Rams Round table: ESPN's FPI Rankings discussion

 

ESPN has recently published it’s latest 2016 Football Power Index (FPI) rankings for the upcoming season. Colorado State appears as the 97th team in their predictive simulator, as only the 8th-best team in the Mountain West Conference.

The system by which the FPI rankings are calculated are explained as follows on ESPN:

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.”

Notable rivals such as Colorado are a full 38 spots ahead of the Rams in the rankings, while Air Force is a full 30 spots ahead of CSU, despite the Rams owning the Ram-Falcon Trophy. Even Border War rivals Wyoming are nipping at the Rams heels ranked 101st in the FPI. All this seems to indicate that the simulators and computers at ESPN aren’t very optimistic going into head coach Mike Bobo’s second season.

Yet, lots of things seem to be in place for the Rams to succeed (especially on offense) in the new coach’s system. But hey, I’m no computer, what do I know.

So we decided to start a roundtable discussion: What do you think about these rankings Rich?

Rich Kurtzman:

From afar, these rankings seems legitimate. But, for those who follow the Colorado State Rams football team more closely, 97th-best in the country is a joke.

On the offensive side of the ball, CSU will be without their biggest playmaker in Rashard Higgins in 2016; that’s a major loss. So, perhaps ESPN’s computers had an affinity for “Hollywood” and see him moving up and into the NFL as a major hinderance on the Rams’ offense. They’d be wrong, though, simply because Mike Bobo’s offense is predicated on the run game. And, if you were to ask me — and thanks for setting this round table up, Andre — CSU’s offense will improve under Bobo in 2016 due to the fact they want to run the ball first and foremost.

Izzy Matthews is a name many in the Mountain West, as well as the nation, will get to learn soon. He’s a beast and the kid ran with toughness to finish out last season, which was only his freshman campaign. Matthews has lost a little weight, looks faster and quicker, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the starting back in the fall. Don’t count out Dalyn Dawkins, who delighted last spring and played decently last season. He and Matthews together would be a solid “thunder and lightning” mix; but that would leave out three incoming freshman this fall, each of whom bring speed, shiftiness, quicks and more.

At quarterback, the Rams are almost guaranteed to be improved from last season no matter if Nick Stevens or Faton Bauta start. Stevens will be in his second year in the offense and improved greatly down the stretch run of the 2016 season. If he wins the starting job, it’ll be due to preparation, studying the playbook and his chemistry with teammates. If Bauta wins the job, it means he beat out Stevens, which would again be an improvement over last year, at least in the eyes of coaches. It’s hard to say for sure what Bauta can do, as a graduate transfer from Georgia with one last shot to play, but many Ram fans think he could be the team’s saving grace, offensively.

Defensively is where the Rams could see a dip in production after losing eight seniors. The defensive backfield must quickly adapt to a whole host of new personnel, while there will now be three down lineman and four linebackers (3-4) rather than the old 4-3 scheme. A 3-4 fits CSU better due to their smaller, faster linebackers, even if depth at the position is lacking due to an injury to Deonte Clyburn.

And on special teams, the Rams will miss Joe Hansley’s punt returns and his ability to take it to the house, but Deionte Gaines improved in the kickoff return portion of his game last year and looks to take over punt returning, too. With a new special teams coordinator in Jaime Bryant, the Rams will be improved in this phase of the game, in all likelihood.

The bottom line: CU barely beat CSU last season and I don’t see the Buffs making a giant leap to be listed that much higher than the Rams. And Colorado State defeated AFA last year for the first time in nine; the Rams are close to, if not equally as good as the Falcons, too.

Simply, Colorado State may not be a powerhouse competing for a Top 25 spot this year, but they aren’t as bad as 97th, either. More like middle of the pack, around 50-60.

Justin Michael:

Ultimately there are many questions surrounding the depth chart next year, so being ranked 97th nationally is not much of a surprise, especially considering ESPN does not generally pay much attention to the green and gold. However, there is no way CSU will actually be the 97th best team in the nation, and anybody covering the team would agree. CSU has a lot of holes to fill, but there is a lot of talent on this team, and an experienced coaching staff. I expect Colorado State to have a solid year under Bobo and company, ultimately having a chance to compete for the division, and a shot at the Mountain West title.

Offensively, CSU should be solid all around. Up front, the Rams return four starters on the offensive line, which is probably the most stable position group on the depth chart heading into the season. Behind the O-line, CSU should be able to execute their “ground and pound” offensive approach in 2016, with a stable of talented running backs currently on the roster, and Marvin Kinsey and Rashaad Boddie joining the team in the fall.

The biggest questions for the Colorado State offense in Year Two under Mike Bobo, is : Who will be be playing quarterback? QB play should improve for the Rams, no matter who is named the starter. Both Nick Stevens and Faton Bauta are experienced quarterbacks, and are familiar in offensive coordinator Will Friend’s system. Stevens led the team to a bowl appearance in 2015, and has been poised throughout the offseason. However, Bauta is “Bobo’s guy,” and has a rocket arm, coming out of the SEC.

Whoever wins the job will have talented pass-catchers, both at wide receiver and tight end. Junior WR Xavier Williams caught three touchdowns in the team’s scrimmage Saturday, and has seen playing time throughout his career at CSU. Sophomore Olabisi Johnson is listed as a starter this spring and has the potential to break out as well. Nolan Peralta is expected to be the team’s No. 1 tight end, and in a rollout heavy offense, could have a big year.

On defense, the board is practically wide open, but CSU is confident with an experienced defensive coordinator Marty English leading the way. A lot of talent on the defensive side will be joining the team this fall, so, multiple positions are still wide open for the taking. Experienced players like linebackers Kevin Davis and Josh Watson will need to step up. Deonte Clyburn, who is missing the entire offseason, due to injury, showed signs of greatness last season, and the Rams will be counting on him to recover and make a similar impact.

The secondary is thin right now, and CSU has somewhat improvised in the time-being. Jordon Vaden has switched from wide receiver to cornerback and seems to be handling his own on the defensive side. Tyree Simmons is the most experienced DB in the CSU secondary and should ultimately be the team’s No. 1 corner.

It is way too early to make accurate predictions for the fall season, but considering the talent and experience on the roster and in the staff, it is safe to assume the Rams will be much better than “the worldwide leader in sports” is giving them credit for.

Andre Simone:

What can I say that you haven’t already said guys? First off, I echo both your thoughts completely.

Especially on offense, where the Rams should be more experienced and seem to have all the personnel to succeed in the “ground and pound” attack that Bobo is trying to implement.

The hogs up front should be the identity of the team, and the running game should become a true strength given the talent in the backfield. I fully expect the quarterback play to be improved and to be above average for Mountain West standards.

We all agree the defense is the big question mark, but there’s some reasons for optimism with coach English being there and some promising linebackers poised for breakout seasons.

What surprises me most of all with these rankings, more so than the 97th national rank, is that CSU is only the 8th best team in the Mountain West.

Since the conference has gone to the two division format in 2013 the Rams have never finished worst than the sixth-best record in the conference, something they did last year.

If there was going to be a year where the Rams fell off completely it would have been last season. The losses of talent had added up from some great teams in 2013 and 2014 and the new coaching staff had very little time to focus on recruiting and brought in a small (in numbers at least) class. Add in the coaching staff change and losing the best signal caller since Bradley Van Pelt rocked with the green and gold, and it all made for a difficult situation that could have spelled disaster.

Yet, the team rolled with the punches and finished the season off strong with four consecutive wins and a tight bowl game loss. Even more promising going into next season was that the offense kicked things into gear averaging an impressive 32 points in the last 5 games of the season.

The experience and resiliency shown at the end of 2015 promises improvement for 2016, and especially with the returning talent on offense and how they fit the identity Bobo is trying to implement. All signs point in the right direction. If the defense can just develop and play at a conference average level, the Rams should surprise the computers and make a push as one of the four or five best teams in the Mountain West next season.