Rams must play own game to have chance to upset Buffaloes

After some relatively easy games to begin the 2016-17 season, Colorado State men’s basketball will head south on the interstate Wednesday night for a date in Boulder with the University of Colorado. It’s the first of two significant non-conference games the Rams will play this week, with the second being a home matchup with Wichita State on Saturday.

It doesn’t look all that promising for CSU to pull the upset against the Buffaloes. CU holds a 53-8 advantage over the green and gold at Coors Event Center. In his 25-year coaching career punctuated by winning, Larry Eustachy owns just a pair of wins in seven tries in Boulder.

Both teams boast a record of 5-1, but that doesn’t necessarily mean these squads are evenly matched. Three of the Buffaloes’ six games have come against teams that could be dancing in March. CU beat two of them (Texas and Wofford) and lost to the other (Notre Dame) by just six points.

CSU, on the other hand, has yet to play a traditionally solid team. Their one loss came on the road at Stanford, an average to below-average Pac-12 team.

The Rams likely still have what happened in last year’s meeting fresh in their minds. CSU got off to a white-hot start from the field, going 7-of-10 from the field and jumping out to a 52-39 halftime lead. But the Buffaloes stormed back with a 15-1 run to open the second half.

CU cruised to an 88-77 victory in Moby Arena.

This year’s game will have a much different feel. The Rams won’t have Joe De Ciman, John Gillon, Antwan Scott or Gian Clavell. That quartet combined for 64 of CSU’s 77 points last December.

Tad Boyle’s Buffaloes, however, don’t have the luxury of having an inside presence that Josh Scott brought for years. And Denver East’s Dominique Collier is out indefinitely with an injury.

The Buffs will be heavy favorites in this game and for good reason. They’re outscoring opponents by an average of 15 points per game (78.7 – 63.5). They shoot 39 percent from beyond the arc and out-rebound opponents by nearly nine boards per game (43.7 – 35).

All of that said, there are ways for Eustachy and company to escape with a win.

Here are the five keys to the game for CSU:

1. Hold true to defense and rebounding

The Rams have limited opponents to just 62 points and a 36 percent field goal percentage through six games. They’ve also controlled the glass with a +10.8 rebounding margin. CSU must do more of the same against the Buffs, who shoot 45 percent and also do a great job pulling down boards.

2. Control Xavier Johnson

The 6-7 senior guard leads the Buffaloes in scoring with 15 points per game. Along with Derrick White, Johnson is the guy that makes the CU offense go. Look for Eustachy to give Emmanuel Omogbo the assignment of Johnson.

3. Get the ball inside

It’s no secret that CSU has been abysmal shooting the basketball. The Rams have shot just 27 percent from three-point land. They must get the ball inside and get to the free throw line, where they shoot nearly 77 percent. It’s a bonus if the Rams can get CU in foul trouble.

4. Someone besides Omogbo must step up

Fresh off his Mountain West Player of the Week honor, Omogbo will look to record his fifth double-double of the season. But who else will play big in this one? J.D. Paige will come off a game where he scored a career-high 23 points. Che Bob has been a spark plug off the bench, averaging 11 points per game. Eustachy could use a special performance from someone like Devocio Butler.

5. Keep the Buffs from getting to 70

It’s hard to imagine CSU scoring 70 or more points on the road in a raucous environment. Plus, they don’t have the offensive firepower to play H-O-R-S-E like they could with teams last season. That’s why it’s imperative the Rams limit CU to 69 or fewer points.