in a talented group will break out. Jordan Williams flashed his receiving prowess late in the 2022 season. And Norvell said himself that the 2023 signees are some of the best he’s ever brought in at the position. Dallin Holker, a BYU transfer, is a guy for Ram fans to keep an eye on in the Spring Game.
8. Avery Morrow will rush for 1,000 yards
Avery Morrow finished with the third-most yards per game amongst Mountain West running backs against league competition in 2022 (95.6 YPG) and really solidified his role as CSU’s bellcow back between the tackles. While the arrival of Damian Henderson and Justin Marshall will certainly be something to keep in mind — both guys appear to be incredibly dynamic athletes that could see playing time early — Morrow should likely still get the majority of the carries in 2023. And after coming extremely close to doing so this past season, Morrow will become CSU’s first 1,000-yard rusher since Dalyn Dawkins in 2017.
9. Mo Kamara will finish 2023 in the top 3 all-time in sacks
With 16.5 career sacks to his name, Mohamed Kamara is one of the best returning edge rushers in all of college football. After electing to come back for a fifth year in the program, the 6-foot-3, 245-pound quarterback killer will record a double-digit sack season and surpass Mike Bell (25) for the third-most sacks in CSU Football history.
10. CSU’s defense will allow 20 points or less per game for the season
After losing by double digits in each of the first four games of the 2022 campaign, Colorado State’s defense really stepped it up under first-year coordinator Freddie Banks and at least gave the Rams an opportunity to be competitive throughout the league slate. With the majority of the unit’s starters returning for the 2023 season, I’m predicting the group will give up one touchdown less per game than they did in 2022 (26.9) and finish as the best scoring defense since 2000 (18.8 PA/G).
11. Jack Howell will become the first DB to lead team in tackles in consecutive years
It’s not very often that a defensive back leads the team in total tackles, but that’s exactly what sophomore safety Jack Howell (108 total) was able to do this past fall. Going back to 2000, Howell is just one of five DBs to lead a CSU defense in total tackles for the year, so he’s already in rare company. If Howell can do it again in 2023 though, he will really separate himself from the pack, as no DB has ever done it two seasons in a row. At least not since 1974, which is when CSU’s official record book starts to list the team’s leading tackler each year. With the way that the athletic safety has a nose for the football, and is seemingly in on every just about every play, if anyone can make history at the position it’s Howell.
12. The defense will score four touchdowns
There are few things more exciting in football than a defensive touchdown. A pick-six, the scoop and score, it’s a game-changing moment that can be the difference between winning and losing. With so many disruptive playmakers returning for the Rams on the defensive side of the ball in 2023, I’m predicting that CSU will produce four or more defensive scores.
13. The Rams will have a winning record on the road
Winning on the road is one of the most difficult things to do in college sports. Looking at the 2023 schedule though, on paper, CSU’s away games appear to be slightly easier than the home slate. That’s why I’m predicting that CSU Football will have a winning record on the road for the first time since 2017, which is uncoincidentally the last time the Rams were able to reach a bowl game. A big key will be at least going .500 in the non-conference slate, but if CSU can do that, going 3-1 against Hawaii, UNLV, Utah State and Wyoming feels realistic.
14. Utah State is going down
It’s always an entertaining game when CSU and Utah State get together. It also feels like something weird typically goes down between these two. The overturned Hail Mary, the special teams debacle in 2021, etc. After dropping four consecutive tight games to the Aggies, the Rams will get back on track and build on their lead in the all-time series (39-37-2).
15. Someone will catch an 80-yard reception (or more)
Maybe it will be a screen that breaks loose, maybe it will be a vertical route where a defensive back just gets torched, but someone on the team in 2023 will record a reception of at least 80 yards. If they do so, they will be just the 15th player in school history to record a reception of 80 or more yards. The most recent was Warren Jackson against New Mexico in 2019 (87 yards).
16. CSU will finish with a positive turnover margin
One of the biggest issues for the Green & Gold over the last couple of years has been how poorly the Rams have fared when it comes to the turnover margin. CSU ranked 105th in the FBS in 2022 with a turnover margin of -5. The year before that the Rams also had a turnover margin of -5 and ranked 94th in the FBS. Fortunately for Ram fans, while it has been rough of late, there is hope that CSU can turn things around under Norvell. Nevada finished No. 1 in the FBS in turnover margin in 2021 (+16). If CSU is able to finish positive in this figure, it will be the first time they’ve done so in a full season since 2017 (+2). The Rams did finish +1 in 2020 in only four games played.
17. CSU will double its average points per game from 2022
While CSU did play much more competitively down the stretch in 2022 than they did in the first month of the season, going 12 games without scoring 20 points was not what the fans had in mind when they envisioned what the Air Raid would be like in Fort Collins. At 13.2 points per game, the offense was by far the least productive of Norvell’s head coaching career. And obviously that needs to change if the Rams are going to be a winning team. Over the five years that Norvell and Co. were leading the Wolf Pack, Nevada averaged 29.2 points per game. I’m predicting that CSU comes close to that figure and finishes with an average of roughly 26.4 points per game.
18. Someone new will win the Mountain West in 2023
The Mountain West has had a title game for the last 10 seasons and over that time, five schools have managed to come out on top. Boise State and Fresno State lead the way with three apiece over the last decade. San Diego State is next with a pair. Finally, Utah State (2021) and San Jose State (2020) are the only other programs that can brag about having a MW championship in the College Football Playoff era. While it would not be surprising at all to see Boise State make another run in 2023 with Taylen Green at QB, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that one of the other seven schools in the league finds a way to take the title.
19. Freddie Banks will be a hot P5 candidate
If CSU’s defense lives up to expectations and builds off of what was largely a very successful 2022 season for the unit, defensive coordinator Freddie Banks is going to be a popular candidate for a power five job. After what he already accomplished at Montana State, it’s safe to say that Banks is a rising star in the industry. And it’s pretty much impossible not to come away impressed if you are fortunate enough to talk about the game with him. I certainly hope that CSU can hang onto Banks for at least another couple of seasons, but it seems likely that he will at least get some phone calls in the not-too-distant future.
20. CSU will beat a P5 team
The Rams will have at least two chances to earn a victory over a team from a power five conference in 2023. While they will most certainly be underdogs in both of those games, I’m predicting that CSU finds a way to beat Washington State or Colorado.
